As it stands currently, by KenPom win probability we've played our 3 toughest games already. At MSU, at Purdue and vs. MSU. Part of that was our lower ranking at the time but the two road games will remain our toughest of the year. Our first 10 games had 8 that are top 50 adjusted for location, 1 top 100 and 1 outside. The last 6 have 6 top 50, 2 top 100 and 2 outside.
After Michigan all of the toughest games remaining appear easier than by the numbers. Nebrantska on the road isn't what it appeared to be earlier without Copeland. OSU is a mess offensively aside from Wesson and we're the perfect team to get him in foul trouble even at home. At Wisconsin is the toughest game remaining and it will be a bitch but we match up well with them. Will come down to shooting.
I'm really hoping the Minnesota game was either a wakeup call or just a terrible game letdown on the road after a home loss in a big game a couple days earlier. The defense wasn't good prior to that but was at least improved and passable aside from the MSU and Purdue games. Plus this team hadn't lost to a team outside of the NET or KenPom top 12. Losing at Minnesota isn't the end of the world but we shot great, outrebounded them and turnovers weren't bad at all. Below average to pretty bad defense would have been enough to win. The total breakdown worries me.
It's cliche garbage but with this team and the remaining schedule, there isn't a game left where I'd be surprised if we win. If we establish that the Minnesota game was an anomaly defensively, we should win the Rutgers and Northwestern games at home. If not, there isn't a game where a loss would be shocking. Whole lot of rambling that probably is better summed up with the 50/50 post.
