MikeyJoe
has a big head
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With the BCS official standings out, I thought I'd take another look at Iowa's chances to get an at large bid. I typed up something quick yesterday when the projected standings came out, but here's a more comprehensive look at the current BCS standings and what has to happen for Iowa to get one of the 10 BCS bids:
1. Florida (1)
Potential Losses: 12/5 vs Alabama
In/Out: In no matter what. They make the title game or get an at-large bid.
2. Alabama (2)
Potential Losses: 11/27 @ Auburn, 12/5 vs Florida
In/Out: Potentially out if they drop the next two, but the loss @ Auburn is not likely. It's more likely that they're in the title game or get an at-large.
3. Texas (3)
Potential losses: No real tough games left. The Big 12 Title Game shouldn't even be that difficult.
In no matter what. They make the title game or get an at-large bid.
4. TCU (4)
Potential Losses: No tough games left
In/Out: I'd still be surprised if the BCS takes two non-BCS schools. So for TCU and Boise, the only issue is which gets chosen. I'll say TCU.
5. Cincinnati (5)
Potential Losses: 12/5 @ Pitt. The 11/27 game vs. a Jekyl and Hyde Illinois team is somewhat of a wildcard, but should still be a win for Cincy.
In/Out: I'll say in no matter what. If their only loss is to Pitt, I've got to think they still get an at large bid, although it'd be iffy. Cincy is the Big East's only opportunity for an at large bid. But if they lose to Illinois, all bets are off and the winner of Pitt/Cincy gets the Big East's only bid.
6. Boise State *
Potential Losses: No tough games left
In/Out: I'd still be surprised if the BCS takes two non-BCS schools. So for TCU and Boise, the only issue is which gets chosen. I'll say TCU.
7. Georgia Tech (6)
Potential losses: 11/28 vs Georgia, ACC Title Game
In/Out: In with the ACC auto bid. If they drop the ACC title game, I don't know that they'd get an at large bid, although they'd be a decent contender. If they lose to Georgia they absolutely need the auto bid.
8. LSU
Potential losses: 11/21 @ Mississippi
In/Out: LSU is out of luck. Even if they win out, they're held out by the BCS rules with the SEC already having two teams.
9. Pittsburg *
Potential losses: 11/27 @ West Virginia, 12/5 vs Cincinnati
In/Out: I've got to believe Pitt needs the Big East's auto bid to get in. If they lose to Cincinnatti, I don't think a Big East team with 2 losses gets an at large bid. Iowa fans need to hope for a Cincinnati win big time.
10. Ohio State (7)
Potential losses: Maybe 11/21 @ Michigan because of the rivalry, but Michigan sucks
In/Out: In no matter what with the Big 10's auto bid
11. Oregon (8)
Potential losses: 11/21 @ Arizona, 12/3 vs Oregon State. I wouldn't have put @ Arizona there two weeks ago, but after the Stanford loss you never know with this Oregon team.
In/Out: They look to have the Pac 10's auto bid right now, but this could change with a loss to Oregon State. The good thing for Iowa is that even if Oregon loses to Oregon State, Oregon would have 3 losses, as do the #2 and #3 Pac 10 teams. The Pac 10 isn't getting an at large bid, so it doesn't really matter to Iowa who's in this spot.
12. Oklahoma State (9)
Potential losses: 11/28 @ Oklahoma
In/Out: This is a real wildcard for Iowa. A good showing by Oklahoma State against Oklahoma and they'd be a strong candidate for an at large spot. Lose and they're out for sure. For the sake of this prediction, let's say they get it.
13. Iowa - we'll leave this to the end.
14. Penn State
Potential losses: No real tough games left. They should win 11/21 @ Michigan State
In/Out: They're the next candidate in for an at large bid should Iowa not make it, and they have a decent chance given the Penn State name to be selected above Iowa.
13. Iowa
Potential losses: Let's hope for another drubbing of Minnesota 11/21, but you never know with a freshman quarterback in his second start
In/Out: In if everything goes Iowa's way as predicted above. The biggest hurdles for Iowa right now are as follows:
1) Two non-BCS schools getting at large bids
2) Cincinnati losing to Pitt and still getting an at large bid. Texas losing the Big 12 title game would be similar.
3) Oklahoma State getting an at large bid. While this can happen and Iowa can still get an at large bid, it does take away one spot.
4) Penn State getting chosen above Iowa
5) Another surprise team having a strong showing and moving up the BCS standings in the last few weeks. #15-18 are Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Stanford, and USC.
Again, the Big 12 and Big East championships are key for Iowa. It helps Iowa tremendously if Texas and Cincy both win out. Worst case scenario for Iowa is Texas and Cincy losing, as they're both more likely to get at large bids than Iowa.
1. Florida (1)
Potential Losses: 12/5 vs Alabama
In/Out: In no matter what. They make the title game or get an at-large bid.
2. Alabama (2)
Potential Losses: 11/27 @ Auburn, 12/5 vs Florida
In/Out: Potentially out if they drop the next two, but the loss @ Auburn is not likely. It's more likely that they're in the title game or get an at-large.
3. Texas (3)
Potential losses: No real tough games left. The Big 12 Title Game shouldn't even be that difficult.
In no matter what. They make the title game or get an at-large bid.
4. TCU (4)
Potential Losses: No tough games left
In/Out: I'd still be surprised if the BCS takes two non-BCS schools. So for TCU and Boise, the only issue is which gets chosen. I'll say TCU.
5. Cincinnati (5)
Potential Losses: 12/5 @ Pitt. The 11/27 game vs. a Jekyl and Hyde Illinois team is somewhat of a wildcard, but should still be a win for Cincy.
In/Out: I'll say in no matter what. If their only loss is to Pitt, I've got to think they still get an at large bid, although it'd be iffy. Cincy is the Big East's only opportunity for an at large bid. But if they lose to Illinois, all bets are off and the winner of Pitt/Cincy gets the Big East's only bid.
6. Boise State *
Potential Losses: No tough games left
In/Out: I'd still be surprised if the BCS takes two non-BCS schools. So for TCU and Boise, the only issue is which gets chosen. I'll say TCU.
7. Georgia Tech (6)
Potential losses: 11/28 vs Georgia, ACC Title Game
In/Out: In with the ACC auto bid. If they drop the ACC title game, I don't know that they'd get an at large bid, although they'd be a decent contender. If they lose to Georgia they absolutely need the auto bid.
8. LSU
Potential losses: 11/21 @ Mississippi
In/Out: LSU is out of luck. Even if they win out, they're held out by the BCS rules with the SEC already having two teams.
9. Pittsburg *
Potential losses: 11/27 @ West Virginia, 12/5 vs Cincinnati
In/Out: I've got to believe Pitt needs the Big East's auto bid to get in. If they lose to Cincinnatti, I don't think a Big East team with 2 losses gets an at large bid. Iowa fans need to hope for a Cincinnati win big time.
10. Ohio State (7)
Potential losses: Maybe 11/21 @ Michigan because of the rivalry, but Michigan sucks
In/Out: In no matter what with the Big 10's auto bid
11. Oregon (8)
Potential losses: 11/21 @ Arizona, 12/3 vs Oregon State. I wouldn't have put @ Arizona there two weeks ago, but after the Stanford loss you never know with this Oregon team.
In/Out: They look to have the Pac 10's auto bid right now, but this could change with a loss to Oregon State. The good thing for Iowa is that even if Oregon loses to Oregon State, Oregon would have 3 losses, as do the #2 and #3 Pac 10 teams. The Pac 10 isn't getting an at large bid, so it doesn't really matter to Iowa who's in this spot.
12. Oklahoma State (9)
Potential losses: 11/28 @ Oklahoma
In/Out: This is a real wildcard for Iowa. A good showing by Oklahoma State against Oklahoma and they'd be a strong candidate for an at large spot. Lose and they're out for sure. For the sake of this prediction, let's say they get it.
13. Iowa - we'll leave this to the end.
14. Penn State
Potential losses: No real tough games left. They should win 11/21 @ Michigan State
In/Out: They're the next candidate in for an at large bid should Iowa not make it, and they have a decent chance given the Penn State name to be selected above Iowa.
13. Iowa
Potential losses: Let's hope for another drubbing of Minnesota 11/21, but you never know with a freshman quarterback in his second start
In/Out: In if everything goes Iowa's way as predicted above. The biggest hurdles for Iowa right now are as follows:
1) Two non-BCS schools getting at large bids
2) Cincinnati losing to Pitt and still getting an at large bid. Texas losing the Big 12 title game would be similar.
3) Oklahoma State getting an at large bid. While this can happen and Iowa can still get an at large bid, it does take away one spot.
4) Penn State getting chosen above Iowa
5) Another surprise team having a strong showing and moving up the BCS standings in the last few weeks. #15-18 are Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Stanford, and USC.
Again, the Big 12 and Big East championships are key for Iowa. It helps Iowa tremendously if Texas and Cincy both win out. Worst case scenario for Iowa is Texas and Cincy losing, as they're both more likely to get at large bids than Iowa.
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