***Official 2014 Offseason Thread***

[douglasbader]

I wouldn't mind a home and home with a team like UMASS or Dayton. They don't have to schedule schools like Okie State etc. just a decent team every now and then.

What is the incentive?

We don't have to watch another 100-55 game at carver against maryland eastern shore.

Lol. I guess a likely road loss would be much more enjoyable.

 

[roseboundhawk]

What is the incentive?

We don't have to watch another 100-55 game at carver against maryland eastern shore.

Lol. I guess a likely road loss would be much more enjoyable.

It would probably do more for the team than another snoozer against coppin state.

 

[Slidewilly]

You need to be realistic about this. Iowa isn't Michigan State or Kentucky and can't afford to play that type of schedule. You need at least 7 or 8 guaranteed wins at home and the non-conference is only 12 or 13 games at the most.

If Iowa is already playing UNI, Iowa State, Texas/California, Syracuse and a high level team in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, then you can't really pack in any more dangerous teams. That is 5 potential losses, so you need 7 cupcakes. The whole issue is make sure the cupcakes are ranked in the 150 range instead of sub 250.

Oh, I'm being realistic about it. The average final KenPom ratings of the seven home non-con opponents we had some discretion in scheduling for 2012 was 290. The average for the eight in 2013 was 288. One could argue that the more appropriate ratings to use would be those for the season that ended prior to scheduling those games, but by that method the average ratings were 292 for our opponents this season (excluding Abilene Christian, which wasn't even rated the previous year) and 297 for those we played in 2013. Our staff knew what they were doing in putting together those schedules.

To say we have a lot of room to improve our discretionary home non-conference schedule before we're at risk of taking a number of losses is an understatement. We've only played two teams with KenPom ratings of less than 200 in the last two years, and both of them were above 175.

There are a number of reasons the AD and the staff should be working hard to upgrade the schedule. One is to raise our RPI, which we should be able to raise substantially without damaging the overall record. Another is to actually get something out of the non-conference season other than glorified pickup games with 70% of our opponents. Playing any kind of organized, officiated game is a little better than practice, but it's much better for team and player development to play against teams that offer at least some kind of a challenge. Finally, playing so many chopped-liver teams does nothing for ticket sales and is somewhat unfair to those who do buy season tickets. Actually, the more important aspect of that last point may be how playing opponents like this affects actual attendance.

In addition to pushing our average discretionary opponent rating much closer to the 175-200 range (which still allows for a couple of dogmeat opponents to feed to the freshmen), I'd like to see the Hawks to start scheduling some home-and-homes with substantial competition. It wouldn't kill us to play two true road games against decent competition (including the BT-ACC or ISU game, which alternate road-home) out of the dozen or so non-con games we play every season. After all, we've recently traded one competitive road game we used to play every year by shifting the UNI/Drake game to a neutral site. By also losing UNI every other year as a home game, we've eliminated an opponent that didn't hurt our RPI to the extent our present level of discretionary opposition does.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that had we played a more respectable home non-con schedule the last two years, we might have made the tournament last year and avoided the play-in game this year.

 

[Mo T]

RPI made no difference this year. Shitting their pants did. If they had won the games they were favored in this year, their RPI would have been in the 20's.

 

[Slidewilly]

RPI made no difference this year. Shitting their pants did. If they had won the games they were favored in this year, their RPI would have been in the 20's.

It shouldn't surprise me that so many fans don't understand the concept of multiple causes, but it does. To put it simply, Mo: Yes, obviously had Iowa won another game or two, they probably would've avoided the play-in game. However, it may also be true that had we not played such a weak home non-conference schedule, our RPI would've been high enough to avoid the play-in game without changing the outcome of any game.

 

[HawkBall23]

RPI made no difference this year. Shitting their pants did. If they had won the games they were favored in this year, their RPI would have been in the 20's.

It shouldn't surprise me that so many fans don't understand the concept of multiple causes, but it does. To put it simply, Mo: Yes, obviously had Iowa won another game or two, they probably would've avoided the play-in game. However, it may also be true that had we not played such a weak home non-conference schedule, our RPI would've been high enough to avoid the play-in game without changing the outcome of any game.

That the RPI 'forced' the Hawks into a play-in game is more than enough proof of its outdated shittyness; that's, of course, assuming that was the "official" reasoning behind the committee's decision for Iowa's seeding and placement. Which we all know it wasn't, at least not solely.

 

[Lute_who]

The loss to jNW is what put them in the play-in game. Also the other handful of losses by 6 points or less.

 

[Ben Kenobi]

The loss to Northwestern State is much more unforgivable than any loss Fran has ever had at Iowa.

 

[Hawkstrat]

http://hawkeyedrive.com/2014/03/19/3192014-tennessee-78-iowa-65-links/

Those interviews have me excited for next year. I know some are kind of happy the season is over (obviously we all wanted Iowa to win), but I really liked what Woody, Jok and Uthoff had to say.

 

[wondergrape]

No high-major should ever willingly play Dayton at UD Arena. That's like scheduling a home and away with Fresno State football.

 

[douglasbader]

http://hawkeyedrive.com/2014/03/19/3192014-tennessee-78-iowa-65-links/

Those interviews have me excited for next year. I know some are kind of happy the season is over (obviously we all wanted Iowa to win), but I really liked what Woody, Jok and Uthoff had to say.

It can't be said enough that our players with the biggest sacks are a Freshman and Sophomore. Iowa has a bright future ahead of it with Woodbury and Jok leading this team next year.

Another thing to point out about the depth this year is our second unit guys went against quality competition every day in practice. Jok was talking about having to guard Marble all of the time and I think that will help him.

 

[wondergrape]

Jok's defensive intensity improved markedly during March. A very, very good sign.

Still, Gesell's the key. We'll improve if he improves. Or if Trey Dickerson proves to be the second coming of Pierre Jackson.

 

[douglasbader]

I still don't like that Fran went away from what made Iowa a damn good team last year with Marble at the point. I think Iowa was always at their best when he was the one distributing and forced to be more involved on the ball. They should have left him at the point and move Gesell to SG.

 

[L. Wade Childress]

I wonder if UNC would do a home and home with us while Paige is there

 

[HiawathaHawk]

http://hawkeyedrive.com/2014/03/19/3192014-tennessee-78-iowa-65-links/

Those interviews have me excited for next year. I know some are kind of happy the season is over (obviously we all wanted Iowa to win), but I really liked what Woody, Jok and Uthoff had to say.

It can't be said enough that our players with the biggest sacks are a Freshman and Sophomore. Iowa has a bright future ahead of it with Woodbury and Jok leading this team next year.

Another thing to point out about the depth this year is our second unit guys went against quality competition every day in practice. Jok was talking about having to guard Marble all of the time and I think that will help him.

I think Woody and Mike are going to take charge of this thing. I wish Uthoff could gain some of Jok's confidence and swagger.

 

[Match34]

I think Woody and Mike are going to take charge of this thing. I wish Uthoff could gain some of Jok's confidence and swagger.

 

[rodg12]

This was posted by Melsahn on Instagram tonight...

I love Iowa. Coming here was a dream and every day was like living a dream. There is always ups and downs but nothing special comes easy. The Iowa people are a blessing in so many ways. My teammates are like my brothers. I see nothing but success in the future. I will forever be a hawkeye. This is a home for me. A part of me. $LIME #GoldenBlood#BlackHearted#GoHawks

 

[YugoslavianMountainHound]

Melsahn, my friend, my brother, my slime.

 

[douglasbader]

I think Woody and Mike are going to take charge of this thing. I wish Uthoff could gain some of Jok's confidence and swagger.

Mike better find his fucking balls because nobody is following that pussy into battle at this point.

 

[Talkin' Goat]

Haven't read this thread yet, but there are obviously positives to build on next year (Woody/Jok last game for example). My biggest question is whether or not Dickerson is any different from Clemmons. Being quick with the ball is not the same as being a good PG. I'm a big Gesell fan, but he's clearly not the answer at PG. Clemmons has always seemed much quicker than Mike, but that hasn't translated into a better PG. So is there anything that makes Dickerson different? I hope so, but that's the piece that I'm still skeptical about.

 

[Jayhawki]

Iowa has a much more favorable Big Ten schedule next year. They only play Michigan and Michigan State (at home) once. No long road trip to Maryland or New York either. Indiana, Penn State and Purdue are on the road, but they should be the same or worse next year. Get to have some revenge at home against Illinois.

The non-conference schedule is pretty exciting. You have a early season highly publicized ESPN tournament at Madison Square Garden where you get to play at least 2 of Texas, California or Syracuse. They get to play Iowa State at home, UNI in Des Moines and the Big Ten/ACC Challenge likely at Pitt, NC State, Miami or even North Carolina.

That is a much improved schedule with 4 or 5 games against potential Top 30 competition with 3 of them being on the road or at a neutral site. As long as they don't completely fuck up the rest of the non-conference by scheduling sub-250 teams, the RPI should be through the roof.

I think Iowa @ UNC would be a good game next year

 

[Hawk4Life25]

Paige going pro?

I'd like to see Iowa play in Chicago more...and not against NW

 

[Herky823]

Gaining some weight and strength is only going to benefit Uthoff. every ounce of weight he can put on, he needs to. He's never, ever going to get too bulky for his frame and he'll always look like a stick but whatever he can put on, he should. It's only going to help his quickness and explosiveness, not hinder.

+1. Nobody needs to worry about Uthoff getting too bulky. It's like the overweight woman in my office that 'works out' 5 days a week. She tells everyone she does sauna and 'light machine work' because she doesn't want to look gross like those women body builders. (/csb).

It would take years for Uthoff to put on enough weight to slow him down.

 

[Slidewilly]

People are too quick to write off players as not being good enough or not being suited to a particular position.

 

[Mo T]

RPI made no difference this year. Shitting their pants did. If they had won the games they were favored in this year, their RPI would have been in the 20's.

It shouldn't surprise me that so many fans don't understand the concept of multiple causes, but it does. To put it simply, Mo: Yes, obviously had Iowa won another game or two, they probably would've avoided the play-in game. However, it may also be true that had we not played such a weak home non-conference schedule, our RPI would've been high enough to avoid the play-in game without changing the outcome of any game.

Iowa played in the play-in game because they went 1-6 down the stretch. Terrible end to the season, and it killed the RPI.

Do you think an 18-14 Iowa team (assuming we replace 4 pansies with 4 decent teams....home and away....and Iowa splits) that still goes 9-9 in the BT, finished 1-6, with an RPI of 40, avoids the play-in game?

In all reality, if Iowa beats one of Indiana/Minnesota and one of Illinois/Northwestern, their RPI is in the mid 30's, and they avoid the play-in game.

 

[Slidewilly]

Reluctantly, Mo, I'm starting to believe what other posters have said about you.

 

[Mo T]

Do you think an 18-14 Iowa team (assuming we replace 4 pansies with 4 decent teams....home and away....and Iowa splits) that still goes 9-9 in the BT, finished 1-6, with an RPI of 40, avoids the play-in game?

If you think it does, then fine. I don't think it would have. Nor do I think a 20-12 Iowa team (that replaced 4 home pansies with 4 home semi-pansies) with an RPI of 45 avoids the play-in game.

 

[Hawkstrat]

You should take every advantage to help your team. As doug mentioned above, it's not about scheduling 'decent' vs 'pansy' teams, it's about being smart in avoiding the bottom third of the RPI. There are plenty of sacrificial lambs available with better RPIs due to them playing in slightly stronger conferences. Those teams don't offer a particularly higher chance of defeat.

 

[Mo T]

I understand that, but Slidewilly is talking about scheduling teams that will increase attendance. Scheduling legitimate home-home series. To me, that would not indicate he's talking about teams in the 150-200 RPI range. Replacing Md-Eastern Shore with Pepperdine would increase RPI by maybe 1-2 points, but I don't think it's going to help attendance.

 

[Hawkstrat]

Well, maybe I need to follow along more closely before giving an opinion.

 

[CamelTones]

I understand that, but Slidewilly is talking about scheduling teams that will increase attendance. Scheduling legitimate home-home series. To me, that would not indicate he's talking about teams in the 150-200 RPI range. Replacing Md-Eastern Shore with Pepperdine would increase RPI by maybe 1-2 points, but I don't think it's going to help attendance.

What they need to do is not schedule those 250+ teams. There are plenty of teams from 150-200 they could schedule and still get a win. A team like Rhode Island.

 

[OlePeep]

I have watched Jok play for years and have felt since he got his legs back that he could become a special player. So I was already figuring on him to become a difference maker. But other than vastly improved PG play, I think Uthoff is the make/break player next year

I think his long years off understandably limited his effectiveness this season. I also think Fran got in his head some, affecting his confidence. He seemed too deferential to the veterans, which again is reasonable, but led to a seeming overall confidence crisis. He won't have any of those issues next year, and hopefully he can see what a matchup problem he presents.

If he can emerge, I think the long combo of him and Jok shooting or getting to the rim will be a big problem for opponents. I also think it will help White's game as the natural born garbage man

 

[Slidewilly]

I understand that, but Slidewilly is talking about scheduling teams that will increase attendance. Scheduling legitimate home-home series. To me, that would not indicate he's talking about teams in the 150-200 RPI range. Replacing Md-Eastern Shore with Pepperdine would increase RPI by maybe 1-2 points, but I don't think it's going to help attendance.

Yeah, that's a great synopsis of what I wrote.

 

[Dolomitey]

I'm as big a Uthoff fan as anyone, but I'd like to add a little to your "too deferential" argument. It's not Fran's fault. His first year in the PTL he was extremely deferential. Granted, his team (Larson) was stacked with Iowa players (Uthoff didn't count that year and they traded Meyer a few games in) and he was understandably a bit passive. Last summer was a tad disturbing though. It's the PTL so you expect shooters to fire. He was on Larson's team again and the focus of the offense (Larson is the only guy that tries to really coach and play a semi-real game), but it still seemed like pulling teeth to get him to keep firing. I don't take much away from the PTL, but I think his reluctance to fire at will was pretty telling.

 

[Hawk4Life25]

Uthoff will take a big step forward next year...it's one thing to make the jump from HS to college...then to redshirt and experience the level of play in practice (which is what he did for 2 years). He finally experience game action (which is another level of intensity)...he did some good things and made some plays you would expect a fresh/first year player to make.

Biggest area of improvement for him IMO is getting stronger with the ball in his hands.

 

[HiawathaHawk]

I'm as big a Uthoff fan as anyone, but I'd like to add a little to your "too deferential" argument. It's not Fran's fault. His first year in the PTL he was extremely deferential. Granted, his team (Larson) was stacked with Iowa players (Uthoff didn't count that year and they traded Meyer a few games in) and he was understandably a bit passive. Last summer was a tad disturbing though. It's the PTL so you expect shooters to fire. He was on Larson's team again and the focus of the offense (Larson is the only guy that tries to really coach and play a semi-real game), but it still seemed like pulling teeth to get him to keep firing. I don't take much away from the PTL, but I think his reluctance to fire at will was pretty telling.

Right. I love his game and skill level. Think he could easily be an All Big Ten player. But a change in mindset and approach is more important to his game than adding physical strength even though that's what everyone wants to focus on.

A lineup of Mike/Trey, Jok, Uthoff, White, Woody has a super high ceiling offensively and should be able to be a bitch in a zone. Gotta see White either improve his shot at least from mid-range and occasionally 3 and for Uthoff to realize he's the most talented offensive player on the team.

 

[HiawathaHawk]

I'd love to know what happened to Mike's mid-range pull-up. That completely disappeared. That was his initial go-to from high school through last year and should have been what he fell back upon when struggling.

 

[Shawneemicks]

I'd set the over/under on wins for next season at about 17.

And I'd probably take the under.

 

[Mr. Green]

Marble and White played like dogshit against Tenn, and yet that's a game most people think the Hawks should have won. To me, that shows there are players on the roster that can step up next year.

Throw in the continued development of players like Uthoff, Olaseni, Jok, and a couple of new faces. There is plenty of reason for optimism. Iowa can go dancing again next year.

 

[CamelTones]

Are we sure Iowa will even get an ACC-Big Ten game next year with Maryland and Rutgers joining the conference?

 

[douglasbader]

Are we sure Iowa will even get an ACC-Big Ten game next year with Maryland and Rutgers joining the conference?

Of course. Remember that the ACC had 3 teams sit out this year. They lose Maryland but add Louisville.

In 2013, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame joined the ACC, leaving three ACC teams excluded from the competition. In 2014, Maryland will leave the ACC and join the Big Ten along with Rutgers, giving that conference 14 teams, and Louisville will join the ACC, replacing Maryland and maintaining the conference's 15-team membership. The conference realignments present the possibility for the challenge to be expanded to 14 games. Imbalances in the number of teams in the conferences are resolved by dropping the larger conference's lowest finisher(s) in the prior season from the challenge pool

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACC–Big_Ten_Challenge

 

[Hawkstrat]

Della Valle is going back to Europe to play pro ball.

 

[douglasbader]

He was their McCabe. That is a net positive.

 

[DoeyHawk]

I still don't like that Fran went away from what made Iowa a damn good team last year with Marble at the point. I think Iowa was always at their best when he was the one distributing and forced to be more involved on the ball. They should have left him at the point and move Gesell to SG.

I was okay with him trying it however he should've recognized it wasn't working and made the change in I am a giant douche play.

 

[Lime]

"continue to play pro basketball"?

 

[nolookpass]

gesells fg % fell from 40% to 37.5 this yr

 

[HiawathaHawk]

gesells fg % fell from 40% to 37.5 this yr

3P% stayed the same basically despite taking a slightly fewer amount. 33-104 (.317) to 29-92 (.315).
2P% dropped. 73-159 (.459) to 61-148 (.412).
FT% also dropped. 50-63 (.794) to 49-73 (.671)

 

[Slidewilly]

The drop in FT% is the most puzzling stat of all. Marble's FT% must have dropped this year, too. What did our opponents see on film that enabled them to defend these guys better at the line?

 

[HiawathaHawk]

The drop in FT% is the most puzzling stat of all. Marble's FT% must have dropped this year, too. What did our opponents see on film that enabled them to defend these guys better at the line?

Dev went from 153-189 (.810) to 142-199 (.714).

 

[douglasbader]

The drop in FT% is the most puzzling stat of all. Marble's FT% must have dropped this year, too. What did our opponents see on film that enabled them to defend these guys better at the line?

Dev went from 153-189 (.810) to 142-199 (.714).

That is the most disappointing thing about Marble. He should have massively increased his free throw attempts this year, but instead he had roughly the same and shot them much worse.