BCS Analysis 11/22

[MikeyJoe]

1. Florida (1)
Remaining games: 11/28 vs Florida State, 12/5 vs. Alabama
In/Out: Pretty inconceivable that Florida could not make it in. Even if they drop two straight, I still see them getting an at large bid. But they should beat Florida State this week.

2. Alabama (2)
Remaining games: 11/27 @ Auburn, 12/5 vs. Florida
In/Out: See Florida. They'd have to lose to Auburn and Florida for there to even be a question here.

3. Texas (3)
Remaining games: 11/26 @ Texas A&M, 12/5 vs. Nebraska
In/Out: Like 1-2, should be in no matter what, even as an at large if they drop two. A&M shouldn't be a problem, and then they're in for sure even if they drop the Big12 title game.

4. TCU (4)
Remaining games: 11/28 vs. New Mexico
In/Out: TCU wraps up their conference schedule this week with a tough matchup against haha I'm just kidding. They'll beat New Mexico and make it as an at large pick.

5. Cincinnati (5)
Remaining games: 11/27 vs. Illinois, 12/5 @ Pittsburg
In/Out: In if they win the Big East. If they lose to Illinois (which isn't likely), they'd need the Big East at large for sure. The thing that helps Iowa is they're not an attractive at large pick from a fanbase size perspective if they don't win the Big East.

6. Boise State
Remaining games: 11/27 vs. Nevada, 12/5 vs New Mexico State
In/Out: I still say they're out even if they're undefeated, but Nevada could make that irrelevant next week. They've been on a tear lately blowing out the same bad teams Boise has. This could be an entertaining game.

7. Georgia Tech (6)
Remaining Games: 11/28 vs. Georgia, 12/5 vs Clemson
In/Out: In if they win the ACC title game. GA Tech is a potential at large pick if they lose a close game in the ACC title game to Clemson.

8. Oregon: (7)
Remaining games: 12/3 vs Oregon State
In/Out: In with the Pac 10 auto pick. I'm not sure about the Pac 10's tiebreaker rules, but this should be irrelevant for Iowa. The 2nd place Pac 10 team will have a minimum of 3 losses and won't get an at large pick.

9. Pittsburgh
Remaining games: 11/27 @ West Virginia, 12/5 vs Cincinnati
In/Out: Likely will need the Big East auto bid to get in. I don't think they get in with two losses as an at large if they lose to Cincy.

10. Ohio State (8)
In/Out: In as the Big 10 auto bid

11. Iowa (9)
In/Out: I think they can get an at large pick

12. Oklahoma State (10)
Remaining games: 11/28 @ Oklahoma
In/Out: I'm predicting them in as an at large if they beat Oklahoma next week.

13. Penn State
In/Out: I think Iowa vs Penn State is going to be the main decision with the remaining at large bid.

14. Virginia Tech
Remaining games: 11/28 @ Virginia
In/Out: Potential at large selection, but they already have three losses. I don't think they get it.

[MikeyJoe]

Rooting interest for Iowa:

SEC: Irrelevant. They're getting two teams no matter what.
Pac 10: Irrelevant. They're getting one team no matter what.

11/26: Texas over Texas A&M
11/27: Illinois over Cincy (but see 12/5)
11/27: Nevada over Boise
11/27: West Virginia over Pitt
11/28: New Mexico over TCU
11/28: Oklahoma over Oklahoma State
11/28: Virginia over Virginia Tech
11/28: Georgia over Georgia Tech (See 12/5)
12/5: Texas over Nebraska
12/5: Cincy/Pitt: Cincy if they beat Illinois, Pitt if Cincy loses to Illinois
12/5: New Mexico over Boise State
12/5: Georgia Tech/Clemson: GA Tech if they beat Georgia, Clemson if GA Tech loses to Georgia

Not all of these games are necessary, but they would all help with Iowa getting an at large bid.

[RiotFan]

Rooting interest for Iowa:

SEC: Irrelevant. They're getting two teams no matter what.
Pac 10: Irrelevant. They're getting one team no matter what.

11/26: Texas over Texas A&M
11/27: Illinois over Cincy (but see 12/5)
11/27: Nevada over Boise
11/27: West Virginia over Pitt
11/28: New Mexico over TCU
11/28: Oklahoma over Oklahoma State
11/28: Virginia over Virginia Tech
11/28: Georgia over Georgia Tech (See 12/5)
12/5: Texas over Nebraska
12/5: Cincy/Pitt: Cincy if they beat Illinois, Pitt if Cincy loses to Illinois
12/5: New Mexico over Boise State
12/5: Georgia Tech/Clemson: GA Tech if they beat Georgia, Clemson if GA Tech loses to Georgia

Not all of these games are necessary, but they would all help with Iowa getting an at large bid.

Nice work Mikey. I think you can add the Big East to the irrelevant category. They're only getting 1 team (Pitt or Cincy).

[MikeyJoe]

Nice work Mikey. I think you can add the Big East to the irrelevant category. They're only getting 1 team (Pitt or Cincy).
The only reason I don't is that if Cincy blows out Illinois and loses a close one to Pitt, they could be an at large selection. Their small fan base hurts them, but with only one loss it's far from automatic that they'd be left out.

The main thing that helps Iowa right now is that when I look at that rooting interest, we don't need to root for any big crazy upsets to get in. In fact, we want most of the conference favorites to win out. The only upsets that would really help us are the non-BCS schools losing a game to drop contention for an at large bid.

[Bovert]

6. Boise State
Remaining games: 11/27 vs. Nevada, 12/5 vs New Mexico State
In/Out: I still say they're out even if they're undefeated, but Nevada could make that irrelevant next week. They've been on a tear lately blowing out the same bad teams Boise has. This could be an entertaining game.

Nevada and Boise are very similar, except for the 3 less points a game Nevada scores and the 8 more points a game Nevada gives up. And oh yeah, the 3 more losses they have too.

Boise by 3+ TDs on Friday and then Hawkeyes/Broncos in Glendale. Let's get it on!!!!

[MikeyJoe]

6. Boise State
Remaining games: 11/27 vs. Nevada, 12/5 vs New Mexico State
In/Out: I still say they're out even if they're undefeated, but Nevada could make that irrelevant next week. They've been on a tear lately blowing out the same bad teams Boise has. This could be an entertaining game.

Nevada and Boise are very similar, except for the 3 less points a game Nevada scores and the 8 more points a game Nevada gives up. And oh yeah, the 3 more losses they have too.
Is that supposed to contradict something I said?

[Bovert]

Nice work Mikey. I think you can add the Big East to the irrelevant category. They're only getting 1 team (Pitt or Cincy).
The only reason I don't is that if Cincy blows out Illinois and loses a close one to Pitt, they could be an at large selection. Their small fan base hurts them, but with only one loss it's far from automatic that they'd be left out.

The main thing that helps Iowa right now is that when I look at that rooting interest, we don't need to root for any big crazy upsets to get in. In fact, we want most of the conference favorites to win out. The only upsets that would really help us are the non-BCS schools losing a game to drop contention for an at large bid.

This is impossible because Illinois plays in the mighty Big 10 and Cincy plays in the lowly Big East and thus Judge Kemp has already determined Illinois will beat them.

[MikeyJoe]

Nice work Mikey. I think you can add the Big East to the irrelevant category. They're only getting 1 team (Pitt or Cincy).
The only reason I don't is that if Cincy blows out Illinois and loses a close one to Pitt, they could be an at large selection. Their small fan base hurts them, but with only one loss it's far from automatic that they'd be left out.

The main thing that helps Iowa right now is that when I look at that rooting interest, we don't need to root for any big crazy upsets to get in. In fact, we want most of the conference favorites to win out. The only upsets that would really help us are the non-BCS schools losing a game to drop contention for an at large bid.

This is impossible because Illinois plays in the mighty Big 10 and Cincy plays in the lowly Big East and thus Judge Kemp has already determined Illinois will beat them.
Okay?

[RiotFan]

Nice work Mikey. I think you can add the Big East to the irrelevant category. They're only getting 1 team (Pitt or Cincy).
The only reason I don't is that if Cincy blows out Illinois and loses a close one to Pitt, they could be an at large selection. Their small fan base hurts them, but with only one loss it's far from automatic that they'd be left out.

The main thing that helps Iowa right now is that when I look at that rooting interest, we don't need to root for any big crazy upsets to get in. In fact, we want most of the conference favorites to win out. The only upsets that would really help us are the non-BCS schools losing a game to drop contention for an at large bid.

I can understand where the opinion comes from, but the bowls won't have good thoughts in their minds about Cincy after last year's Orange Bowl. I don't see it happening based on their poor, poor ticket sales to that game.

[Judge Kemp]

Nice work Mikey. I think you can add the Big East to the irrelevant category. They're only getting 1 team (Pitt or Cincy).
The only reason I don't is that if Cincy blows out Illinois and loses a close one to Pitt, they could be an at large selection. Their small fan base hurts them, but with only one loss it's far from automatic that they'd be left out.

The main thing that helps Iowa right now is that when I look at that rooting interest, we don't need to root for any big crazy upsets to get in. In fact, we want most of the conference favorites to win out. The only upsets that would really help us are the non-BCS schools losing a game to drop contention for an at large bid.

This is impossible because Illinois plays in the mighty Big 10 and Cincy plays in the lowly Big East and thus Judge Kemp has already determined Illinois will beat them.

You're right. My first prediction of WV knocking them off was WAAAAY off the mark . . .:rolleyes:

[PlannedSickDays]

nice job Mikey

[douglasbader]

Bovert is a huge douche.

[Bovert]

Bovert is a huge douche.

Thinking and arguing that Boise and Cincy are better than most on this board think they are = being a huge douche

Internet stalking nlp = being awesome

[douglasbader]

Bovert is a huge douche.

Thinking and arguing that Boise and Cincy are better than most on this board think they are = being a huge douche

Internet stalking nlp = being awesome

Bovert = Douche

[MikeyJoe]

Bumped to remind people of today's rooting interest for Iowa:

11/28: New Mexico over TCU 12:00 CST
11/28: Oklahoma over Oklahoma State 11:30 CST
11/28: Virginia over Virginia Tech 2:30 CST
11/28: Georgia over Georgia Tech (See 12/5) 7:00 CST

Also, with the West Virginia win over Pitt and Cincy over Illinois yesterday, that means we're rooting for Cincy next week. Boise beating Nevada didn't help, but we weren't really counting on that one. Other than that, Texas over A&M and Bama pulling it out over Auburn helped keep things stable at the top.

[MikeyJoe]

Other games of interest (not as big of an impact as those listed above, but couldn't hurt):

South Carolina over Clemson 11:00 CST
USF over Miami 2:30 CST
UCLA over USC 9:00 CST

[Verbal]

South Carolina over Clemson 11:00 CST

Not sure this one matters at all. Only way Clemson is getting in is by winning the ACC championship game next week against GT. And they've got a very good shot at doing that, IMO. Which is why we're all Bulldog fans tonight.

[MikeyJoe]

South Carolina over Clemson 11:00 CST

Not sure this one matters at all. Only way Clemson is getting in is by winning the ACC championship game next week against GT. And they've got a very good shot at doing that, IMO. Which is why we're all Bulldog fans tonight.
Yeah, like I said, not as important. It wouldn't matter as much, but that updated post is just us rooting against every team ranked in the teens right now.

[Lime]

Nice work, mikeyjoe, although the more I look at this, the more I become convinced that Iowa's BCS chances rest largely with the Fiesta selection committee.

[MikeyJoe]

South Carolina over Clemson 11:00 CSTNot sure this one matters at all. Only way Clemson is getting in is by winning the ACC championship game next week against GT. And they've got a very good shot at doing that, IMO. Which is why we're all Bulldog fans tonight.
Yeah, like I said, not as important. It wouldn't matter as much, but that updated post is just us rooting against every team ranked in the teens right now.
Also, I'll add that Georgia Tech plays Clemson and not South Carolina, so in the event of a Georgia Tech loss in the ACC title game, a Clemson loss today hurts Georgia Tech's SOS and reduces their chances of an at large bid. I'll agree that a 2 loss ACC team isn't likely to get an at large anyway, but it can't hurt.

[Hawk_Kegmasters]

Good to see OSU go down. 1 less team to compete for a BCS game. Unless things get crazy conf. championship week, it'll most likely come down to whether a BCS Bowl picks PSU or Iowa first.

[MikeyJoe]

Good to see OSU go down. 1 less team to compete for a BCS game. Unless things get crazy conf. championship week, it'll most likely come down to whether a BCS Bowl picks PSU or Iowa first.
With Pitt and OSU going down this weekend, there will be two Big 10 teams in the BCS even if TCU and Boise both get chosen. It's basically all Iowa vs PSU now.

[Judge Kemp]

Good to see OSU go down. 1 less team to compete for a BCS game. Unless things get crazy conf. championship week, it'll most likely come down to whether a BCS Bowl picks PSU or Iowa first.
With Pitt and OSU going down this weekend, there will be two Big 10 teams in the BCS even if TCU and Boise both get chosen. It's basically all Iowa vs PSU now.

Any chance the Big East gets two in if Pitt beats Cincy? I theink there could be.

[Gushawk]

Unlikely, judge. $.

[RiotFan]

Fiesta takes Iowa with their first selection, then gets Boise with their second (last) pick.

[Judge Kemp]

Unlikely, judge. $.

I think I agree.

If Pitt and Cincy were both Top 10 going into next week and Pitt beat Cincy, I think the Big East would have had a better case and would have been tough to overlook. Now--I think it is much easier to justify, with Pitt losing this week.

With $ talking for the BCS, it may not have mattered even with a Pitt win this week, but I think it would have ben closer.

[HawkLax6]

Georgia Tech losing today helped out a little in case they lose to Clemson next week. That would be their third loss.

[MikeyJoe]

Georgia Tech losing today helped out a little in case they lose to Clemson next week. That would be their third loss.

All things considered it was a great day for Iowa's BCS hopes. The Big 10 is getting two teams almost for sure now.

[Iza]

Georgia Tech losing today helped out a little in case they lose to Clemson next week. That would be their third loss.

All things considered it was a great day for Iowa's BCS hopes. The Big 10 is getting two teams almost for sure now.

Agreed. The stars lined up pretty well. Obviously we need to root for Texas in the Big12 championship game. I believe that's about the only derailer, though maybe then Iowa would be chose over BSU?

[Mo T]

With Iowa at 9 or so in BCS and Boise St at 6, I think it's possible Iowa is chosen over them even if Nebraska was to pull an upset.

However, it all comes down to PSU vs. Iowa. We all know who should be chosen.......