#9 Iowa @ #4 Ohio State • 2/28/2021 • 3:00 • CBS

CurdMan

TurdMan
Joined
Aug 13, 2014
Messages
3,147
Reaction score
-2,343
Connor needs to play and hit a couple 3s. And we'll still lose. A healthy tOSU at home is just too much for us right now. 82-73
Ohio State is a much better matchup for Iowa than Michigan or even Illinois. Iowa has the better offense and believe it or not..the better defense according to kenpom.

And it’s a big one. Lose tomorrow and Iowa no longer controls its own destiny with regard to BTT double bye. Plus..a win tomorrow puts Iowa in excellent position for an NCAAT 2 seed.
 

BBK

THE GRINGOOOOO
Joined
Dec 8, 2009
Messages
64,292
Reaction score
-36,415
A win here would likely solidify us as a 2 seed.

With a loss we might be a 3 unless we get some help.

Thoughts? Perhaps a 2 if we lose here, beat Nebrantska and Wisconsin, and then avoid a "bad" loss in the BTT (meaning avoiding a loss to anyone other than Michigan, Ohio State, or Illannoy)?
 

douglasbader

Posts “Hawks by a million” on Facebook
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
103,814
Reaction score
-41,011
A win here would likely solidify us as a 2 seed.

With a loss we might be a 3 unless we get some help.

Thoughts? Perhaps a 2 if we lose here, beat Nebrantska and Wisconsin, and then avoid a "bad" loss in the BTT (meaning avoiding a loss to anyone other than Michigan, Ohio State, or Illannoy)?
Are you talking BTT or overall?

If you are talking NCAA, then so many possibilities left due to the remaining Big Ten schedule and the strength of the conference. It would be very unlikely, but there might be a scenario where Iowa can still even get a #1 seed. That would of course mean winning out and then winning the BTT. Unlikely, but would at least have a case if they had something like wins over Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan in their last 6 games.

#2 seed would likely take winning out and then winning at least a game in the BTT if not a couple or making it to the BTT Championship game to lock it.

#3 seed seems the most probable at this point with an outside possibility of a #4 seed if they shit the bed. I don't think they fall any further than that unless they lose out and then a nightmare scenario of a #5 seed.

Michigan is a near lock for a #1 seed. Illinois or Ohio State both have the remaining games to be a #1 seed.

I think the Big Ten ends up with a #1 seed, a couple #2 seeds and a #3 seed. Iowa just needs to make sure they don't drop any lower than a #3 seed. That at least avoids a potential game against Gonzaga/Baylor/Michigan in the Sweet 16.
 

BBK

THE GRINGOOOOO
Joined
Dec 8, 2009
Messages
64,292
Reaction score
-36,415
Talkin NCAA here.

I agree that a 3 is most likely. Just posing the question: any chance of a 2 if we lose to Ohio State, win out, then make it to the semifinal and lose to Michigan, Ohio State, or Illinois?

Guessing no. Meaning we will need a win against one of those 3 at a minimum to be in that conversation.
 

douglasbader

Posts “Hawks by a million” on Facebook
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
103,814
Reaction score
-41,011
Talkin NCAA here.

I agree that a 3 is most likely. Just posing the question: any chance of a 2 if we lose to Ohio State, win out, then make it to the semifinal and lose to Michigan, Ohio State, or Illinois?

Guessing no. Meaning we will need a win against one of those 3 at a minimum to be in that conversation.
I think that would be pushing it in that scenario.

Back to this game, it is massive for both Iowa and Ohio State.

The loser of this game will be staring at the #5 seed in the BTT. The winner will very likely end up the #2 (Ohio State) or #3 (Iowa) seed.

To get the #4 seed in the BTT, the loser of this game will need to win out and Wisconsin or Indiana will need to beat Purdue.
 

douglasbader

Posts “Hawks by a million” on Facebook
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
103,814
Reaction score
-41,011
Iowa winning this game likely (assuming they win out) gets them....

- #3 seed in the BTT
- First round bye
- Avoid Michigan until the final
- Clear path to #2 seed in NCAA Tournament
 

BBK

THE GRINGOOOOO
Joined
Dec 8, 2009
Messages
64,292
Reaction score
-36,415
I know kenpom rankings differ from this, but if you look at Palm and Lunardi's projections, it appears our primary criticism by the selection committee will be our lack of a signature win. Our best win at the moment is against a projected 5/6 seed.

We really need to beat one of the projected 1-2 seeds.
 
Joined
Oct 11, 2014
Messages
4,072
Reaction score
-895
Are you talking BTT or overall?

If you are talking NCAA, then so many possibilities left due to the remaining Big Ten schedule and the strength of the conference. It would be very unlikely, but there might be a scenario where Iowa can still even get a #1 seed. That would of course mean winning out and then winning the BTT. Unlikely, but would at least have a case if they had something like wins over Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan in their last 6 games.

#2 seed would likely take winning out and then winning at least a game in the BTT if not a couple or making it to the BTT Championship game to lock it.

#3 seed seems the most probable at this point with an outside possibility of a #4 seed if they shit the bed. I don't think they fall any further than that unless they lose out and then a nightmare scenario of a #5 seed.

Michigan is a near lock for a #1 seed. Illinois or Ohio State both have the remaining games to be a #1 seed.

I think the Big Ten ends up with a #1 seed, a couple #2 seeds and a #3 seed. Iowa just needs to make sure they don't drop any lower than a #3 seed. That at least avoids a potential game against Gonzaga/Baylor/Michigan in the Sweet 16.
Doug, this is great and a wonderful breakdown. However, as we both know Fran will be resting Luka to save his job. We will be a 5 seed.
 
Joined
Sep 21, 2010
Messages
12,201
Reaction score
-3,985

Right now you have consensus on three of the 2 seeds but we’re right there in the mix for that last one with WVU, Houston, FSU and then some separation until that last 3.
The bottom of the 3 line through the 5’s have taken a lot of losses lately and aren’t playing great. Kansas and Arkansas are the only teams on the 4 line trending up.

They haven’t valued Saturday-Sunday of championship week very much at all on recent years for seeding. Obviously depends on what others do also but if we win these last 3, I think we’re assured of a 3 at worst with a great shot at a 2. Not a huge gap between a 2 and 3 but it would be awesome to get the 2. Sure as hell want to avoid being a 4.

Doug laid out the BTT stuff well. Huge game, hope Young isn’t playing for them.
 

CamelTones

Has Shoved A Live Shrimp Up His Ass
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
20,847
Reaction score
-5,780
With no Nunge, curious what Fran does when Suey is in the game. I assume he goes zone but that didn’t exactly work really great last time.
 

Revolver

Will Ruin Your Thread and Crush Your Dreams
Joined
Jan 4, 2011
Messages
27,663
Reaction score
-26,609
Hope Weiskamp shows up
There is zero chance that happens for the rest of the season. It hasn’t happened yet, and to my knowledge has never happened in the history of Iowa Basketball.

Yes, I’m triggered.
 

Thomas Wolsey

Likes Your Post
Joined
Oct 16, 2017
Messages
12,205
Reaction score
1,324
In German the saying is "when I and E go walking, the last one does the talking".

Also, I hope they just play man defense and run shooters of the three point line. If they do that and OSU scores a ton, then fine.
 

CamelTones

Has Shoved A Live Shrimp Up His Ass
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
20,847
Reaction score
-5,780
I felt better about the Michigan game than I do this one. So they’ll probably win.
 
Top