2013 Iowa Football Wins

[Jimmie Dimmick]

I'm down from my 7 prediction. I think 6 will be something to shoot for and they probably end up with 5.

NIU fought last night but were just overmatched on offense. That FSU defense is unreal.

I don't think Iowa can beat NIU.

[douglasbader]

Originally Posted by Jimmie Dimmick

I'm down from my 7 prediction. I think 6 will be something to shoot for and they probably end up with 5.

NIU fought last night but were just overmatched on offense. That FSU defense is unreal.

I don't think Iowa can beat NIU.

NIU returns Lynch, the entire Offensive Line, fullback, and running back. They also has a lot of Defensive guys back. They will be seeking revenge and we won't have a QB with one fucking snap of experience.

If Iowa had played tough in Kinnick, I might have some hope, but they were fucking horrible this year at home going 2-5.

[Mo T]

There is nothing in the off-season that has made me excited for next year. Any of the news has made me more pessimistic.

Another 4 win season.

[Revolver Ocelot]

3 wins.

[Vepr]

(L) Northern Illinois
(W) Missouri State
(L) Iowa State
(W) Western Michigan
(W) Minnesota
(L) Michigan State

Bye (Lucky for us Bye cannot field a team)

(L) Ohio State
(L) Northwestern
(L) Wisconsin
(W) Purdue

(L) Bye (We will lose our 5th string starting running back to small pox)

(L) Michigan
(L) Nebraska

[Natty Bumppo]

Originally Posted by Vepr

(L) Northern Illinois
(W) Missouri State
(L) Iowa State
(W) Western Michigan
(W) Minnesota
(L) Michigan State

Bye (Lucky for us Bye cannot field a team)

(L) Ohio State
(L) Northwestern
(L) Wisconsin
(W) Purdue

(L) Bye (We will lose our 5th string starting running back to small pox)

(L) Michigan
(L) Nebraska

That's depressing especially since there is no guarantee for wins against WMU, Minnesota, or Purdue.

[douglasbader]

We are in the phase with Iowa Football like the Basketball program was in for the last 6-7 years. They had to truly worry about beating teams like South Dakota, Campbell and pretty much everyone on the schedule. Now they blow those teams out by 40 and they turn into a dunk fest.

The stupid Football team has to worry very much about beating teams like Missouri State and Central Michigan when those used to be guaranteed 30 point blow out where the back up QB got at least a quarter of snaps.

[sobrien51]

Originally Posted by Vepr

(L) Northern Illinois
(W) Missouri State
(L) Iowa State
(W) Western Michigan
(W) Minnesota
(L) Michigan State

Bye (Lucky for us Bye cannot field a team)

(L) Ohio State
(L) Northwestern
(L) Wisconsin
(W) Purdue

(L) Bye (We will lose our 5th string starting running back to small pox)

(L) Michigan
(L) Nebraska

Agree on Missouri State and all of the L's still undecided on Western Michigan, Minny and Purdue.

[Gushawk]

My wife is urging me to not give up my season tickets (even if I don't go to a single game), but I expect a season completely devoid of any real excitement or even anticipation. To me, it feels about like Lick's second year, when you wanted to believe he could do it, but all the signs (and particularly his ability to appeal and relate to talent) suggested that he most likely could not.

[douglasbader]

The other thing that sucks is you are likely to have 4-5 new coaches that Iowa has never seen before and Ferentz doesn't do well against new coaches. Got smoked in recent years by Kill, O'Brien, Wilson and struggled against others.

Northern Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue will all have modern, aggressive minded schemes while they will know the exact conservative bullshit Iowa is going to run on both sides of the ball.

There is a reason that Kirk performed his best in the Big 10 against guys like Paterno, Dantonio, Bielema and others that ran similar schemes while he struggles against Fitzgerald and others who spread him out and run crossing routes all over the field.

[Whatever]

Le Veon Bell just declared for the draft. Sounds like Dion Sims will be declaring early also. I would think Gholston might be another guy who will come out early. The fact that people on this board think that both Northern Illinois and Michigan St are going to be losses next year, even though Iowa beat them on the road last year and both teams will lose a bunch of guys, shows that Iowa fans have gotten way too negative.

[Gushawk]

Calling NIU a road win seems a little turd polishy. Plus we played just as bad or worse at home last year.

I do think MSU will again be right there in the running to be the worst team in the division, but physically they aren't going to be less talented than Iowa even if they do lose all of those guys.

[Whatever]

Originally Posted by Gushawk

Calling NIU a road win seems a little turd polishy. Plus we played just as bad or worse at home last year.

I do think MSU will again be right there in the running to be the worst team in the division, but physically they aren't going to be less talented than Iowa even if they do lose all of those guys.

It was a neutral field, I should not have called it a road game. Playing them at Kinnick versus at Soldier Field is an upgrade. They also lose a bunch of guys and really didn't have a quality win last year. They beat Army, Kansas and a bunch of MAC teams.

[Gushawk]

...but they'll be facing a QB taking his first college snaps who wasn't good enough to beat out James Vandenburg...even if Iowa is surprisingly better than expected, they aren't a prohibitive favorite to win that game, IMO

[Whatever]

Originally Posted by Gushawk

...but they'll be facing a QB taking his first college snaps who wasn't good enough to beat out James Vandenburg...even if Iowa is surprisingly better than expected, they aren't a prohibitive favorite to win that game, IMO

I'm not saying they are a prohibitive favorite. Several posters in this thread have this as an automatic loss. I would guess Iowa will be a slight favorite.

[Gushawk]

It's a winnable, coin flip game. As are several others. This is not a team capable of winning a significant majority of those.

[Whatever]

Depends on the QB and the defensive line. If the young guys significantly upgrade those positions I think they can win their share.

[Gushawk]

I suppose Beathard could be a prodigy, but I'm not holding my breath. And there's still the matter of the DE depth chart, which Stinky will again be posting pictures of to visually illustrate the program's current challenges.

[Whatever]

Originally Posted by Gushawk

I suppose Beathard could be a prodigy, but I'm not holding my breath. And there's still the matter of the DE depth chart, which Stinky will again be posting pictures of to visually illustrate the program's current challenges.

They don't need a prodigy to upgrade the QB position. Someone who can competently throw a screen pass would be an upgrade.

[OlePeep]

I'm usually an emotional "never pick against the Hawks" guy, but I voted 3 wins. I am of the school that believes the QB is the most important position in sports, and unless Beathard is at least Johhny Football-lite, we are in deep shit. I didn't realize MSU lost so much, so maybe that is closer to a win than I thought. But there's just not a lot of hope there. My original take was wins v. MO State, W.MI, Purdue.

The team was just trending so poorly the last half of the season...don't see any reasonable basis for hope.

[Gushawk]

Here are my buckets -

Almost certain losses - I see zero wins:

@ Ohio State
Michigan
@ Nebraska

Likely losses, but some chance of winning - I see one win among these:

@ Iowa State
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Coin flip games - I see two wins here:

Northern Illinois
@ Minnesota (might actually belong in category above)
Michigan State
@ Purdue

Likely wins - 2 for 2:

Missouri State
Western Michigan

I guess that puts us at 5-7, though I think the potential downside to that is probably stronger than the upside.

[Lime]

Iowa State is a tossup. Rhoads is the master of putting together a 6-to-7-loss season that feels inspriational because they beat a ranked team at one point. As bad as Iowa was last year, ISU won that by 3 points. Their three wins over Iowa in the last decade have been by a total of 7 points.

[douglasbader]

I think the worst thing is that you go from this year where even the toughest games were reasonably winnable, to next year with what you have back and the progression and schedule changes you have likely 3 games you won't have a real shot in.

Ferentz could pull off a shocking season, but I don't see much if any chance going on the road and beating Ohio State or Nebraska. Michigan will be pretty damn good again and Iowa has been dogshit at home.

Those are 3 pretty sure losses. Now that puts you in the position of having to perform far above expectation for your other 9 games. Even worse still is that you have a coach who shits the bed in Ames and recently in Minneapolis and you have to go to both of those very early in the year.

Perhaps the best thing (and it is very cliche) is that Iowa will be backs against the wall and under fire from the very first game. There will be no fuck around or discovery time next season like you pseudo had this season.

Iowa will be an underdog from their first game playing a Heisman candidate and a team returning most of their key players. They go on the road in the 3rd game to Iowa State who has beaten them 2 years in a row and then on the road in the 5th game to Minnesota where they have lost 2 in a row. Oh, then they get to follow that up with Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwestern and Wisconsin.

Gonna be an ugly year.

[Gushawk]

Originally Posted by Lime

Iowa State is a tossup. Rhoads is the master of putting together a 6-to-7-loss season that feels inspriational because they beat a ranked team at one point. As bad as Iowa was last year, ISU won that by 3 points. Their three wins over Iowa in the last decade have been by a total of 7 points.

Other than last season's results, that game is hard to substantively distinguish from @ Minnesota. They are pretty much the same game, IMO. Winnable, but I don't really like our chances. Both have decent sophomore QBs with real experience to build on, and that probably gives them a slight edge.

[Whatever]

Originally Posted by Gushawk

Other than last season's results, that game is hard to substantively distinguish from @ Minnesota. They are pretty much the same game, IMO. Winnable, but I don't really like our chances. Both have decent sophomore QBs with real experience to build on, and that probably gives them a slight edge.

Phillip Nelson in Minnesota was fucking terrible and may not even be the starter next year.

[Gushawk]

He sort of reminds me of Jordan Lynch with no experience. I think he'll be okay, and probably better than what we trot out there.

[Whatever]

Travis Frederick, Wisconsin's center, declared for the draft. Wisconsin will lose their starting quarterback, Montee Ball and two offensive lineman who are projected to be picked in the 1st 4 rounds of the draft. Plus they will have an entirely new coaching staff. I would lean toward that game being more toward the tossup category with the game at Kinnick.

[BBK]

Originally Posted by Whatever

Travis Frederick, Wisconsin's center, declared for the draft. Wisconsin will lose their starting quarterback, Montee Ball and two offensive lineman who are projected to be picked in the 1st 4 rounds of the draft. Plus they will have an entirely new coaching staff. I would lean toward that game being more toward the tossup category with the game at Kinnick.

There will certainly be a drop off there. I just wonder if the drop off will be significant enough for them to lose to a shitty team like Iowa.

[LutherBlue89]

Originally Posted by Lime

Iowa State is a tossup. Rhoads is the master of putting together a 6-to-7-loss season that feels inspriational because they beat a ranked team at one point. As bad as Iowa was last year, ISU won that by 3 points. Their three wins over Iowa in the last decade have been by a total of 7 points.

Ole Limey ain't much for the maths.

[douglasbader]

Originally Posted by Whatever

Travis Frederick, Wisconsin's center, declared for the draft. Wisconsin will lose their starting quarterback, Montee Ball and two offensive lineman who are projected to be picked in the 1st 4 rounds of the draft. Plus they will have an entirely new coaching staff. I would lean toward that game being more toward the tossup category with the game at Kinnick.

Michigan State is looking like they will be decimated as well.

[Natty Bumppo]

Wins over decimated, sucky teams are the best.

It's quite sad we're reduced to this discussion. Iowa will be bad, but at least other teams might be worse!

[ChipHilton]

Originally Posted by Whatever

Travis Frederick, Wisconsin's center, declared for the draft. Wisconsin will lose their starting quarterback, Montee Ball and two offensive lineman who are projected to be picked in the 1st 4 rounds of the draft. Plus they will have an entirely new coaching staff. I would lean toward that game being more toward the tossup category with the game at Kinnick.

I'm under the impression that (starter) Joel Stave has 3 years left. O'Brien makes for a very experienced backup.

[StinkyMcFadden]

Originally Posted by Gushawk

I suppose Beathard could be a prodigy, but I'm not holding my breath. And there's still the matter of the DE depth chart, which Stinky will again be posting pictures of to visually illustrate the program's current challenges.

[StinkyMcFadden]

[StinkyMcFadden]

The other board said Faith is a T, but who knows.

[The Dad]

Originally Posted by StinkyMcFadden

Coming to an Edward Jones near you.

[AntiSocial]

The expected value of the number of wins for the first 106 predictions is 5.18 wins.

[Gushawk]

Sounds about right, and to corroborate my above analysis.

[Gushawk]

I hate you, Stinky.

[Whatever]

Originally Posted by ChipHilton

I'm under the impression that (starter) Joel Stave has 3 years left. O'Brien makes for a very experienced backup.

Curt Phillips (Senior) started their last 5 games including the Rose Bowl.

[StinkyMcFadden]

Originally Posted by Gushawk

I hate you, Stinky.

The DT position looks good, though.

[ChipHilton]

Originally Posted by Whatever

Curt Phillips (Senior) started their last 5 games including the Rose Bowl.

Because Stave broke his (non-throwing) collarbone against MSU. He was developing nicely.

Att Comp Pct Yds TD Int Rating
119 70 58.8 1,104 6 3 148.3

[Whatever]

Originally Posted by ChipHilton

Because Stave broke his (non-throwing) collarbone against MSU. He was developing nicely.

Att Comp Pct Yds TD Int Rating
119 70 58.8 1,104 6 3 148.3

He was healthy for the Rose Bowl and Phillips started. You are correct that he did start several games and played pretty well.

[ChipHilton]

That looks test works every time.

[The Dad]

Originally Posted by ChipHilton

That looks test works every time.

Does AC's mom still have eligibility left?

[Jack 10]

Originally Posted by ChipHilton

That looks test works every time.

Is that first pic, Bortz?

[Kerky]

Originally Posted by Jack 10

Is that first pic, Bortz?

Yes. He lost his hair later.

[Jimmie Dimmick]

Dude looks like the missing link.

[Gushawk]

espn not bullish:

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/...kings-for-2013

[BBK]

The lower division of the big ten is going to be so turrible next year.