The Fran Fade

MikeyJoe

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Last night's dose of online Iowa fan self loathing really bugged me, so I thought I'd take a look at Iowa's actual results under Fran by year. TL;DR: The "Fran Fade" is a myth.

My first theory was that in terms of overall results, of course Iowa loses more in January & February because they're not playing North Kennesaw Valley State, they're playing Big Ten teams. Kenpom has a game "resume" type rating, which takes into account both your opponent's rating and where the game was played, identifying A and B tier games as games that really help your resume in terms of the committee. If you segregate Iowa's results by month in terms of who they were playing, it's all over the place:

1612023238690.png

You can see straight off that there's no drop off at all between January & February, which tells you right away that most of the perceived "Fran Fade" really just comes down to scheduling. If you play better teams later in the schedule, your record will be worse later in the schedule. Interestingly, their best month against A tier opponents is December, which includes wins over teams like Iowa State, North Carolina, and Syracuse and Cincinnati in 2020. They're better against high quality non-conference opponents in December than they are against similarly skilled Big Ten teams. But then at the same time, Iowa under Fran is worse against decent teams in December than they are against similar quality teams in January & February. That just tells you that there's no actual conclusions to be drawn here. All of these things are small sample sizes. December, their "best" month, and March, their "worst" month actually each come down to about 2-3 games over a decade of basketball swinging those off of the overall average.

So then I thought, let's ignore opponent rating and just look at Big Ten games. Iowa actually improves under Fran as the season goes on, until they hit the Big Ten Tournament. (That's one actual conclusion in all of this - Iowa has been awful under Fran in the BTT):

1612023599508.png

So then I was really wondering why do people keep repeating this? It basically comes down to 2 years out of 10, in my opinion. If you divide the schedule in half (setting aside the BTT where Fran is an abysmal 4-13), Iowa has only really actually had 2 nose dives under Fran. In fact, they've improved in the 2nd half more often than they've gotten worse. The reality is, almost all of this is based on 2016 and 2014, where the 2nd half declines were particularly disappointing.

1612023734178.png

Even if you call the BTT a 2nd half conference game, the story doesn't change - it really just makes the 2016 and 2014 collapses look worse:

1612023900272.png

If you average it out overall, including the BTT, Fran's teams have a .467 winning record in the first half of the Big Ten schedule, and a .476 record in the 2nd half. If you exclude the BTT, it's .467 in the 1st half, .500 in the 2nd half, but then .308 in the BTT. Yikes.

All that to say, if you really want to draw any conclusions here, there's no reason to think that losing a road game against a ranked conference opponent at the end of January is evident of some made up "fade". This did highlight for me how shitty Fran's teams have been in the BTT, though.
 

Alan Lomax

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The “Fran Fade” comes from before he was even at Iowa. I remember clearly in the congratulations from classy Sienna fans wishing us the best from here on out, they warned of late year conference struggles. Iowa fans were primed for the confirmation bias.
 

demmert4

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The “Fran Fade” comes from before he was even at Iowa. I remember clearly in the congratulations from classy Sienna fans wishing us the best from here on out, they warned of late year conference struggles. Iowa fans were primed for the confirmation bias.
I’m not doubting you on what they said, but he was 16-2 and 17-1 his last two years. Three straight league titles and three straight tournament titles. If that’s a fade sign me up
 

Alan Lomax

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I’m not doubting you on what they said, but he was 16-2 and 17-1 his last two years. Three straight league titles and three straight tournament titles. If that’s a fade sign me up
Lol...indeed. My memory could be wrong, but I’m pretty confident that was the line specifically with managing lineups and players minutes.
 

cloudhawk

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Last night's dose of online Iowa fan self loathing really bugged me, so I thought I'd take a look at Iowa's actual results under Fran by year. TL;DR: The "Fran Fade" is a myth.

My first theory was that in terms of overall results, of course Iowa loses more in January & February because they're not playing North Kennesaw Valley State, they're playing Big Ten teams. Kenpom has a game "resume" type rating, which takes into account both your opponent's rating and where the game was played, identifying A and B tier games as games that really help your resume in terms of the committee. If you segregate Iowa's results by month in terms of who they were playing, it's all over the place:

View attachment 25706

You can see straight off that there's no drop off at all between January & February, which tells you right away that most of the perceived "Fran Fade" really just comes down to scheduling. If you play better teams later in the schedule, your record will be worse later in the schedule. Interestingly, their best month against A tier opponents is December, which includes wins over teams like Iowa State, North Carolina, and Syracuse and Cincinnati in 2020. They're better against high quality non-conference opponents in December than they are against similarly skilled Big Ten teams. But then at the same time, Iowa under Fran is worse against decent teams in December than they are against similar quality teams in January & February. That just tells you that there's no actual conclusions to be drawn here. All of these things are small sample sizes. December, their "best" month, and March, their "worst" month actually each come down to about 2-3 games over a decade of basketball swinging those off of the overall average.

So then I thought, let's ignore opponent rating and just look at Big Ten games. Iowa actually improves under Fran as the season goes on, until they hit the Big Ten Tournament. (That's one actual conclusion in all of this - Iowa has been awful under Fran in the BTT):

View attachment 25707

So then I was really wondering why do people keep repeating this? It basically comes down to 2 years out of 10, in my opinion. If you divide the schedule in half (setting aside the BTT where Fran is an abysmal 4-13), Iowa has only really actually had 2 nose dives under Fran. In fact, they've improved in the 2nd half more often than they've gotten worse. The reality is, almost all of this is based on 2016 and 2014, where the 2nd half declines were particularly disappointing.

View attachment 25708

Even if you call the BTT a 2nd half conference game, the story doesn't change - it really just makes the 2016 and 2014 collapses look worse:

View attachment 25709

If you average it out overall, including the BTT, Fran's teams have a .467 winning record in the first half of the Big Ten schedule, and a .476 record in the 2nd half. If you exclude the BTT, it's .467 in the 1st half, .500 in the 2nd half, but then .308 in the BTT. Yikes.

All that to say, if you really want to draw any conclusions here, there's no reason to think that losing a road game against a ranked conference opponent at the end of January is evident of some made up "fade". This did highlight for me how shitty Fran's teams have been in the BTT, though.
So after all of that it really comes down the not meeting expectations.....

Fucking Monster.....
 
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The “Fran Fade” comes from before he was even at Iowa. I remember clearly in the congratulations from classy Sienna fans wishing us the best from here on out, they warned of late year conference struggles. Iowa fans were primed for the confirmation bias.
I might be losing my mind, but I could swear that the narrative when he was hired (and reinforced by his first few years) was the exact opposite, and that his teams struggled early but improved as the season went on.
 
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iowa4ever20

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I seem to remember a couple Siena fans saying that his teams got stronger as the season progressed. Hard to argue looking at his record there. Every year they improved their conference record and ended with 3 straight tourney bids.
 
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I think it’s just called disappointment. I’d like to make a PowerPoint that shows the roller coaster of human emotions but I’m too hungover.
 

26.2

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Who was parroting the stupid "Fran Fade" this time? Zaius isn't around so I am out of negative dumb fuck suspects.
 

L. Wade Childress

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The “Fran Fade” comes from before he was even at Iowa. I remember clearly in the congratulations from classy Sienna fans wishing us the best from here on out, they warned of late year conference struggles. Iowa fans were primed for the confirmation bias.
lol, no they didn’t. They were awesome.
 
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I thought Siena fans mentioned strange substitution patterns and an occasional early season game where they looks like a special olympic team. I don't remember the fade stuff.
 

L. Wade Childress

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Yes, his was the fire and the subs, which we all liked to hear.
 

CleteyColgate

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Last night's dose of online Iowa fan self loathing really bugged me, so I thought I'd take a look at Iowa's actual results under Fran by year. TL;DR: The "Fran Fade" is a myth.

My first theory was that in terms of overall results, of course Iowa loses more in January & February because they're not playing North Kennesaw Valley State, they're playing Big Ten teams. Kenpom has a game "resume" type rating, which takes into account both your opponent's rating and where the game was played, identifying A and B tier games as games that really help your resume in terms of the committee. If you segregate Iowa's results by month in terms of who they were playing, it's all over the place:

View attachment 25706

You can see straight off that there's no drop off at all between January & February, which tells you right away that most of the perceived "Fran Fade" really just comes down to scheduling. If you play better teams later in the schedule, your record will be worse later in the schedule. Interestingly, their best month against A tier opponents is December, which includes wins over teams like Iowa State, North Carolina, and Syracuse and Cincinnati in 2020. They're better against high quality non-conference opponents in December than they are against similarly skilled Big Ten teams. But then at the same time, Iowa under Fran is worse against decent teams in December than they are against similar quality teams in January & February. That just tells you that there's no actual conclusions to be drawn here. All of these things are small sample sizes. December, their "best" month, and March, their "worst" month actually each come down to about 2-3 games over a decade of basketball swinging those off of the overall average.

So then I thought, let's ignore opponent rating and just look at Big Ten games. Iowa actually improves under Fran as the season goes on, until they hit the Big Ten Tournament. (That's one actual conclusion in all of this - Iowa has been awful under Fran in the BTT):

View attachment 25707

So then I was really wondering why do people keep repeating this? It basically comes down to 2 years out of 10, in my opinion. If you divide the schedule in half (setting aside the BTT where Fran is an abysmal 4-13), Iowa has only really actually had 2 nose dives under Fran. In fact, they've improved in the 2nd half more often than they've gotten worse. The reality is, almost all of this is based on 2016 and 2014, where the 2nd half declines were particularly disappointing.

View attachment 25708

Even if you call the BTT a 2nd half conference game, the story doesn't change - it really just makes the 2016 and 2014 collapses look worse:

View attachment 25709

If you average it out overall, including the BTT, Fran's teams have a .467 winning record in the first half of the Big Ten schedule, and a .476 record in the 2nd half. If you exclude the BTT, it's .467 in the 1st half, .500 in the 2nd half, but then .308 in the BTT. Yikes.

All that to say, if you really want to draw any conclusions here, there's no reason to think that losing a road game against a ranked conference opponent at the end of January is evident of some made up "fade". This did highlight for me how shitty Fran's teams have been in the BTT, though.
'Fran Fade' started the year Patrick got cancer and fans never let anyone forget that. Bullshit and pisses me off every time I hear the words "Fran Fade". Knuckleheads that don't know shit.
 

Harlan

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I was at a sporting event today and walked past a person in an Iowa cap and heard him say “I’m telling you, it’s the late season fade.” I laid his ass out in my mind. Don’t fuck with me.
 

CleteyColgate

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I was at a sporting event today and walked past a person in an Iowa cap and heard him say “I’m telling you, it’s the late season fade.” I laid his ass out in my mind. Don’t fuck with me.
If you weren't a pussy you would have laid his ass out period
 

The Incredible Hawk

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I was at a sporting event today and walked past a person in an Iowa cap and heard him say “I’m telling you, it’s the late season fade.” I laid his ass out in my mind. Don’t fuck with me.
Too bad you are such a pussy.
 

CamelTones

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The only reason people think it’s a thing is that it happened twice relatively close together.

What they fail to realize is sandwiched between those 2 seasons Iowa went from 6-6 in the league to 12-6.
 

Orestes

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The only reason people think it’s a thing is that it happened twice relatively close together.

What they fail to realize is sandwiched between those 2 seasons Iowa went from 6-6 in the league to 12-6.
It’s that the two years that seemed like Fran’s best years ended in disappointment. It’s emotion and sentimentality - as Mikey’s nerd work in the OP shows. We only think those are the “best years” because of the way they started.

The absurdity of the “Fran Fade” is the best argument for Monster’s take on expectations.
 
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The Fran Fade people can easily be explained, IMO. The reason why the remember the fade seasons more than others is because of how high the two teams got in the rankings, only to shit the bed down the stretch. It's the fans that only started paying attention when the Hawks were good.
 

Kamala

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Starting February 1-3 in the last four. Out of the Top 5. Quite possibly out of the Top 10.
 

BngHawk

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It’s real. (In seasons where Iowa is in the top 5 at some point)
 
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