**2026 Iowa Football Season Thread**

[BBK]

We literally played Nebrantska at night 2 years ago

I'm aware. It was before that

 

[The Full Monte]

I think this is a fair breakdown of the CFP situation. You can maybe bicker about the exact percent but if you call Saturday a tossup, Neb home/Illinois away 75%, and Purdue a 90% likely win that puts Iowa at 25% to run the table and implies they are likely in at 10-2.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50348637/connelly-cfp-tiers-contenders-week-9

Just looking at how B10 shakes out:

Without Sayin, I have a hard time seeing OSU winning out given their remaining schedule. I think they’re gonna finish 9-3 in the regular I

That USC/UCLA game has massive stakes on the line. UCLA wins and it’s pretty clean. USC wins and it’s going to create a mess and likely complicates this for Iowa even if we manage to win out

I think OSU is B10 team that as the article says “has a sliver of a chance” at getting in with 3 losses

 

[Thrawn II]

Just looking at how B10 shakes out:

Without Sayin, I have a hard time seeing OSU winning out given their remaining schedule. I think they’re gonna finish 9-3 in the regular I

That USC/UCLA game has massive stakes on the line. UCLA wins and it’s pretty clean. USC wins and it’s going to create a mess and likely complicates this for Iowa even if we manage to win out

I think OSU is B10 team that as the article says “has a sliver of a chance” at getting in with 3 losses

gonna sound a bit like Shawnee here but I do wonder how they would treat 9–3 Ohio State vs. 10–2 Iowa if Ohio State does the ol' college hoops "he'll be back for the postseason" thing with Sayin. Would head-to-head and blaming losses on the injury allow them jump a team in the same conference with a better record?

USC still has to go to Indiana, I think they're a tough case over Iowa at 9–3 even with a win over UCLA. Their losses aren't great.

 

[cloudhawk]

If Sayin is back- OSU gets the blue blood treatment pending SEC results

 

[Creed]

gonna sound a bit like Shawnee here but I do wonder how they would treat 9–3 Ohio State vs. 10–2 Iowa if Ohio State does the ol' college hoops "he'll be back for the postseason" thing with Sayin. Would head-to-head and blaming losses on the injury allow them jump a team in the same conference with a better record?

USC still has to go to Indiana, I think they're a tough case over Iowa at 9–3 even with a win over UCLA. Their losses aren't great.

If Texas is a playoff caliber team, it’s hard to leave out Ohio State for that loss. It further discourages marquee non conference matchups.

 

[ddevries]

It would seem Iowa’s best hopes are for Indiana to fully knock out USC this week. And then bonus points if (unlikely) UCLA loses 3 of their last 4. Then Iowa would be the 3rd/4th Big Ten team.

That seems more likely to me than expecting Ohio State or Indiana to lose twice more. Lastly, Notre Dame would have to lose twice for Iowa to pass them. Even though a Miami win this week should theoretically put Iowa ahead of Notre Dame.

 

[Billy Butters]

If Texas is a playoff caliber team, it’s hard to leave out Ohio State for that loss. It further discourages marquee non conference matchups.

I don't think so when the field expands to 24. Playing and even losing to a good team will be the difference in some cases when we are dealing with 9-3 teams.

 

[The Full Monte]

gonna sound a bit like Shawnee here but I do wonder how they would treat 9–3 Ohio State vs. 10–2 Iowa if Ohio State does the ol' college hoops "he'll be back for the postseason" thing with Sayin. Would head-to-head and blaming losses on the injury allow them jump a team in the same conference with a better record?

USC still has to go to Indiana, I think they're a tough case over Iowa at 9–3 even with a win over UCLA. Their losses aren't great.

I think there are more scenarios that leave a 10-2 Iowa on the outside looking in than most fans probably realize

 

[Shawneemicks]

gonna sound a bit like Shawnee here but I do wonder how they would treat 9–3 Ohio State vs. 10–2 Iowa if Ohio State does the ol' college hoops "he'll be back for the postseason" thing with Sayin. Would head-to-head and blaming losses on the injury allow them jump a team in the same conference with a better record?

USC still has to go to Indiana, I think they're a tough case over Iowa at 9–3 even with a win over UCLA. Their losses aren't great.

The answer to your question is yes, they’d take Ohio st over Iowa. I don’t think it’d be much of a discussion either

 

[The Dad]

I think there are more scenarios that leave a 10-2 Iowa on the outside looking in than most fans probably realize

If that happens, we deserve to be left out for the pants shitting at Minnesota.

 

[Monster]

If that happens, we deserve to be left out for the pants shitting at Minnesota.

But, again, before the season we were talking about getting in to the playoffs at 10-2 by winning one out of 3 against Michigan, OSU, and Washington, and then winning out. Instead, Iowa won 2 of those 3. How does a loss on the road to a good Minnesota team suddenly and radically change that possibility?

 

[gohawkeyes811]

But, again, before the season we were talking about getting in to the playoffs at 10-2 by winning one out of 3 against Michigan, OSU, and Washington, and then winning out. How does a loss on the road to a good Minnesota team suddenly and radically change that possibility?

Because people are stupid and name recognition matters because of money.

 

[Hawk&Balls]

Because Minnesota doesn't have the same perception as either Michigan or what everyone assumed Washington would be

 

[Thrawn II]

But, again, before the season we were talking about getting in to the playoffs at 10-2 by winning one out of 3 against Michigan, OSU, and Washington, and then winning out. Instead, Iowa won 2 of those 3. How does a loss on the road to a good Minnesota team suddenly and radically change that possibility?

Michigan struggling has kind of hurt Iowa. In the preseason that combination would have meant either no bad losses or a quality win and an average-ish loss. Right now it’s looking like no quality wins and Minnesota maybe being a bad loss.

 

[Shawneemicks]

If Iowa goes 10-2 what % do folks think Iowa is getting in CFP.
30%? I’d say, right now right about that.

 

[Thrawn II]

in August I would have put 10-2 at probably 80.085% and right now I’d have it at probably 65%.

 

[gohawkeyes811]

If Iowa goes 10-2 what % do folks think Iowa is getting in CFP.
30%? I’d say, right now right about that.

65-70%

 

[Monster]

Ok, I guess I don't see Minnesota as a bad loss. At least not now. But I don't have a vote for the playoffs so I guess I should commence fucking myself.

 

[Hawk&Balls]

Tyfys

 

[Shawneemicks]

65-70%

You think that high? I suppose there’s gonna be a lot of SEC losses coming so hopefully you’re right

 

[gohawkeyes811]

There's just so much that can happen and winning every week from now until then would have good perception. If they start at like 20-21, I can't imagine they aren't right there between 10-12. But yeah it would definitely be dicey.

 

[The Dad]

But, again, before the season we were talking about getting in to the playoffs at 10-2 by winning one out of 3 against Michigan, OSU, and Washington, and then winning out. Instead, Iowa won 2 of those 3. How does a loss on the road to a good Minnesota team suddenly and radically change that possibility?

I’m not arguing against that. Just pissed to lose to a team we shouldn’t have by fumble fucking all over ourselves.

 

[Shawneemicks]

There's just so much that can happen and winning every week from now until then would have good perception. If they start at like 20-21, I can't imagine they aren't right there between 10-12. But yeah it would definitely be dicey.

I’m hoping they come in at 18 tonight but expect 21-22

 

[Monster]

I’m not arguing against that. Just pissed to lose to a team we shouldn’t have by fumble fucking all over ourselves.

I get it. As I've always said, it would be boring if our favorite teams won all the games they were supposed to win and lost all the games they were supposed to lose. Losing to Minnesota sucks, but upsetting a big favorite like Ohio state a couple years ago felt pretty fucking good.

 

[Hawk&Balls]

I get it. As I've always said, it would be boring if our favorite teams won all the games they were supposed to win and lost all the games they were supposed to lose.

That's kind of what we've been the last 3-4 years

 

[douglasbader]

Ohio State is fucked, they are going to lose at least 2 more times, if not 3 more.

 

[Silky Johnson]

The Big 10 is most likely only getting three teams in but I really can’t see it only being two. You want Indiana to win out and Ohio State to just implode. No other 9-3 conference team would jump 10-2 Iowa. USC needs to lose to either Indiana or UCLA, who we should really want to lose at Minnesota and Michigan.

But one game at a time, my attention is fully on Northwestern.

 

[Thrawn II]

ESPN predictor has 10-2 Iowa at 74% while FPI has them at 84%.

 

[Thomas Wolsey]

in August I would have put 10-2 at probably 80.085% and right now I’d have it at probably 69%.

Nice

 

[Thrawn II]

Nice

Grow up, Wolsey

 

[douglasbader]

The other big factor for Iowa at 10-2 is their last loss will have been on Oct. 23rd while other teams are losing right and left in the final weeks of the season.

Human factor is still huge in this, and people give value to that. This assumes Iowa isn't winning games against Purdue and Illinois 16-13 but look closer to what they did against Washington and Wisconsin.

If Iowa is winning games 30-14 type level and aren't boring as shit and look somewhat dynamic on offense, they will have a much better shot.

 

[Thomas Wolsey]

Grow up, Wolsey

If we are going to do the boobs bit, we can do the Colonel Angus bit.

 

[Thrawn II]

The other big factor for Iowa at 10-2 is their last loss will have been on Oct. 23rd while other teams are losing right and left in the final weeks of the season.

Human factor is still huge in this, and people give value to that. This assumes Iowa isn't winning games against Purdue and Illinois 16-13 but look closer to what they did against Washington and Wisconsin.

If Iowa is winning games 30-14 type level and aren't boring as shit and look somewhat dynamic on offense, they will have a much better shot.

Iowa is still a bit of a meme but weirdly beating Michigan with a 90+ yard drive through the air probably undid some damage that a 20-10 grind out wouldn’t have.

 

[douglasbader]

Iowa is still a bit of a meme but weirdly beating Michigan with a 90+ yard drive through the air probably undid some damage that a 20-10 grind out wouldn’t have.

Kirk's record in November this decade as well will factor in as Iowa hitting its peak and playing their best football late*.

*assuming that happens this year

 

[26.2]

Step 1-get to 10-2

 

[YugoslavianMountainHound]

Step 1 - Beat Northwestern. We are underdogs.

 

[Shawneemicks]

7-2

 

[douglasbader]

Step 1-get to 10-2

 

[Monster]

Step 1-get to 10-2

(Step one) we can have lots of fun
(Step two) there's so much we can do
(Step three) it's just you and me
(Step four) I can give you more
(Step five) don't you know that the time has arrived?

 

[Thomas Wolsey]

(Step one) we can have lots of fun
(Step two) there's so much we can do
(Step three) it's just you and me
(Step four) I can give you more
(Step five) don't you know that the time has arrived?

Step one Instead of ass say buns, like kiss my buns or you’re a bunshole

 

[RazHawk]

Iowas best chance to get in, assuming it wins out, is the B10 needs 3 or maybe 4 teams in. SEC is getting 4 in, so that leaves 8, and one goes G6, so you're down to 7. In order of importance, that means they need:

1. ND to lose twice, ND is an auto bid if they're in the top 12, and a 10-2 ND will get in over a 10-2 Iowa. 9-3 ND is out so that opens a spot. Unlikely, and probably impossible if they win Saturday, so cheer for Miami.
2. Need B12 Chaos, if they get two in, that takes from the B10.
3. ACC as a 1 bid league would be huge, if Wake wins out they'll get two, so cheer against Wake other than ACC championship game where it wouldn't matter.

Best case scenario for Iowa is win out, and need BYU/TTech/Houston to rack up losses.

If you assume ND is in, that means there's six spots left, if B12 and ACC each only have one, Iowa is probably comfortably in, if those are both two bid leagues, I'd guess 10-2 Iowa is probably out. Gets harder if the SEC gets 5, but I would bet a couple of SEC teams end up 8-4 that people aren't currently expecting.

 

[iowa4ever20]

The SEC all play each other a bunch the next two weeks and all but Georgia and Kentucky already have 2 losses. It is not inconceivable that the SEC only has 3 teams with 2 or fewer losses.

 

[Verbal]

Save yourselves the mental gymnastics and plan on watching Iowa play in the Citrus Bowl on January 2nd. Basketball vs. Ohio St at 11:00 a.m., bowl game against an SEC team decimated by opt-outs at 2:30. Will be a nice little Saturday.

 

[26.2]

OOPS

 

[L. Wade Childress]

But, again, before the season we were talking about getting in to the playoffs at 10-2 by winning one out of 3 against Michigan, OSU, and Washington, and then winning out. Instead, Iowa won 2 of those 3. How does a loss on the road to a good Minnesota team suddenly and radically change that possibility?

It depends on how the committee views the OSU QB situation.

 

[Wanderer]

Iowas best chance to get in, assuming it wins out, is the B10 needs 3 or maybe 4 teams in. SEC is getting 4 in, so that leaves 8, and one goes G6, so you're down to 7. In order of importance, that means they need:

1. ND to lose twice, ND is an auto bid if they're in the top 12, and a 10-2 ND will get in over a 10-2 Iowa. 9-3 ND is out so that opens a spot. Unlikely, and probably impossible if they win Saturday, so cheer for Miami.
2. Need B12 Chaos, if they get two in, that takes from the B10.
3. ACC as a 1 bid league would be huge, if Wake wins out they'll get two, so cheer against Wake other than ACC championship game where it wouldn't matter.

Best case scenario for Iowa is win out, and need BYU/TTech/Houston to rack up losses.

If you assume ND is in, that means there's six spots left, if B12 and ACC each only have one, Iowa is probably comfortably in, if those are both two bid leagues, I'd guess 10-2 Iowa is probably out. Gets harder if the SEC gets 5, but I would bet a couple of SEC teams end up 8-4 that people aren't currently expecting.

Houston has two losses. A 10-2 Houston is not getting in over Iowa unless they end up B12 champions.

 

[Mitchandrsn]

If Iowa goes 10-2 what % do folks think Iowa is getting in CFP.
30%? I’d say, right now right about that.

Iowa is +500/-800 to make the playoffs right now - so implied ~16.7% removing vig.
Iowa is +410 to have 10+ wins - so roughly ~19.6% to win out (assuming 5.5% vig).

So P(Playoff|10-2) is ~85% per the market right this moment.

 

[rodg12]

Dammit.

 

[Hawk&Balls]

What happened? Myslinski was playing in the 4th

 

[KitKatApples]

What happened? Myslinski was playing in the 4th

He hyper extended his arm at practice last week Monday and then heard a pop in his knee during the second half and came out. Knee is still pretty sore