**Iowa vs. Purdue Basketball - 2/5/20 - 6pm - BTN**

douglasbader

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Iowa is 16-6 and #13 in KenPom. #4 Offense and #81 Defense.

Purdue is 12-10 and #28 in KenPom. #77 Offense and #16 Defense.

This is the first game in a stretch that has 3 of 4 games on the road, but all of them are winnable. @Purdue, Nebrantska, @Indiana and @Minnesota. If they are going to contend, need to sweep these or go 3-1.
 

Creed

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I’m copying this over from the Illinois thread:

They play zero ranked teams in the next 5. Rutgers is the only one tied or ahead of Iowa that doesn’t play at least 3 games against ranked opponents in the next 5, and they play 2 plus Michigan who they just lost to.

If Iowa can go 5-0 they could be atop the standings heading to the home stretch. With as difficult as the league is, I’m not sure that’s possible but a win at Purdue would be a great start to that.

4-1 over the next 5 could almost lock up a double bye.
 

MikeyJoe

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I’m copying this over from the Illinois thread:

They play zero ranked teams in the next 5. Rutgers is the only one tied or ahead of Iowa that doesn’t play at least 3 games against ranked opponents in the next 5, and they play 2 plus Michigan who they just lost to.

If Iowa can go 5-0 they could be atop the standings heading to the home stretch. With as difficult as the league is, I’m not sure that’s possible but a win at Purdue would be a great start to that.

4-1 over the next 5 could almost lock up a double bye.
But 3 on the road. 2-3 wouldn't be out of the question.
 

Hawk&Balls

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Just win and get in the Ncaas and you're playing with house money
 

CamelTones

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Fuck that. This is one of our best chances in 40 years at the whole douche enchilada.

Get in the car kids, we're going to Chi Chi's.
Their best chance in the last 40 years was Uthoffs senior year when they were 10-1 after sweeping Purdue and MSU. They finished the year 2-5.

Biggest difference is that team was pretty much just 2 scorers. This team has 3 including a highly skilled post.
 
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I’m copying this over from the Illinois thread:

They play zero ranked teams in the next 5. Rutgers is the only one tied or ahead of Iowa that doesn’t play at least 3 games against ranked opponents in the next 5, and they play 2 plus Michigan who they just lost to.

If Iowa can go 5-0 they could be atop the standings heading to the home stretch. With as difficult as the league is, I’m not sure that’s possible but a win at Purdue would be a great start to that.

4-1 over the next 5 could almost lock up a double bye.
Rankings mean nothing this year. At Purdue, at Indiana, and at Minnesota are tough games.
 

Mo T

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People think that road wins are going to normalize at some point. It's not happening in this league. 3-2 over next 5 wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
 

CurdMan

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People think that road wins are going to normalize at some point. It's not happening in this league. 3-2 over next 5 wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
3-2 wouldn’t be a bad thing as far as NCAAT seeding outlook. But it would just about kill reasonable hope for a big ten title, barring them getting really hot and winning out from there. I am not expecting a douche title by any means, but there isn’t a team in the league more accomplished than Iowa to this point
 

MikeyJoe

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3-2 wouldn’t be a bad thing as far as NCAAT seeding outlook. But it would just about kill reasonable hope for a big ten title, barring them getting really hot and winning out from there. I am not expecting a douche title by any means, but there isn’t a team in the league more accomplished than Iowa to this point
13 wins is projected to win the Big Ten right now. Iowa's sitting at 7.

They should win at home vs. Nebrantska, Penn State, and Purdue. No chance in hell they're winning at MSU. So that's 10 wins.

You then need 3 wins out of @Purdue, @Indiana, @Minnesota, vs. OSU, and @Illinois. Very possible, but you're talking about 3 wins out of a group of 5 games with 4 of them on the road. Iowa's good enough to win any of those games, but I just don't see 3 wins happening. That also involves not laying an egg in any of the above home games you're counting on carrying.
 

douglasbader

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13 wins is projected to win the Big Ten right now. Iowa's sitting at 7.

They should win at home vs. Nebrantska, Penn State, and Purdue. No chance in hell they're winning at MSU. So that's 10 wins.

You then need 3 wins out of @Purdue, @Indiana, @Minnesota, vs. OSU, and @Illinois. Very possible, but you're talking about 3 wins out of a group of 5 games with 4 of them on the road. Iowa's good enough to win any of those games, but I just don't see 3 wins happening. That also involves not laying an egg in any of the above home games you're counting on carrying.
Disagree on winning at MSU. I think they are going to do it this year.
 

Mo T

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No. I want to see 40 minutes of Pemsl, lil Baer, and Riley Till at Breslin.
i'd rather have Iowa lock up the BTT before the Illinois game, and bring in the subs.
 

CamelTones

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Wieskamp needs to hit shots in the road. He’s struggled all year from 3 on the road. Started well against Maryland before fading (from 3).

If Iowa can get to the Michigan State game within a game of 1st they have a great shot. The only problem is they play the 2 teams they’ll likely be chasing on the road in 2 of those last 4 games.
 

douglasbader

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Wieskamp needs to hit shots in the road. He’s struggled all year from 3 on the road. Started well against Maryland before fading (from 3).

If Iowa can get to the Michigan State game within a game of 1st they have a great shot. The only problem is they play the 2 teams they’ll likely be chasing on the road in 2 of those last 4 games.
Fran should help Wieskamp out while at the same time being unpredictable. They should get Wieskamp in the post early in the game and bring Garza out so they aren't so reliant on Wieskamp hitting exclusively threes early.

He seems to be a much better player when he gets going inside out first.
 

douglasbader

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I'm also going to feel pretty good about Iowa if they score 20+ in the first 10 minutes. They have been struggling big time early in games and that needs to change, even if it is on the road.

They have had to come back from a sizable and 2nd half deficit 5 games in a row. Even against Northwestern they only had a 5 point lead until 11 minutes left in the game.
 
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I'm also going to feel pretty good about Iowa if they score 20+ in the first 10 minutes. They have been struggling big time early in games and that needs to change, even if it is on the road.

They have had to come back from a sizable and 2nd half deficit 5 games in a row. Even against Northwestern they only had a 5 point lead until 11 minutes left in the game.
A good chunk of that is opponent based. Last 4 opponents are top 25 defenses in the country and 4 of the top 6 in the league. Purdue is 16th nationally and 4th in the Big Ten, plus they're not likely to get called for holding and grabbing cutters early at home.
 

douglasbader

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A good chunk of that is opponent based. Last 4 opponents are top 25 defenses in the country and 4 of the top 6 in the league. Purdue is 16th nationally and 4th in the Big Ten, plus they're not likely to get called for holding and grabbing cutters early at home.
I am happy that we have Nebrantska as a likely slump buster on Saturday.
 
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I am happy that we have Nebrantska as a likely slump buster on Saturday.
Iowa’s shooting numbers were pretty solid yesterday. Were their efficiency telling a different story? I get that they started slow but thought they were pretty solid otherwise.
 
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Yeah they were very good. Just have had ugly stretches but overall have remained efficient given the opponents.
1.15 PPP yesterday, 1.03 at Maryland, .97 vs. Wisconsin, 1.19 vs. Rutgers.
At Nebrantska, vs. Wisconsin and home vs. Maryland are the only I am a giant douche games they've been held under 1.00 per trip. Two of the 3 were without CJ.

By game it's 1.23, 1.11, 1.14, .99, .96, 1.17, 1.24, 1.19, .97, 1.03, 1.15.
 

Bovert

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13 wins is projected to win the Big Ten right now. Iowa's sitting at 7.

They should win at home vs. Nebrantska, Penn State, and Purdue. No chance in hell they're winning at MSU. So that's 10 wins.

You then need 3 wins out of @Purdue, @Indiana, @Minnesota, vs. OSU, and @Illinois. Very possible, but you're talking about 3 wins out of a group of 5 games with 4 of them on the road. Iowa's good enough to win any of those games, but I just don't see 3 wins happening. That also involves not laying an egg in any of the above home games you're counting on carrying.
PSU is just as good, if not better, than OSU (in my expert opinion)
 

CurdMan

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Iowa is probably on track to have 3 guys make all big ten, and RK will at least be in the conversation for 6th man of the year. If you have 3 of the best 15 players in the conference (including the best) you don’t write off any game as unwinnable
 

douglasbader

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Iowa is probably on track to have 3 guys make all big ten, and RK will at least be in the conversation for 6th man of the year. If you have 3 of the best 15 players in the conference (including the best) you don’t write off any game as unwinnable
I would be shocked if CJ Fredrick made anything but the All-Freshman team and honorable mention for the regular teams.

He is 23rd in scoring overall and 25th in conference only. At a minimum I think the following guys will likely be All-Big Ten before Fredrick....

1st Team
Winston - MSU
Cowan - Maryland
Stevens - PSU
Oturu - Minnesota
Garza - Iowa

2nd Team
Simpson - Michigan
Dosunmu - Illinois
Wieskamp - Iowa
Jalen Smith - Maryland
Wesson - OSU

3rd Team
Carr - Minnesota
Harper Jr - Rutgers or Jones - PSU
Tillman - MSU
Teske - Michigan or Reuvers - Wisconsin
Cockburn - Illinois
 
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13 wins is projected to win the Big Ten right now. Iowa's sitting at 7.

They should win at home vs. Nebrantska, Penn State, and Purdue. No chance in hell they're winning at MSU. So that's 10 wins.

You then need 3 wins out of @Purdue, @Indiana, @Minnesota, vs. OSU, and @Illinois. Very possible, but you're talking about 3 wins out of a group of 5 games with 4 of them on the road. Iowa's good enough to win any of those games, but I just don't see 3 wins happening. That also involves not laying an egg in any of the above home games you're counting on carrying.
Unless OSU turns their shit around before then, Iowa is gonna boatrace the Buckeyes in Carver.

Garza is gonna chew up and spit out that fucking Caleb Wesson!
 

douglasbader

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All-Freshman team is likely this....

Carton (if he comes back strong) - OSU
Fredrick - Iowa
Watts - MSU
Jackson-Davis - Indiana
Cockburn - Illinois
 

CurdMan

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I stand by CJ making all big ten (freshman counts) and being a top 15 player in this league. Give me him over Carr, Jones, Teske, etc all day
 

douglasbader

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I standby CJ making all big ten (freshman counts) and being a top 15 player in this league. Give me him over Carr, Jones, Teske, etc all day
I'm not saying that I would take them over Fredrick, but more saying that it is very unlikely he makes any All-Big Ten team except for Freshman.
 

Mo T

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I'm not convinced carton comes back at all this year.
 

Stomper15

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I'm not convinced carton comes back at all this year.
Agreed. When you're dealing with severe depression or worse (bipolar, PTSD), that's not something you rebound from in a few weeks. That's something that takes time and is always a work in progress -- some would argue that you're never cured. It's not like you go to the doctor, get a prescription and are magically feeling better in 10 days like what happens when you have the flu.

I can't imagine dealing with mental illness on top of the rigors of being a D1 athlete.
--Being away from home for the first time
--Adjusting to college academics
--Leaving and getting home from road trips at insane hours
--Being under the scrutiny of media and rabid fans
--Playing in insane road environments
--Being continually mentally and physically exhausted given the intensity of playing in the Big Ten night after night.
 
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I hope you’re right but I don’t think that’s it. why not just leave the team outright? Why the explanation and portraying it as having had longer term issues?
 

hawkeyealum

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Agreed. When you're dealing with severe depression or worse (bipolar, PTSD), that's not something you rebound from in a few weeks. That's something that takes time and is always a work in progress -- some would argue that you're never cured. It's not like you go to the doctor, get a prescription and are magically feeling better in 10 days like what happens when you have the flu.

I can't imagine dealing with mental illness on top of the rigors of being a D1 athlete.
--Being away from home for the first time
--Adjusting to college academics
--Leaving and getting home from road trips at insane hours
--Being under the scrutiny of media and rabid fans
--Playing in insane road environments
--Being continually mentally and physically exhausted given the intensity of playing in the Big Ten night after night.
The abundance of willing college pussy should help him out
 

BBK

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I hope you’re right but I don’t think that’s it. why not just leave the team outright? Why the explanation and portraying it as having had longer term issues?
Buys him time to make an "informed" decision on his next step.

I can't remember if sitting out a year is still a thing or not, but if it is that would be another strategy to avoiding that.
 

CamelTones

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Yeah, I don't think he's transferring.


 

Monster

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I love this team but 3-1 or 4-0 expectations seem high to me through that stretch.

I'd be fine with 2-2.
Smart.

This is definitely one of those times you should fight against expectations creeping in. Things have gone so well, far better than anyone could have hoped. Now we are actually thinking conference title, b10 tourney title, sweet 16 or even better. Dangerous. That's how it happens.

I'm just enjoying the ride. It's been fun.
 
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Smart.

This is definitely one of those times you should fight against expectations creeping in. Things have gone so well, far better than anyone could have hoped. Now we are actually thinking conference title, b10 tourney title, sweet 16 or even better. Dangerous. That's how it happens.

I'm just enjoying the ride. It's been fun.
I want to like and bow this post.
 

Thomas Wolsey

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Smart.

This is definitely one of those times you should fight against expectations creeping in. Things have gone so well, far better than anyone could have hoped. Now we are actually thinking conference title, b10 tourney title, sweet 16 or even better. Dangerous. That's how it happens.

I'm just enjoying the ride. It's been fun.
🌈
 

douglasbader

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Smart.

This is definitely one of those times you should fight against expectations creeping in. Things have gone so well, far better than anyone could have hoped. Now we are actually thinking conference title, b10 tourney title, sweet 16 or even better. Dangerous. That's how it happens.

I'm just enjoying the ride. It's been fun.
I get what you are saying, but I am going to give this group the respect that they can handle it. The biggest danger to this group is another injury to one of the Top 3 players, not any expectations.
 

Monster

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I get what you are saying, but I am going to give this group the respect that they can handle it. The biggest danger to this group is another injury to one of the Top 3 players, not any expectations.
Expectations aren't a danger to the team. What we expect of them has no impact on them whatsoever.
 

AZmess

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My favorite are the people that freak out when the teams drops a few games and when you talk to them about no one expected this from this team they respond with “yes but expectations change when you start winning!”

right.
 
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