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oomp
05-10-2010, 09:49 AM
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/6996754.html

Domino effect
Rumors of conference realignment abound, and schools await the first move that would trigger a changed landscape across college sports

By BRENT ZWERNEMAN
College Station Bureau

May 9, 2010, 1:25AM


Judging from the apocalyptic chatter in the time to kill between spring football and real football, one might surmise the Big 12 is heaving its final breaths, with the mighty Big Ten primed to pillage the 14-year-old conference.

Au contraire, argue the Big 12 power brokers — who urge fortitude in fighting through the rumors, hearsay and off-record whispers of a most mesmerizing offseason.

“It's a great conference, it's been good to us and I hope it continues to be that,” Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds said. “What will happen with the conference — I don't know the answer to that right now, and I don't know that anybody else does. We have to wait and see how this plays out.”

What Dodds and others are waitingon, in an exercise of budding exasperation, is whether one or several of the league's schools splits for bigger paydays in other conferences. Reports have linked Missouri, for instance, with potential Big Ten expansion, and claim the Tigers would leap at an invite.

“It would be such a shame if any institution thought it had a better place to go,” Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe said.

Baylor athletic director Ian McCaw isn't buying the idea Missouri or Nebraska, for instance, will bolt for the Big Ten, despite the potential for earning roughly $10 million more annually in revenue, thanks to a sweeter conference television contract.

“The Big 12 has a very bright and stable future,” McCaw said. “We're on solid ground. I'll be surprised if the Big Ten (which has 11 members) expands beyond 12 schools. Fourteen and 16 teams are unwieldy from a scheduling standpoint.”

Size matters
Plus, McCaw added, the Big Ten likely doesn't want to spread its considerable annual payout — reportedly $22 million per school — over too many programs. The Big 12 reportedly pays from $7 million to $12 million per school.

“There are a lot of reasons why they won't go past 12,” McCaw said of the Big Ten, in downplaying the idea of a super conference of 16 or more teams. “And I think the Big Ten will take either Notre Dame or Connecticut (to make 12).”

Count Texas A&M athletic director Bill Byrne, too, as a Big 12 believer — and one who couldn't resist a dig at any wishful thinking.

“As long as we're wishing, I wish all of our schools were located in Hawaii,” he said, chuckling.

More seriously, Byrne said of hypothesizing about the Big 12's future: “There are all types of combinations that people can get into. My preference is to keep the Big 12 intact. We have a really good conference, and I like it. If (the dominoes) start falling we'll take care of Texas A&M, but it's pointless to speculate on that right now, when there's been no movement.

“I can't say it often enough — we want to stay right where we are. And the ‘Bigger 10' would love to have Notre Dame.”

The three area Big 12 athletic directors interviewed — Byrne, Dodds and McCaw — said the league needs a better television contract, more along the lines of the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference TV deals that net member schools millions more per year than the Big 12 dishes out. The Big 12's salvation on that front — and perhaps overall — might come in a proposed alliance with the Pacific-10 Conference.

Athletic directors from both leagues met last week in Phoenix to discuss the idea of joining forces for a new television contract, meaning they would net roughly a third of the nation's TV market.

“It's also 22 of the most prominent institutions west of the Mississippi River,” Beebe said.

The conferences, buoyed by the success of their recent basketball “Hardwood” series, would agree to play more games across the board in all sports. And the TV deal, which they would dive in together while remaining separate leagues, would offer the primary hook of the powerful alliance.

“We need to have all of our football games exposed in some platform,” Beebe said. “The old way of thinking that you have to keep some games off (the air) because they hurt the games that are on is no longer valid. With a joint network with the Pac-10 or with a traditional network, we're going to be demanding of having tremendous exposure and demanding of revenues that are more in line with the Big Ten and SEC.”

TV contracts vital
The Big 12 and Pac-10's deals with Fox Sports end in 2012, and negotiations for new contracts start in about a year. The conferences collide in the Holiday Bowl, and starting this year will do so in the Alamo Bowl.

“It's all conversation right now,” Dodds said of a projected Pac-10/Big 12 TV union. “There's nothing set in stone.”

Neither is the idea that whatever happens, UT and A&M are in this together. Would the state's two flagship schools, separated by 90 country miles, join different conferences? They grew up together in the old Southwest Conference and then joined the Big 12 in 1996, when the geographically confined SWC dissolved.

“It's always been that way,” Dodds said of UT and A&M competing in the same conference, “and I would assume in the future it will always be that way.”

“We need to play each other every year,” Byrne said. “Other than that, both schools need to do what's best for them.”

Finally, there's the common sense factor of why this state's Big 12 schools, including Texas Tech in West Texas, wouldn't be the ones to bolt for the Pac-10, Big Ten or even SEC, should there be a slight league shake-up (say, losing one of the schools on the outer boundaries):

Proximity important
Geography. Especially if the Pac-10/Big 12 alliance and a better TV deal pan out.

“One of the things that's been unfortunate in this talk about realignment is the discussions center on money, with little or no discussion of the student-athletes' experience and welfare,” McCaw said. “Some of the scenarios presented have student-athletes traveling 1,500 or 2,000 miles during the week. That's an unrealistic burden. At the end of the day, a regional conference makes the most sense.

“We've got a fairly tight geographical boundary for the Big 12. That's one of the reasons why our conference is so strong.”

Following Arkansas' departure from the SWC in 1991, that antiquated league was restricted to the state of Texas, and with a then-lagging UT, lost much of its national identification. The Big 12 covers Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado and Iowa — or, as Byrne sees it, what's just about right, labeling consistent travel to far-reaching destinations (despite his Hawaii daydreaming) as a “disadvantage for student-athletes.”

Dodds agreed.
“Our first concern is the student-athletes' welfare, and the amount of travel is part of that,” he said. “That is not something we would address only in passing.”

Still, is there some fire with all of the smoke swirling about league realignment?

Fourteen years ago this week, a softball sailed into the Oklahoma City sky —and into history as the luminous new league found its footing with its first tournament. Fourteen years later, despite the Big 12's successes and multiple national titles in the major sports, is the league, like that first fly ball in 1996, up in the air?

Keep fans in mind
Beebe, who has a rooting interest in the Big 12's survival, contends no way. But his reasoning makes sense as to why fans can expect the league to stick around for years to come, through all of the babble between football seasons.

“It all starts with the welfare of student-athletes,” Beebe said. “It doesn't serve them to get too far outside of a geographic region. We're not talking about multimillionaire professional athletes who only have their jobs to worry about.

“The next thing is fans. Their ability to travel to games would be severely tested if suddenly their teams were routinely playing games 2,000 miles away. People also want familiarity with the opposing school.

“We're going to really harm ourselves in college athletics if we start getting outside that realm.”

bzwerneman@express-news.net


CHANGE IN OUR TIME
Since the Big Ten said it wanted to add a team or teams to its powerhouse conference, speculation over who's going where and who will be left looking for a home has run rampant. Will the Big Ten — there are actually 11 schools — grow by one or get crazy and add five? What will be the Southeastern Conference's response, if any? Is the Pac-10 serious about adding two schools so it can add a money-making conference championship football game? How does all of this affect the Big 12? We take a look at some of the scenarios, from least to most outlandish:

Simple

•Big Ten: Adds one — all of this

talk about adding five and creating super conferences is just a ploy to make Notre Dame cave in and join.

If the Irish don't, Connecticut jumps at the chance. Other conferences are jealous of a league that pays $25 million to each school in TV revenue to the likes of Indiana and Illinois.

•Pac-10: Stays the same.

Small change

•Big Ten: Adds Notre Dame or Connecticut.

•Pac-10: Adds Colorado and one of BYU, Utah or Boise State.

•Big 12: Replaces Colorado with TCU, which fits OK with Frogs coach Gary Patterson. He recently joked that he would gladly join the Big 12, as long as he gets to play in the North Division.

Big change

•Big Ten: Penn State coach Joe Paterno has said he favors 14 teams, so the Big Ten listens to JoePa (don't we all?) and adds Missouri, Rutgers and Notre Dame or Connecticut.

•Big East: Asks Villanova to move out of the FCS to stay an eight-team league.

•Pac-10: Adds Colorado and Utah or Boise State.

•Big 12: Adds TCU and BYU.

Radical change

•Super Conference I: Big Ten grows to

16 teams with Missouri, Nebraska, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Notre Dame or Connecticut.

•Super Conference II: SEC doesn't want

to get left behind, so it grows to 16 by raiding the Atlantic Coast Conference for Florida State, Miami, Clemson and Georgia Tech.

•Survivors Conference: The Big East/Atlantic leftovers try to stay in the BCS with Boston College, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, South Florida, West Virginia, Connecticut and Louisville.

•Pac-10: Adds Colorado and Utah or Boise State.

•Big 12: Adds TCU, BYU and Houston. If that happens, do Texas and Oklahoma stick around and can that conference negotiate a TV contract in 2012 that comes anywhere close to the ones that pay Big Ten schools $22 million or SEC schools $17 million?

— DOUGLAS PILS

newsbreaker
05-10-2010, 09:58 AM
While that guy has some good points, for the most part he has his head in the sand.

MikeyJoe
05-10-2010, 10:04 AM
While that guy has some good points, for the most part he has his head in the sand.
I think that's the general mentality of Big 12 schools at the moment.

xr4ticlone
05-10-2010, 10:05 AM
I think this B12 / P10 tv deal will shore up a lot of support from the members myself. The real bitch has always been about TV coverage and money.

This would solve most of that and allow the 2 conferences to control the Western US for TV's.

Someone on quoted Jamie Pollard from a conversation and he seemed calm about all this a month ago but said that the evolution of the BCS will be 3 super conferences at some point down the road.

B12/ P10
B11/BE
SEC/ ACC

Sounds like the B12 /P10 TV deal and other talks have been in play for some time now going by that comment.

MikeyJoe
05-10-2010, 10:07 AM
I think this B12 / P10 tv deal will shore up a lot of support from the members myself. The real bitch has always been about TV coverage and money.
I also think this is slightly self-deluding. The networks are going to want to make sure they know who's in the Pac 10 and Big 12 for the foreseeable future before they start handing out big contract dollars.

newsbreaker
05-10-2010, 10:10 AM
I don't think a "joint" TV deal with the Big XII/Pac-10 is the fix they seem to think it is.

First, there are only so many slots for games on ESPN, and not only is the Big Ten going to strike first, but even in a combined Big XII/Pac-10, the BT commands greater TV audiences and covers more TV homes.

A joint deal might improve what they are able to provide their schools, but it still will fall short of actually competing with the deals the BT/SEC have and are likely to get in the future.

It appears that the Big XII doesn't understand it's place in the world. The SEC is more likely to attack expansion to the west, not east, and the ACC is stronger and more likely to stay together than the Big XII. Beyond that, the article ignores the pig in the Big XII parlor: their TV deal is bad, but the way they share it is worse. There wasn't a single mention in that article of the southern schools sharing the wealth, and that will prove to be their downfall from a league perspective.

Gushawk
05-10-2010, 10:10 AM
Similar read on CFN today. Basically says the Big 12 will survive, but will clearly be second tier:

Big 12 – Baylor, BYU, Colorado State, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, SMU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, Utah.

Also suggests the SEC will be adding some lower tier teams.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/968955.html

01BizGrad
05-10-2010, 10:16 AM
There was a huge article in ths Sunday Sports section down here about Mizzou to the Big Ten.

They really want it.

Would Missouri be a fit in Big Ten?
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/mizzou/story/155C33BD4A6244698625771D00080866?OpenDocument

Also another buy the opinion guy.
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/bryanburwell/story/96D6D1A0B6A03CB38625771E000DA051?OpenDocument




http://images.stltoday.com/stltoday/resources/bigten625may09.jpg

MikeyJoe
05-10-2010, 10:19 AM
I don't think a "joint" TV deal with the Big XII/Pac-10 is the fix they seem to think it is.

First, there are only so many slots for games on ESPN, and not only is the Big Ten going to strike first, but even in a combined Big XII/Pac-10, the BT commands greater TV audiences and covers more TV homes.
That's also a great point. I've seen Big 12 fans present some variant of this, or the even simpler "Well our contract is up in 2012 so we'll just get a better one."

Where? CBS has the SEC. ABC/ESPN is primarily Big 10, with a sprinkling of the top tier Big 12 games. But ABC/ESPN is always going to be limited in the dollars they offer to the Big 12 by simple availability. They're not going to start bumping Big 10 games they've already committed to a billion dollars over 10 years for.

About the only hope for the Big 12/Pac 10 "super contract" that I see is Notre Dame to the Big 10. If that happens, NBC could be looking to fill a void. Although again, you're talking about replacing one game per week with a potential lineup of 22-24 teams, so it would take a significant expansion on NBC's part to put out anything meaningful financially. And then again there's no telling how this is all going to be affected by NBC/Comcast's desire to grow the Versus network. It could be that any contract would be limited by the fact that less games would be shown on the broadcast network - but on the other hand, they might be willing to make a significant investment to grow Versus.

ISUFan98
05-10-2010, 10:41 AM
While that guy has some good points, for the most part he has his head in the sand.
I think that's the general mentality of Big 12 schools at the moment.

I would agree.

Unless ND were to come to their senses and realize that being in the Big Ten is in their best long-term interests, the Big 12 is going to be bled to death.

funnelcake
05-10-2010, 10:51 AM
Similar read on CFN today. Basically says the Big 12 will survive, but will clearly be second tier:

Big 12 – Baylor, BYU, Colorado State, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, SMU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, Utah.

Also suggests the SEC will be adding some lower tier teams.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/968955.html

Texas is not going to stay in that conf- they would bolt to the SEC

Pseudonym
05-10-2010, 10:54 AM
"Don't come to my house and eat dinner, and then go outside and tell people what a terrible cook I am," then-Iowa State football coach Jim Walden said. "We ought to give them some options. … Thirty days — either shut up or get out."

Couldn't say it better myself today. If Missouri wants to bolt to a mediocre athletic conference for some more $$, by all means, GTFO.

newsbreaker
05-10-2010, 10:58 AM
"Don't come to my house and eat dinner, and then go outside and tell people what a terrible cook I am," then-Iowa State football coach Jim Walden said. "We ought to give them some options. … Thirty days — either shut up or get out."Couldn't say it better myself today. If Missouri wants to bolt to a mediocre athletic conference for some more $$, by all means, GTFO.

:rotf:

lilzaphod
05-10-2010, 10:59 AM
Deck chairs. Titanic.

Pseudonym
05-10-2010, 11:04 AM
"Don't come to my house and eat dinner, and then go outside and tell people what a terrible cook I am," then-Iowa State football coach Jim Walden said. "We ought to give them some options. … Thirty days — either shut up or get out."Couldn't say it better myself today. If Missouri wants to bolt to a mediocre athletic conference for some more $$, by all means, GTFO.

:rotf:

Just think, now when they absolutely destroy overrated Illinois teams in football and basketball every year, it'll count towards conference victories! That is a win-win!

funnelcake
05-10-2010, 11:07 AM
Couldn't say it better myself today. If Missouri wants to bolt to a mediocre athletic conference for some more $$, by all means, GTFO.

:rotf:

Just think, now when they absolutely destroy overrated Illinois teams in football and basketball every year, it'll count towards conference victories! That is a win-win!

Yeah, Illinois-LOL.......Newsy.pwned

JD720
05-10-2010, 12:50 PM
Similar read on CFN today. Basically says the Big 12 will survive, but will clearly be second tier:

Big 12 – Baylor, BYU, Colorado State, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, SMU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, Utah.

Also suggests the SEC will be adding some lower tier teams.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/968955.html

I don't get why the Big 12 would add mid major teams in markets they already serve. All that does it split up existing resources by 16 teams instead of 12.

I don't really see the Big 12 going beyond 12. I don't think any of the schools that would actually move to the Big 12 will add anything of value. Some of these schools (ie Utah, BYU) might make sense if the Big 12 loses a few teams and wants to get back to 12 for the sake of a conference championship game, but I don't think it works for them to go to 14 or 16.

jabberja
12-23-2010, 09:07 AM
Ian McCaw was wrong.

Pseudonym
12-24-2010, 12:11 AM
:rotf:

Just think, now when they absolutely destroy overrated Illinois teams in football and basketball every year, it'll count towards conference victories! That is a win-win!

Yeah, Illinois-LOL.......Newsy.pwned

Illinois still sucks.