I don't think the Michigan game will have much translation to this game. Everything was completely fucked from the start of that game. In reflecting back, it was one of the weirdest Iowa games that I can remember, right up there with Indiana 2009. A total shit show of 4 fumbles all going the wrong way, a bunch of picks, tons of missed pass interference and holding calls and some bewildering penalties and play calling.
In the Fat Brian era they have tended to bounce back from an awful offensive game on the road when coming back to Kinnick. In 2016 they got absolutely embarrassed at Penn State and then beat Top 5 Michigan. 2017 they played like dogshit at Michigan State putting up 10 points and then crushed Illinois (I know..) and played like dogshit again at Northwestern putting up 10 points and then recovered against Minnesota and crushed Ohio State. The one real exception was 2017 when they got beat by Purdue after Wisconsin embarrassed them.
Kinnick, ABC night game, not exactly the strongest Penn State game, underdog, chip on shoulder, blah blah blah. I certainly wouldn't bet against Iowa in this scenario.
Win this game, hopefully be able to take care of a really depleted Purdue and Northwestern team and they can be 7-1 and ranked in or near the Top 10 going into Wisconsin to play for control of the Big Ten West.
I think I would be a lot more worried about this team if a shitty Michigan offense had put up a bunch of points, but they didn't. The defense essentially held them to one score on the road and looked very solid doing it. They haven't had many moments of not looking like a pretty damn stout Iowa defense, so will hope that they are for real.
The offense with Brian and Nate has been hot and cold for 3 years now. Sometimes it fucking erupts, mostly at home where they feel a lot more comfortable. Have to keep hoping that they hold serve at home and eventually they break through on the road against a good team. Maybe that will be Nate's last homecoming to Wisconsin. Likely not, but it is what it is.