So if OKst beats OU, will they get the BCS nod? [Archive]

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Iza

11-24-2009, 08:49 AM

They said this matter-of-factly yesterday. Do you agree?

valp0guy

11-24-2009, 09:05 AM

If Iowa ends up in the Outback Bowl, someone's going to need to be in protective custody.

newsbreaker

11-24-2009, 09:12 AM

If Iowa ends up in the Outback Bowl, someone's going to need to be in protective custody.

I don't see any way that happens.

If Okie goes to the Fiesta Bowl, then either Iowa or Penn State ends up in Miami. That either puts the Hawks in the Orange Bowl or the Cap One.

The only way Iowa gets bumped down that far is in this extraordinarily unlikely scenario:

*Nebraska beats Texas in the Big XII Title game

*Pitt beats Cincy and Cincy gets an at-large bid.

*Georgia Tech loses the ACC Title game and gets an at-large bid.

And then,

*Penn State jumps Iowa for the Cap One bowl.

IMHO, it might take all three of the above, but possibly only 2 of the 3.

I'm really wavering on the Okie State situation. I have been of the impression that if they beat Oklahoma, they're a lock for the Fiesta Bowl and we have to hope the Orange Bowl wants us.

What I'm not clear on is how important it is for the Fiesta Bowl to make the Big XII happy - can the league dump the Fiesta and elevate the Cotton Bowl to the BCS without major contractual reorganization inside the bowls?

All Okie has going for them is their Big XII status. Iowa is the better draw in every other way - especially attendance. IMHO, if Okie State beats Oklahoma, Iowa to the Fiesta becomes a 60/40 proposition against.

nolookpass

11-24-2009, 09:46 AM

I thought the Orange was a BCS bowl. If PSU gets the Fiesta then we wouldnt be allowed to play in the Orange because the Big 10 would have two BCS bowls already.

MikeyJoe

11-24-2009, 09:50 AM

They said this matter-of-factly yesterday. Do you agree?
Yes, I think I do. But Iowa and Okie State can both make it as at large selections.

http://www.hawkeyelounge.com/showthread.php?t=55565

opiate of the masses

11-24-2009, 09:57 AM

anybody know what the current line is on the OSU/OU game?

i can't go to betting sites at work

valp0guy

11-24-2009, 09:59 AM

OU is a 10 (!?!?!?!?!) point favorite.

opiate of the masses

11-24-2009, 10:10 AM

MikeyJoe

11-24-2009, 10:13 AM

Iowa can still make the BCS even if Okie State is an at large selection, but Hawkeye fans should root hard for OU.

sergeanthulka

11-24-2009, 10:14 AM

They said this matter-of-factly yesterday. Do you agree?
Yes, I think I do. But Iowa and Okie State can both make it as at large selections.

http://www.hawkeyelounge.com/showthread.php?t=55565

This.

If OSU beats OU. Iowa still gets taken with the Fiesta's first pick, then they can decide whether they want BSU or OSU with their second pick (as both will be available).

If OU beats OSU, then our only competition for the Fiesta bid becomes PSU, imo.

opiate of the masses

11-24-2009, 10:16 AM

Gushawk

11-24-2009, 11:15 AM

Iowa can still make the BCS even if Okie State is an at large selection, but Hawkeye fans should root hard for OU.

i'm not sure it matters that much, does it?

i haven't followed all the scenarios that closely, but i have it all boiled down to a very simplistic analysis: there will likely be two (and only two) Big 10 teams that get a BCS bowl. OSU is one, and the second one will go to either PSU or Iowa.

my guess right now is that PSU gets the second BCS slot for the B10 (for various reasons, including the paterno effect and the fact that they finished stronger than we did)

I agree that OSU (whether in or out) poses much less a risk to Iowa's chances than PSU, but you're "finished stronger than we did" justification pisses me off. It may be perceived that PSU "finished stronger than we did" (based on each team's last game), but it requires one to overlook entirely the recent home demolition they suffered at the hands of Ohio State in a game in which they simply weren't competitive. Iowa's weak "finish" is blemished by no such loss. PSU's arguments that it "deserves" to go to the BCS over Iowa is fakeunz, boyz.

opiate of the masses

11-24-2009, 11:23 AM

I agree that OSU (whether in or out) poses much less a risk to Iowa's chances than PSU, but you're "finished stronger than we did" justification pisses me off. It may be perceived that PSU "finished stronger than we did" (based on each team's last game), but it requires one to overlook entirely the recent home demolition they suffered at the hands of Ohio State in a game in which they simply weren't competitive. Iowa's weak "finish" is blemished by no such loss. PSU's arguments that it "deserves" to go to the BCS over Iowa is fakeunz, boyz.

i completely agree. imo, it will be a total screw-job if psu gets the B10's 2nd BCS slot (most likely in the Fiesta). we have the same record and we beat them this year in THEIR stadium! plus they got clobbered by OSU in THEIR stadium, and we took OSU into OT in the Shoe. i mean, it doesn't make sense.

but i still think it's gonna happen. i think psu will go to the BCS and we will go to the Capital One.

i hope i'm wrong

Lime

11-24-2009, 12:46 PM

I agree that OSU (whether in or out) poses much less a risk to Iowa's chances than PSU, but you're "finished stronger than we did" justification pisses me off. It may be perceived that PSU "finished stronger than we did" (based on each team's last game), but it requires one to overlook entirely the recent home demolition they suffered at the hands of Ohio State in a game in which they simply weren't competitive. Iowa's weak "finish" is blemished by no such loss. PSU's arguments that it "deserves" to go to the BCS over Iowa is fakeunz, boyz.

i completely agree. imo, it will be a total screw-job if psu gets the B10's 2nd BCS slot (most likely in the Fiesta). we have the same record and we beat them this year in THEIR stadium! plus they got clobbered by OSU in THEIR stadium, and we took OSU into OT in the Shoe. i mean, it doesn't make sense.

Northwestern was 9-3 to Iowa's 8-4 with a head-to-head win at Kinnick last year. Iowa made the Outback ahead of them.

Not entirely the same situation, but just saying...

opiate of the masses

11-24-2009, 12:54 PM

assuming that okie state loses, these projections pretty much sum it up:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

both iowa and psu will either go to the fiesta to play boise state or to the cap one to play ole miss. one guy has iowa in the fiesta and psu in the cap one, the other guy has it the other way around

i would much rather go to the fiesta to play boise. but the fiesta bowl gets first pick, and i think they go w/ psu. both schools travel very well, but a psu/boise state matchup would be much better for television ratings. plus you got the joepa effect. and the argument (which i disagree with, but it will be made) that psu finished stronger than we did

again, i hope i'm wrong

11-24-2009, 01:00 PM

but a psu/boise state matchup would be much better for television ratings

I'm not convinced that this would be true.

The Fiesta Bowl would be the only game on that day. College football fans would tune in regardless if it was Iowa/Boise St or Penn St/Boise St. People want to see how Boise St will play against a top team at the end of the season to see if Boise St is legit and if the Boise States of the college football world have an argument about national championship consideration in the future.

The Incredible Hawk

11-24-2009, 01:09 PM

OU is a 10 (!?!?!?!?!) point favorite.

wow that's pretty hefty. i assume the game is in norman.

i'm thinking if the game pans out as expected, it won't be an issue. with a 10 pt line, that would be a fairly big (granted, not huge, but big) upset

OSU is not sure if Robinson is going to play yet and they are very mediocre without him. Stoops has lost 2 home games in Norman ever. They don't lose at home and OSU always plays like crap there. I would love to see OSU win @ OU, but I do not want to see it screw the Hawks.

opiate of the masses

11-24-2009, 01:12 PM

anybody know what the line is on the nevada at boise state game this friday?

nevada started the season sucky, but iirc they have won 7 or 8 games in a row, many by huge margins.

still, i get back to my original point: even in the very best case scenario where both boise state and okie state lose this weekend, i can't see the BCS taking more than 2 B10 teams. i still think that either psu OR iowa gets a BCS slot, but not both

11-24-2009, 01:13 PM

i can't see the BCS taking more than 2 B10 teams. i still think that either psu OR iowa gets a BCS slot, but not both

That's because the BCS prohibits 3 teams from the same conference in BCS Bowls.

opiate of the masses

11-24-2009, 01:23 PM

i can't see the BCS taking more than 2 B10 teams. i still think that either psu OR iowa gets a BCS slot, but not both

That's because the BCS prohibits 3 teams from the same conference in BCS Bowls.

thx for the clarification

opiate of the masses

11-24-2009, 01:41 PM

i just read a great post on this very subject from the other lounge, for those of you who have hr subs. this all makes total sense. the bottom line is this: cheer real hard for our friend bobby stoops this week, because that's the key:

http://iowa.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=852&tid=128481554&mid=128481554&sid=940&style=2

Lime

11-24-2009, 01:46 PM

both schools travel very well, but a psu/boise state matchup would be much better for television ratings. plus you got the joepa effect.

I'm not sure that the TV ratings will really be that big of a factor. The BCS has already signed a deal with ESPN for 2010-2013. Unless there is a clear long-term trend across the BCS games of ratings declining for the key demographics, pulling a poor rating for one particular game isn't going to hurt the long-term value of the BCS TV package.

Unless there is some sort of clause in the contracts (ie. TV's payment to the BCS decreases if TV ratings fail to meet a certain threshold), I doubt that the bowls place TV as a primary concern. ESPN picking a B10 game of the week week-in-and-out? Yes. Bowl game? No. Their primary interest is their own ticket sales.

danish_hawkeye

11-24-2009, 01:52 PM

The Fiesta bowl could sell 30,000 tickets to Iowa fans and not even sell one in the state of Iowa. They would be foolish to not pick the Hawks if they are going to make this solely an economical decison. They have to have $$ floating in front of them if they have any memory of how we traveled out there for the disaster in the desert a few years ago..