It's not like the NBA draft where you suck so you can get a #1 draft pickMediocre with some occasional excitement and high expectations will always be better than the dogshit criminal teams
Id rather luck into the Final FourI was going to add this to the brief Frank Martin discussion, but I would much rather have a program that is respectable and relevant (regular appearances in the top 25, upper-division B10 finishes) but doesn't get deep in the tournament, than a program that lucks into a Final Four, and then is average to awful in conference, struggles to get ranked recruits, and is generally regarded as an in-state stepchild.
The level since '13-'14 has not been mediocre. Fran has developed a good program. Not a great program, but also not an average program. Iowa Fan can get bent.
8 of 9 years with no tournament sucks though. For me most of the fun as a CBB fan is the path through the season and having something good during the winter with nothing else going.Id rather luck into the Final Four
The lack of breaking through and winning the conference certainly matters as well.Top half of a conference seems like a low bar to me to be "good". Mediocre, sure. It feels like being in contention (top 3-4ish with a chance to win the conference towards the end of the year) most years would qualify a program as being "good". Iowa is an average program to everyone in the country besides the homers. And that's ok.
this is my exact feeling. I sat through the The Criminal games at carver with 1100 other fans. It was soul crushing and a terrible experience. I don’t want anymore of that.Got a bad matchup in the tournament and had an early exit with an injured team. Who knows how we would have done last year, but we didn't get the chance to find out.
Essentially spent this entire season in the Top 10, and had the best offensive player in the country for 2 straight years. We've been ranked in parts of 6 of the last 8 seasons and would have been in the NCAA tournament 6 out of those 8 years if not for COVID.
Given how low we've seen this program go, I'll fucking re-up Fran until he wants to retire. God bless that angry, angry man.
This was the essence of my post yesterday. Since 1989 they have been a sweet 16 seed 3 times, and they’ve gone to 1.The lack of breaking through and winning the conference certainly matters as well.
How many times have they actually had a shot in recent memory, Horner/Bru and then this past season.
Or look at the Sweet 16 thing, sure it sucks that they haven't won a second round game, but how many times have they put together the type of season where they would be the higher seed in the second round?
It's easy to pick apart any one loss as shooting variance or happenstance, but that's a lot of losses to 2s and 1s in the same time span.
The thing is, unless you hire a Chris Beard at the right time there aren’t any hall of fame coaches walking through that door. It is going to take time with a decent coach to build the brand up, or hitting on a Luka level player who plays at the guard position.This was the essence of my post yesterday. Since 1989 they have been a sweet 16 seed 3 times, and they’ve gone to 1.
They were a 4 in 93 and lost to Wake in second round. Went as a 5 in 99. 2006 and now this year.
Talk about bad draws all you want but it’s ridiculous to expect to be playing a 15 or 16 in second round.
@FrodoTBaggin is right. Iowa is an average program until they prove otherwise.
I’m not in any way saying Fran should go. Fuck that. He’s pulled the program from the depths of hell, and unlike some others, I’m not convinced he’s hit a ceiling.The thing is, unless you hire a Chris Beard at the right time there aren’t any hall of fame coaches walking through that door. It is going to take time with a decent coach to build the brand up, or hitting on a Luka level player who plays at the guard position.
They are above average, not average.This was the essence of my post yesterday. Since 1989 they have been a sweet 16 seed 3 times, and they’ve gone to 1.
They were a 4 in 93 and lost to Wake in second round. Went as a 5 in 99. 2006 and now this year.
Talk about bad draws all you want but it’s ridiculous to expect to be playing a 15 or 16 in second round.
@FrodoTBaggin is right. Iowa is an average program until they prove otherwise.
This is where you hear some sports movie silliness about "accepting mediocrity". Like if we all just demanded it Iowa would be better. The reality is that we make fun of other programs for putting on airs and thinking they're something they're not, but what do people expect Iowa to be? Honestly, 2017-2018 were shitty. But outside of that, since Fran's third year here, they've been at least decent 7 out of the last 9 years. Iowa could be a lot worse than that. We've all seen it.They are above average, not average.
Here is the bigger question.... why in the fuck does anyone think they can or should be anything more than that? I mean, outside of being a fan and really wanting that to happen, the reality is that it isn't exactly a realistic expectation based on history.
Is it because we saw Wisconsin go on a run the last decade? Is it because George Raveling being a cheater willing to pay for guys for a couple years skewed expectations? Hall of Famer Lute Olsen having a nice run 40 years ago before leaving for sunny Arizona? Is it because the Iowa Football program has had a great run with multiple Top 10 finishes? Is it because Iowa State lucked into Hoiberg and the transfer game before most others?
I don't get why way too many fans seem to think Iowa can and should be on the precipice of being some top level team in the Big Ten year in and year out.
At a minimum, Iowa should absolutely be behind Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland and in theory Illinois. Those are all schools that are either tradition rich or right smack in the middle of recruiting metro areas and basketball hot beds. Wisconsin and Minnesota also have inherent built in advantages being close to metro areas that have a strong recruiting base.
Iowa along with Nebrantska faces rural challenges. Rutgers, Northwestern and Penn State face tradition challenges. Even though Iowa recently made some upgrades, they still have some of the worst facilities in the Big Ten for basketball.
I love Iowa basketball and would love it if Fran made a Sweet 16 sooner than later, but it seems a ton of fans are deluded that Iowa should be a step away from competing every year for a Big Ten title and if Fran can't do that he needs to go. It's absurd.
Bo Ryan was a great coach. I hated the way his teams played, but he was great. Gard has not been as good, but it's not like they've fallen off a cliff.All of this fucking bullshit comes back to Wisconsin and their horseshoe up the ass run since the 2000's in both football and basketball.
They not only were run very well by Alvarez, but they caught some incredible luck combined with a few more advantages than Iowa can ever have. Because of that, it has set the expectations completely out of whack for IowaFan.
Take last year for example. Wisconsin is pretty shitty and arguably their best player walks out the door in early February. They are 13-10 and 6-6 in conference on February 5th.
What happens from there? They have a super weak back half of the Big Ten schedule combined with stupid luck winning every single coin flip game and BAM they win 8 in a row and are suddenly Big Ten Champions.
Does that mean Greg Gard is awesome and better than Fran? Absolutely fucking not, which you saw this year when Gard brought that entire Big Ten Championship team back and had a more balanced schedule and didn't win every coin flip game and they end up as a middling team that got trounced 3 times by Iowa.
Yep. The reality is go take a look at the KenPom Top 25 each year. Outside of a few rare circumstances, those teams all recruit and get upper level 4* and 5* players in recruiting on a consistent basis.This is where you hear some sports movie silliness about "accepting mediocrity". Like if we all just demanded it Iowa would be better. The reality is that we make fun of other programs for putting on airs and thinking they're something they're not, but what do people expect Iowa to be? Honestly, 2017-2018 were shitty. But outside of that, since Fran's third year here, they've been at least decent 7 out of the last 9 years. Iowa could be a lot worse than that. We've all seen it.
And I don't want to be defeatist about it - if Fran goes a few years without making the tournament in a row, I'd say it was time for a change. It's reasonable to expect to regularly make the tournament. But I don't know that it's reasonable to expect Iowa to regularly be a top 16 team. Which if you're not, and you want Iowa to regularly make the Sweet 16, you're saying that you actually expect Iowa to regularly be lucky. Which is an odd expectation.
Good analogy here. Wisconsin basketball has been a lot like Iowa footballl in a sense. Both are hated for their style of play and identified by fans who don't follow them as boring as fuck, but it keeps games close and gives them a chance to win and take down better programs and end up in the Top 10 more times than they likely should. Wisconsin basketball has gotten a bit higher by making a national championship game, but given the nature of college football, Iowa being within 15 second.Bo Ryan was a great coach. I hated the way his teams played, but he was great. Gard has not been as good, but it's not like they've fallen off a cliff.
Same for Wisconsin football - they've built a solid program that identifies talent that fits their system, recruits it better than they get credit for, and they're well coached.
I don't think that either of those things are out of the realm of possibility expectations for Iowa - but you have to acknowledge is what the ceiling of a program like Iowa that is hitting on all cylinders looks like. It shouldn't be the expectations floor.
I guess there is a couple ways to look at it.... we can say by the recruiting sites or do some sort of combination of the recruiting sites and actual results.Based on the 247 composite rankings, after Wieskamp (#60), the "top 80-150" guys that Fran has signed in the last few years include the McCaffery brothers, Garza, and Sandfort.
150-250ish players are Ulis, Nunge, and Frederick.
All of the other players on the roster were 250+ ranked players.
I think "top 150" is a reasonable expectation for Iowa recruiting, but it's certainly not one Fran is regularly hitting. I've said this before, but this is why it's comical when people say he can't coach. You either have to conclude that he's the best talent evaluator in the country or he's a fucking miracle worker of a talent developer.
That is correct in theory, but I will say that basketball recruiting is so much harder than football on some level. Football pretty much always has a consistent class of 20 or so players every single year or about 20% - 25% of the scholarship roster.It's also not like Fran needs to suddenly jump in the top 15 recruiting classes. If he was regularly recruiting at a level in basketball similar to where Iowa is in football (top 40ish) that would be a big improvement. You're really just talking about signing like 2 top 150 kids in every class instead of 1.
This is fair and agree with all this.Folks obviously have vastly different opinions of what mediocre vs good is. Iowa should be happy with where they're at and hold on to Fran with a death grip.
And there's nothing wrong with wanting a more athletic team that can actually defend at least a little bit. Or hiring someone to focus solely on that. Fran will always figure out ways to score points. His style won't allow his teams to contend for a B10 regular season conference championship as is (and that's ok for what the program is and the style of basketball he likes to play).
Except for Lester, Stokes, and Lohaus ( who took three years to develop), Lute's recruiting gets some rose-colored glasses. Lester was a steal and no way Iowa gets him today -- he'd be a top 30 kid, and gone by the end of his soph year. Payne was the consolation prize for Illinois HS power forwards/centers that year. Guys like Boyle and Brookins would be 3-stars now. Carfino was hyped by the Iowa media as a "consensus All-American," yet he was not in the Hoop Scoop top 100, nor on the Parade or McDonalds teams, so, he was basically Ahron Ulis.I guess there is a couple ways to look at it.... we can say by the recruiting sites or do some sort of combination of the recruiting sites and actual results.
I would say that Fran has absolutely been recruiting in the Top 80-150 range overall. As you pointed out, by the pure recruiting site numbers, he has gotten Wieskamp / Connor / Pat / Garza / Sandfort and I'm throwing in Ulis since he ended up #112 on Rivals.
The guys who didn't have those recruiting site rankings but clearly were at that level from their freshman year are bohannon, Fredrick and Keegan. That is 8 of 12 guys on the roster. I would argue that Perkins could be thrown in there as well.
My point is, along with your point of the coaching stuff, is that Fran is getting Top 80-150 level guys, and even the guys who aren't play like they should have been.
The only time he really hasn't is the 2014/2015 classes that were terrible.
No way. This is exactly what I'm talking about. There actually is still a gap between where Fran is recruiting and top 40ish classes. I don't think Lute was bringing in top 10 classes every year, but that doesn't mean that there still isn't a pretty big gap between that and where we are now.Except for Lester, Stokes, and Lohaus ( who took three years to develop), Lute's recruiting gets some rose-colored glasses. Lester was a steal and no way Iowa gets him today -- he'd be a top 30 kid, and gone by the end of his soph year. Payne was the consolation prize for Illinois HS power forwards/centers that year. Guys like Boyle and Brookins would be 3-stars now. Carfino was hyped by the Iowa media as a "consensus All-American," yet he was not in the Hoop Scoop top 100, nor on the Parade or McDonalds teams, so, he was basically Ahron Ulis.
Fran hasn't got the top end that Davis or Ravelling got, but except for his 14/15 classes, he's pulled in about what Lute did after getting lucky with Lester. The difference is that Lute was a much better coach.
I think Iowa fans are more reasonable than most other fanbases. Social media has amplified all the idiots that think their program should be a perennial T25 program.This is where you hear some sports movie silliness about "accepting mediocrity". Like if we all just demanded it Iowa would be better. The reality is that we make fun of other programs for putting on airs and thinking they're something they're not, but what do people expect Iowa to be? Honestly, 2017-2018 were shitty. But outside of that, since Fran's third year here, they've been at least decent 7 out of the last 9 years. Iowa could be a lot worse than that. We've all seen it.
And I don't want to be defeatist about it - if Fran goes a few years without making the tournament in a row, I'd say it was time for a change. It's reasonable to expect to regularly make the tournament. But I don't know that it's reasonable to expect Iowa to regularly be a top 16 team. Which if you're not, and you want Iowa to regularly make the Sweet 16, you're saying that you actually expect Iowa to regularly be lucky. Which is an odd expectation.
I mean, if the ceiling is a Top 5 regular season finish in the polls and KenPom and a Top 3 seed in the Big Ten and a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournamnet, that is a pretty fucking good ceiling. The only thing missing is a Sweet16 or better run that takes a number of factors.I think we have hit the ceiling here and it was the last two years. I hope I'm wrong, but these were great teams with no tourney/shitty tourney results.
I'm used to it and it seems stupid to think Iowa basketball is anything but a mediocre program that is nationally relevant once or twice every 10 years.
It's nearly the same for 50% of P5 basketball teams.
If Fran can keep the team near this performance for a couple of years (i. e. keep making the tournament), things have a great chance to improve.I mean, if the ceiling is a Top 5 regular season finish in the polls and KenPom and a Top 3 seed in the Big Ten and a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournamnet, that is a pretty fucking good ceiling. The only thing missing is a Sweet16 or better run that takes a number of factors.
I don't think your conclusion follows.Expectations definitely need to be rexamined. There are many more D1 basketball teams that have the ability to compete than anyone has to worry about in football. Making a Sweet 16 is probably somewhat harder than making a generic BCS bowl for a power 5 team.
IMHO FWIW
Also, it's crazy how if you change the outcome of one or two games, every fan would love Fran. Let me explain.I’m not in any way saying Fran should go. Fuck that. He’s pulled the program from the depths of hell, and unlike some others, I’m not convinced he’s hit a ceiling.
a poor man's Riley Till, IMO...Michael Baer has entered the transfer portal.
MASS TRANSFERS!!!1!
Bullshit. Baer is a much better equipment manager than Till could’ve ever dreamed of being.a poor man's Riley Till, IMO...
Right. More wins make people happier. But “let’s say they win” isn’t a relevant argument. They didn’t win. You don’t get points for being close.Also, it's crazy how if you change the outcome of one or two games, every fan would love Fran. Let me explain.
Two years ago this team was a 7 seed and took the 2 seed Tennessee to OT. Damn near won that game. Let's say they win and finally make the Sweet 16 (if, ands, and buts I know). Play along.
Let's also say this year's team gets a better draw and made the Sweet 16. That would have meant Fran's last two teams (sans COVID year) would have made the Sweet 16. EVERY Iowa fan would be creaming their pants and wanting Fran to be coach forever.
That is how damn close the margins really are.
GoodSo far only white guys transferring...hmmm
If Fran can keep making the tournament as a 2, 3,4,5 seed, I agree. But chances to make Sweet 16 dwindle dramatically as our typical 6-10 seed.If Fran can keep the team near this performance for a couple of years (i. e. keep making the tournament), things have a great chance to improve.
The idea being a perennial tournament team increases the odds of getting better players, which would give them a better chance in the tournament.If Fran can keep making the tournament as a 2, 3,4,5 seed, I agree. But chances to make Sweet 16 dwindle dramatically as our typical 6-10 seed.