**Official Minnesota vs. Iowa Football Thread - 2:30pm - BTN**

MikeyJoe

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Because Iowa could make a mistake on offense and do something bad, and we can't have that happen.
Actually let's look at that, which I should have done originally. Again, using NFL PBP data, if Iowa had turned the ball over to MN up 2 with ~1:50 left on the 3 yard line, MN would have had a ~10% chance to win. So kicking the FG only gained Iowa 5%, whereas scoring a TD would have gained them 10%. You'd have to think that you were more likely to turn the ball over than score a TD for that decision to make any sense.
 
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Alan Lomax

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Actually let's look at that, which I should have done originally. Again, using NFL BPB data, if Iowa had turned the ball over to MN up 2 with ~1:50 left on the 3 yard line, MN would have had a ~10% chance to win. So kicking the FG only gained Iowa 5%, whereas scoring a TD would have gained them 10%. You'd have to think that you were more likely to turn the ball over than score a TD for that decision to make any sense.
The thing that I think pisses me off as much as anything is that PJ knew exactly what Kirk was doing, and played it pretty much perfectly. PJ Fucking Fleck, that guy fucking sucks and he read Kirk like a book. That should keep Kirk up at night.
 

HawkLax6

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Fwiw, I just simply don't believe them. Brian probably thought two sneaks would do it, then on third thought Goodson had the better chance to pick it up.
I think they were caught off guard. They run the sneak, Minnesota doesn't take a time out then you see a semi-confused Padilla looking to the sideline as to what to do next as whatever they told him wasn't working and they flash the camera on Kirk/Brian and they are kind of talking things then Iowa calls a time out before picking up a delay of game. Then they commit to the not scoring QB sneak thing again.
 

Alan Lomax

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I think they were caught off guard. They run the sneak, Minnesota doesn't take a time out then you see a semi-confused Padilla looking to the sideline as to what to do next as whatever they told him wasn't working and they flash the camera on Kirk/Brian and they are kind of talking things then Iowa calls a time out before picking up a delay of game. Then they commit to the not scoring QB sneak thing again.
You forgot when they decided the slow developing outside zone run would be a good call to score...At that point I'm pretty sure they are damn near trying to go backwards, because why the fuck else would you run a god damn slow developing outside zone run when you are trying to gain two yards?
 

MikeyJoe

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You forgot when they decided the slow developing outside zone run would be a good call to score...At that point I'm pretty sure they are damn near trying to go backwards, because why the fuck else would you run a god damn slow developing outside zone run when you are trying to gain two yards?
This is also where the football meathead thing to do would be perfectly acceptable. If you don't want to get cute, fine, line up in the I and run it up the middle 3 times. If you don't get it, fine. Would still have made much more sense than what they did.
 

coff

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Because Iowa could make a mistake on offense and do something bad, and we can't have that happen.
I assume the win probability calculator @MikeyJoe does or could factor in the probability of something really bad, like a pick 6 or a scoop and score in those situations. I mean, I assume those are built in to the percentages. If so, the odds seem to be in favor of trying to score there
 

Hawk&Balls

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I assume the win probability calculator @MikeyJoe does or could factor in the probability of something really bad, like a pick 6 or a scoop and score in those situations. I mean, I assume those are built in to the percentages. If so, the odds seem to be in favor of trying to score there
JFC
 

coff

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Actually let's look at that, which I should have done originally. Again, using NFL BPB data, if Iowa had turned the ball over to MN up 2 with ~1:50 left on the 3 yard line, MN would have had a ~10% chance to win. So kicking the FG only gained Iowa 5%, whereas scoring a TD would have gained them 10%. You'd have to think that you were more likely to turn the ball over than score a TD for that decision to make any sense.
Scooped. My bad
 

MikeyJoe

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I assume the win probability calculator @MikeyJoe does or could factor in the probability of something really bad, like a pick 6 or a scoop and score in those situations. I mean, I assume those are built in to the percentages. If so, the odds seem to be in favor of trying to score there
That's right, they would - there's nothing fancy about a win probability calculator, it's just an aggregation of all similar situations they have from play by play data. So the odds of your hypothetical bad situation happening would be taken into account.

Sometimes people scoff at win probability analysis and think it's some esoteric formula that doesn't take into account Real Manly Football Things like momentum - but it does, because if momentum is a real thing it would be a thing that happened in all of the other similar situations that the win probability is estimating.
 
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douglasbader

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Even with football guy truisms it doesn't make sense. "Trust your defense." What, trust your defense to hold onto a 5 point with 40 seconds left but not a 9 point lead with two minutes left?

I've also never understood why you're not supposed to trust your offense. How about in that scenario "trust your offense to gain 3 yards without turning the ball over"?
Something that nobody has talked about that I wonder if it didn't affect them that there was a similar Minnesota game from 2015. Kirk has a memory like a steel trap and I'm sure remembered it.

In that game Iowa was ahead by 5 and then LeShun Daniels went on a 51 yard run to score a TD with a couple minutes left to put them up 40-28 and seemingly the game was over.

Minnesota though went 75 yards in 45 seconds and scored a TD to make it 40-35 and then had an onside kick that was pretty damn scary and Iowa had a recent history of fucking up onside kicks.

With all that said, I absolutely can see how Kirk and Brian's main concern wasn't scoring the points, but was running out enough clock and making them burn that timeout before they "tried" to score.

I don't agree with it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that is what happened on Saturday. They wanted to run the clock down, make them burn the timeout and then hopefully score. If they had to kick a FG, they would life with Minnesota having to get a TD from their own 30 yard line with about 35 seconds left.
 

douglasbader

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Also, having Hankins get burned twice for long TD's likely scared them as well giving the ball back up 9 with almost 3 minutes left.

Stupid, but won't shock me if that is how Kirk was thinking.
 

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But thats the thing- either way Minny had to get a TD. By scoring they had to get the same TD, an onside, and kick a field goal to win with less than 2:00. not to say that Iowa was trusting their defense and assuming something crazy happening
 

Swingin' Dick Stanzi

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You forgot when they decided the slow developing outside zone run would be a good call to score...At that point I'm pretty sure they are damn near trying to go backwards, because why the fuck else would you run a god damn slow developing outside zone run when you are trying to gain two yards?
I’m fairly certain they just wanted to move the ball to the left hash mark because that is where Shudak prefers to kick from. I don’t think they had any intentions of scoring on any of those three plays.
 

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Alan Lomax

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I’ve no doubt Kirk can provide a reasonable justification for what they did. That doesn’t make them any less wrong. They did the wrong thing, they did a stupid thing, and it happened to work out. Much like Joe Maddon in game 7, I’m glad his wrong decision worked out.
 
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I was at some Friendsgiving event and the girls insisted we turn the TV off at 40-28. I’m not friends with most of that group anymore.
They did you a favor though, no need for that extra stress
 

The Full Monte

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Here is the play by play of that 2015 Minnesota game.


1:12 left and having to shit our pants hoping not to give up like the 6th onside kick in the last 3 years.
Phil has been nothing short of a genius while at Iowa…but there are a couple very specific scenarios where his supposed genius is maddeningly absent. The prevent D, late game lead has let us down several times
 
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Here is the play by play of that 2015 Minnesota game.


1:12 left and having to shit our pants hoping not to give up like the 6th onside kick in the last 3 years.
I was there. The crowd doing the I-O-W-A chant while Mitch fucking Leidner drove his team effortlessly down the field was hilarious (in retrospect).
 

cloudhawk

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It never gets old listening to the lamentation of opposing fans and media complain about outgaining Iowa, more TOP than Iowa, and wondering how they lost. While in the same breath discussing the importance of scoring TD's instead of FG's in a low possession game.
 

douglasbader

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I pulled a brants and had headed for the exit right after Daniels scored to go have a drink at a tailgate next to where the bubble was. The I-O-W-A!! chant was deafening and as I'm walking I see Minnesota score on someone's RV that had DirecTV on it. Stood there sweating it out until they got that onside kick.
 

CamelTones

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Everyone chanting I O W A was completely oblivious to what was going on. People around me didn’t understand why I was upset and not participating. It dawned on everyone when they lined up for the kickoff that that game wasn’t over. It wasn’t even prevent defense, Iowa was giving up chunk plays to a bad Minnesota team.
 

CamelTones

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Given the score, the time left and the timeout situation, there was no way Iowa was going to throw a pass at the end of the game Saturday. Minnesota lined up right over Linderbaum so nothing inside was going to work. I think a lot of people are just assuming Iowa could have said we want a touchdown and they would have got it.

That series completely overshadowed the fact that they actually tried to move the ball, including going for it on 4th down on their own 30 the previous possession as well as took a couple shots down field.
 

brantshawks

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I pulled a brants and had headed for the exit right after Daniels scored to go have a drink at a tailgate next to where the bubble was. The I-O-W-A!! chant was deafening and as I'm walking I see Minnesota score on someone's RV that had DirecTV on it. Stood there sweating it out until they got that onside kick.
Unlike you, I never actually left.
 

Alan Lomax

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Given the score, the time left and the timeout situation, there was no way Iowa was going to throw a pass at the end of the game Saturday. Minnesota lined up right over Linderbaum so nothing inside was going to work. I think a lot of people are just assuming Iowa could have said we want a touchdown and they would have got it.

That series completely overshadowed the fact that they actually tried to move the ball, including going for it on 4th down on their own 30 the previous possession as well as took a couple shots down field.
It's almost like they should have did that fake fb dive pitch to Goodson and a foot race to the pylon.
 

Thomas Wolsey

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It's almost like they should have did that fake fb dive pitch to Goodson and a foot race to the pylon.
I would have been fine with 3 sneaks, three isos or play action where you tell Padilla to go down if it isn’t there. The way they ran the first sneak, it was clear they weren’t trying to move the ball.
 
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It's almost like they should have did that fake fb dive pitch to Goodson and a foot race to the pylon.
This or jet sweep, or at least some motion to freeze the defense. Maybe even naked boot with Padilla racing to the pylon.
 

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Trying to analyze what Kirk does with end of clock situations is a fool's errand. There's no explaining how bad they are at it. Whatever the dumbest possible scenario is that could be taken is usually the one chosen. It's an unnecessary wart but one we live with. End of close won games when we're leading and just trying to hang on have taken away years of all of our life expectancies.
 
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