***Official 2014 Offseason Thread***

[douglasbader]

The other teams being mentally tougher than Iowa is not luck and does not even out. 3 or 4 close losses, yeah you could say it was the bounce of the ball here or there. 13 over two years? That is not bad luck.

Hot Sports Take!!!!11#%$^$%&U

 

[scottsdalehawk]

Maybe it'll even out with the turnover in the roster however if you kept the same Iowa players from the last 2 years I am certain they'd continue to lose close games.

 

[Herky823]

The biggest problem was having no go-to guy in the clutch. Sure, some may have been bad luck or whatever, but a trend like the last couple years doesn't happen with a legit go-to guy on the floor.

Do you have anything to back that up? Because it just doesn't work like that a lot of the time. It's just stuff that gets built after the fact.

I'm just going on what I've watched over the last couple years. If you want a stat, the one about us not converting a go ahead shot at the end of the game over the last 12 billion chances (can't remember the specifics, but you know what I mean) is pretty telling. Fran drew up plays for several different players at the end of the games last year and no one converted. Many were good looks, but still nothing. A go-to guy isn't going to make it every time, but he'll at least want the ball and succeed every once in awhile. Plus when other teams know who you're going to, that gives you the chance to use it to your advantage and use them as a decoy from time to time.

Seems like Dev could have been that guy, but when Fran would let him do his thing, he generally wasn't getting off a great shot. He finally got the one at the end of regulation against Tennessee, but a couple of those during the regular season would have been huge.

I don't think this is something that was built after the fact either. If the Hawks were down 1 with the ball and 30 seconds left, who did you want getting the ball? There was no obvious answer last year. My answer would have been Dev, but I'd realize he was probably going to try and get fancy one-on-one and I'd just hope he made whatever shot he threw up.

Hopefully that's something that will be different this year. I don't care who does it (maybe Jok or Uthoff??), but if somebody can convert a couple key buckets, it will be big for their confidence and the team's confidence.

As in, within the margin of error of his normal shooting percentage.

 

[chaneccooms]

Scott Dochterman ‏@ScottDochterman Jun 18
Iowa PG Mike Gesell will join C Adam Woodbury on USA East Coast traveling team to Estonia & Finland.

 

[castichawk24]

I'm telling you, boyz, Iowa has been kicked in the balls so many times the last 2 seasons that this year has redemption built all over it. At least I fucking hope so.

Don't do it to yourself, Doug.

A stat tard like yourself should be saying the opposite at this point. MikeyBPredict should know that eventually the luck evens out and it is at that point where it pretty much has to.

I'm all in on Uhl as well, and not because of that dunk last night. From watching his highlights the past year and with the system Fran runs, he is going to be the best recruit he has gotten so far.

That's not how stats work, dougie. The law of large numbers is what people think they are referring to, but what it actually means is that if something is supposed to happen x% of the time, but it starts happening at a lower rate over a period of time, the more and more trials that occur, the overall % is going to get closer and closer to x% because of a higher sample size that we still expect each occurrence to happen at x%.

Example: We expect heads to be flipped 50% of the time. Our first 10 tries yield 10 tails. We are at 0%. Retards think that heads is more likely to come next, and at a higher rate it the near future. That is, of course, retarded. We still expect 50% each occurrence. So in the after the next 95 trials, we would expect 50% or 47.5 occurrences of heads, making the rate 47.5% over 100. Over the next 995 we expect 497.5 heads, to get us to 49.75%. And over the next 999,995 trials we expect 499997.5, or 49.9975% (virtually 50%)

This is basically one of the principals stemming from conditional probability. A previous outcome has no bearing on the next outcome given they are independent trials.

I hope that helps, dougie.

 

[douglasbader]

This is false, Castic. Iowa is DUE so fucking bring it in!!!!11#^$&#$&

 

[HiawathaHawk]

I don't know what will happen this year but we aren't doomed to losing such a high rate of close games forever. When I went through his history a year or so ago, Fran has had years on both sides of the extreme but mainly roughly average like most coaches.

 

[Pinehawk]

Went to the Prime Time League tonight. Tried bouncing between games to check out the Iowa guys.

Woodbury and Olseni were matched up and were battling each other down low. Each made some great shots under heavy pressure. Woodbury really played well.

Got to see Dominique Uhl play. He didn't make a huge impact in the game while I was watching, but he did have one nice driving reverse layup. Looks like he needs to put on some weight/muscle.

Was hoping to see Dickerson, but he wasn't there, nor was Ellingson.

Aaron White was dominating the action whenever he was on the court. He looked great. Gessel played alright. He got hot at one point and hit a few 3's in a row.

The UNI guys really impressed me. Numerous times I'd check the roster after a nice play and it was a UNI player. They got a really good player in Wyatt Lohaus. He can really handle the ball and was one of the best players on the court.

 

[Hawkstrat]

Dickerson arrives in Iowa City tomorrow, so he'll be playing next week.

 

[Herky823]

I think I"ll be going when it's in waterloo either the 3rd or 10th. The summer really sucks for sports.

 

[Hawk_Kegmasters]

Saw this on PSD's Twitter. Looks like Uthoff is going the facial hair route this upcoming season. Probably a good move to try and hide his goofy-ass face.

http://www.courtsidefilms.com/news_article/show/400363?referrer_id=1203619

 

[chaneccooms]

Jok 8-14 from three tonight.

 

[douglasbader]

There are highlights on TOS and Uthoff is dunking like a mother fucker now.

 

[douglasbader]

Dickerson is shorter than I thought, but you can see how he will help being quick enough to penetrate and dish to others. Iowa didn't have anyone close to him last year that can beat his man off the dribble to create for others as a PG or main ball handler.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

Uthoff has so much potential.He could be special.

 

[HiawathaHawk]

Uthoff has so much potential.He could be special.

Yep. More NBA potential that White in my opinion.

 

[MikeyJoe]

Absolutely. Because he can shoot.

 

[StinkyMcFadden]

Everyone's first impression of Dickerson on the free board: Smaller than they thought and not quick.

I'll take that every day of the week.

 

[CamelTones]

Uthoff has so much potential.He could be special.

I hope he finds it this year. He played scared last year which really hurt the team.

 

[Slidewilly]

More PTL highlights. UNI will be a fairly talented and athletic team this season.

 

[Hawkstrat]

Uthoff at 2:13

 

[Hawk_Kegmasters]

WTF? was that Gesell at :40?

 

[MikeyJoe]

Dickerson looks plenty quick. Hopefully Fran can knock that garbage drive shit out and he'll be a distributor.

 

[Slidewilly]

WTF? was that Gesell at :40?

He's a heck of an athlete. Hope he finds a way to put it all to good use these last two years.

 

[Grandma]

LOL that half of those highlights are Kyle Haber being absolutely abused.

Dom Uhl looks like he has some legit potential. Gets up with the ease of White and has a more natural looking jumper than Uthoff. I expect it'll take him a couple years to get the level figured out, but he should be good.

Jok's shot release is as quick as any Hawkeye in recent memory.

Dickerson doesn't look lightning quick like the kid from Minnesota, but he has change of pace figured out. He's definitely quicker than either Clemmons or Gesell.

 

[douglasbader]

Iowa is going to be a better team this year, possibly a lot better.

 

[HawkLax6]

Uthoff at 2:13

Dirk approves.

 

[opiate of the masses]

Everyone's first impression of Dickerson on the free board: Smaller than they thought and not quick.

I'll take that every day of the week.

lol you way overdo the pessimism thing over here

i just read that thread and that definitely is not "everyone's first impression"

many of the apercus regarding his debut were very favorable. altho peeps do tend to agree that he is smaller than expected, they also generally agree that he will be our quickest guard

 

[Lefty]

Nice turn around fade away jumper by Oleseni at :48.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

Iowa is going to be a better team this year, possibly a lot better.

Agree. Although I'm a little afraid of there still being too many options for Fran. He's obviously going to want to give White touches even though zero offense should flow through him unless he's got a mismatch on the post. He needs to be a transition scorer/garbage man only. Let others set him up but I'm sure we'll see too much focus on him offensively. Hopefully Uthoff feels more ownership of the team this year and really steps it up and does waht he's capable of doing. He's a matchup nightmare anywhere on the court. I think Jok is going to be really, really good for us this year. And Woody needs to be getting a ton of touches down low. Hell, Gabe should be getting a bunch of touches on the block/mid-block. None of that will matter if they play shitty defense though like they did in the second half of last season. That end probably does start with White. Everyone else at least seems to be engaged and willing defensively. He just drifts. I'm sure I'll be disappointed, I thought last year was going to be a special year. Hopefully I was just off by a year.

 

[Herky823]

Uthoff at 2:13

Dirk approves.

That was exactly my thought. Knee up and everything.

 

[hawkeyealum]

Iowa is going to be a better team this year, possibly a lot better.

Agree. Although I'm a little afraid of there still being too many options for Fran. He's obviously going to want to give White touches even though zero offense should flow through him unless he's got a mismatch on the post. He needs to be a transition scorer/garbage man only. Let others set him up but I'm sure we'll see too much focus on him offensively. Hopefully Uthoff feels more ownership of the team this year and really steps it up and does waht he's capable of doing. He's a matchup nightmare anywhere on the court. I think Jok is going to be really, really good for us this year. And Woody needs to be getting a ton of touches down low. Hell, Gabe should be getting a bunch of touches on the block/mid-block. None of that will matter if they play shitty defense though like they did in the second half of last season. That end probably does start with White. Everyone else at least seems to be engaged and willing defensively. He just drifts. I'm sure I'll be disappointed, I thought last year was going to be a special year. Hopefully I was just off by a year.

I think Iowa will be better assuming Uthoff isn't a pussy once big ten season starts and the defense are trying to bully him. I don't expect Fran to run the offense through White, or at least no more than he did last year. I expect it will run through Jok, AW, and Uthoff. I also suspect we will run even more this year with three point guards and no fat mccabe on the court which is where white will excel.

 

[douglasbader]

The team has been cleansed of all non-Big Ten, non-athlete, undersized players that were products of The Criminal and being a 10 win team. The addition by subtraction factor, even with not having Marble, is huge. Getting McCabe and Basabe off the court for the roughly 40 minutes they were playing last year is going to have an enormous impact. It is even a good thing that a putz like Kyle Meyer is gone.

You trade out a 6'7'' McCabe for a 6'9'' Uthoff and a 6'7'' Basabe for a 6'10'' Olaseni. The athleticism and length goes way up.

 

[chaneccooms]

Which is why I still don't get the Ellingson offer. He gives you the exact opposite.

 

[douglasbader]

Which is why I still don't get the Ellingson offer. He gives you the exact opposite.

Nah, I don't mind that one because he is a specialist shooter and you can never have too much shooting. Don't forget that he is very likely to redshirt this year and might not ever play anyways. Every team needs a Kent McCausland. If he can't shoot, he won't play.

 

[Slidewilly]

I would much rather have landed a more dynamic 2G who could do something with the ball in his hands other than shoot, and could defend against the athletic wings we'll see in most of our games. I don't think Ellingson is that guy, but I'm hopeful that he's better than what we all thought when he signed.

There's plenty of time to get excited about the upcoming season. We should have a decent idea as to whether lofty expectations are in order by early December, thanks to the tournament in NYC and the game at Carolina. After the last two seasons I'm more inclined to try to keep my expectations in check and hope to be very pleasantly surprised. It's not difficult to keep expectations in check when you consider the following:

1. The only somewhat consistent go-to guy we had last season is gone. None of the returning players showed both the inclination to take over at crunch time and the ability to succeed at it consistently, and some showed neither. Of course, their opportunities to show what they could do were also limited by having so many key shots at winning time taken by Marble and McCabe, and most of those were missed.

2. There seems to be a lot of unrealized potential on the team but who knows when or if it will be realized among guys like Olaseni, Woodbury, Gesell and Jok. Will Fran finally focus on feeding the post? Can Mike start making shots when it matters? Jok is going to get the PT this season--will he turn into the reliable scoring threat we need him to be?

3. Guard play has to improve. Maybe not having Marble out there as the bailout guy will actually help. The guys who are out there will have to be thinking about getting it done themselves, and hopefully will be better able to make use of sets to do it. We really need some guys to step up on getting into the lane and creating for others when the sets don't work.

4. Our defense was pathetic down the disastrous stretch run last season. I'm still not sure we know why that happened, but team and individual defense (including avoidance of fouls in the post) has to improve pretty much across the board. It's at least possible that some improvement in our defense (and avoidance of fouls) will be improved by the absence of a graduating senior or two.

I can't remember going into a season in which we've had so many guys with significant talent but for whom the light hasn't really gone on yet. Olaseni, Woody, Uthoff, Gesell and Jok, at least, are all in that category. The good news is that this is a season in which the combination of their experience and their opportunities should be optimal for it to happen for them--though Fran's personnel management will have a lot to do with that, especially for the frontcourt guys.

I think White will be very good but don't expect a quantum leap forward--obviously it would be great but I'm not counting on it.

If we get major contributions from a couple of the group of Oglesby, Clemmons, and Dickerson (especially Dickerson), that would bode well for having a chance to be better than last season. I like Uhl's potential as much as anyone and expect him to earn some PT this season, but anything we get from him or Ellingson would be gravy. If it comes to the point that we're having to try to rely on Dom as a primary scorer, either he's turned into a breakout star or we're probably in deep trouble--more likely the latter.

Hopefully the answers to most of these questions will be positive and if they are, it could be a great season.

 

[Ben Kenobi]

Like Fro, I am worried that White tries to become "the Guy" and becomes a black hole in the half-court offense.

 

[Shpadoinkle]

Like Fro, I am worried that White tries to become "the Guy" and becomes a black hole in the half-court offense.

This doesn't concern me. Fran's not going to try and make White a post-up 4 just to get him touches. And if White has shown anything, it's that he lets the game come to him - to a fault sometimes.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

I should be clear that I don't think White will take it upon himself to be the half court scorer, I could just see Fran trying to make some sort of concerted effort of doing something like that. I hope it doesn't happen.

 

[chaneccooms]

Like Fro, I am worried that White tries to become "the Guy" and becomes a black hole in the half-court offense.

I'm worried about any scenario that involves White becoming the focal point of the offense. He just doesn't have the ability to consistently create for himself or others. He is much better as a secondary option in the half-court. If they try to run the offense through him, there are going to be a lot of bogged down possessions.

One advantage this upcoming season is that there should be a greater diversity of offensive threats. I think Gesell, Woodbury, Jok, Uthoff and should all be better offensively and Dickerson and Uhl should be able to offer some scoring. Iowa should be generally tougher to guard with more legitimate offensive threats on the floor.

 

[douglasbader]

1. The only somewhat consistent go-to guy we had last season is gone. None of the returning players showed both the inclination to take over at crunch time and the ability to succeed at it consistently, and some showed neither. Of course, their opportunities to show what they could do were also limited by having so many key shots at winning time taken by Marble and McCabe, and most of those were missed.

I think you answer your own question here. The most overblown thing will be losing Marble and supposedly not having go to scorers. There will be multiple guys who are capable of it next year. As you point out, one of the problems was senior dominated coach backed mistakes like McCabe taking final shots.

2. There seems to be a lot of unrealized potential on the team but who knows when or if it will be realized among guys like Olaseni, Woodbury, Gesell and Jok. Will Fran finally focus on feeding the post? Can Mike start making shots when it matters? Jok is going to get the PT this season--will he turn into the reliable scoring threat we need him to be?

I wouldn't say it is "unrealized", but more that they either had others eating minutes in front of them or they are simply young. Iowa doesn't have early entry type players, so guys like Olaseni, Woodbury, Gesell, Uthoff and Jok are on a more traditional 4 year path of development. You saw this exact thing out of someone like Marble and White. You see the potential as a Freshman, puts it together more as a Sophomore and then takes a leap forward as a Junior and Senior. You will see multiple guys take the jump this year.

3. Guard play has to improve. Maybe not having Marble out there as the bailout guy will actually help. The guys who are out there will have to be thinking about getting it done themselves, and hopefully will be better able to make use of sets to do it. We really need some guys to step up on getting into the lane and creating for others when the sets don't work.

This will improve this year with roster changes and player progression.

4. Our defense was pathetic down the disastrous stretch run last season. I'm still not sure we know why that happened, but team and individual defense (including avoidance of fouls in the post) has to improve pretty much across the board. It's at least possible that some improvement in our defense (and avoidance of fouls) will be improved by the absence of a graduating senior or two.

Iowa was playing outstanding Defense through the first 20+ games and then fell apart. I don't think they suddenly forgot how to play, so you can chalk that one up to bad chemistry and an overall slump which was coach/senior related.

I can't remember going into a season in which we've had so many guys with significant talent but for whom the light hasn't really gone on yet. Olaseni, Woody, Uthoff, Gesell and Jok, at least, are all in that category. The good news is that this is a season in which the combination of their experience and their opportunities should be optimal for it to happen for them--though Fran's personnel management will have a lot to do with that, especially for the frontcourt guys.

You listed 3 Soph's, a Freshman and someone who was a pure development player that could barely tie his shoes when he got here. These guys take a leap forward in the summer between their Sophomore and Junior year. For whatever reason, they end up figuring it out and the game starts to click for them.

Look at the leap Oglesby took forward last year. He went from one of the worst 3 point shooters in the NCAA to a 40% shooter from three.

I think White will be very good but don't expect a quantum leap forward--obviously it would be great but I'm not counting on it.

He is going to be himself and slightly improved. I think having a penetrating guard is going to help him.

If we get major contributions from a couple of the group of Oglesby, Clemmons, and Dickerson (especially Dickerson), that would bode well for having a chance to be better than last season. I like Uhl's potential as much as anyone and expect him to earn some PT this season, but anything we get from him or Ellingson would be gravy. If it comes to the point that we're having to try to rely on Dom as a primary scorer, either he's turned into a breakout star or we're probably in deep trouble--more likely the latter.

I think Uhl will be a nice surprise and Ellingson has redshirt written all over him. He is hurt this summer, buried behind Oglesby, Jok, Gesell, Clemmons, Dickerson and others for playing time at the guard position. He won't play.

 

[Shpadoinkle]

I should be clear that I don't think White will take it upon himself to be the half court scorer, I could just see Fran trying to make some sort of concerted effort of doing something like that. I hope it doesn't happen.

The only way White becomes a drain on offense is if he starts chucking (and missing) a ton of threes. The kid's a smart player. He's not going to put his head down and try to take dudes one-on-one a bunch.

 

[douglasbader]

White has done nothing but shown he will take efficient shots. There is nothing that says chucker about his game over the last 3 years. He shoots almost 60% from the floor.

The thing that needs to happen again this year is Iowa should shoot a ton of free throws.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

I agree with that. That being said, he's our "best" (per the numbers) offensive player coming back that's being projected as an NBA draft pick and Fran being the players coach that he is, is more than capable of pulling some stupid crazy bullshit. I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised if it happens more often than we'd like.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

I'm critiquing Fran here, not White. Hopefully I'm being clear. My biggest concern with White is what he does on the defensive end, which is a whole lot of nothing.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

Like Fro, I am worried that White tries to become "the Guy" and becomes a black hole in the half-court offense.

I'm worried about any scenario that involves White becoming the focal point of the offense. He just doesn't have the ability to consistently create for himself or others. He is much better as a secondary option in the half-court. If they try to run the offense through him, there are going to be a lot of bogged down possessions.

One advantage this upcoming season is that there should be a greater diversity of offensive threats. I think Gesell, Woodbury, Jok, Uthoff and should all be better offensively and Dickerson and Uhl should be able to offer some scoring. Iowa should be generally tougher to guard with more legitimate offensive threats on the floor.

Good post.

 

[Ben Kenobi]

Like Fro, I am worried that White tries to become "the Guy" and becomes a black hole in the half-court offense.

I'm worried about any scenario that involves White becoming the focal point of the offense. He just doesn't have the ability to consistently create for himself or others. He is much better as a secondary option in the half-court. If they try to run the offense through him, there are going to be a lot of bogged down possessions.

Exactly my thought. White excels when he runs/floats around and the defense forgets about him, or when too many switches leave him defended by a smaller/less skilled opponent, which only happens when he's not a focal point. Regardless of what position White assumes in any given lineup, when looking for guys to run the offense through Iowa has better options than White. He's great at what he does, but just like with every other player, Iowa is better off if he's relied upon for his strengths.

You can bet your bottom dollar White will try to do too much from time to time. Sometimes it will be because Fran asks him to, as coaches do with their senior leaders, and sometimes it will be because White will insist upon it, as good players tend to do. It really just comes down to mitigating circumstances.

 

[douglasbader]

The other thing I don't think we have mentioned or talked about lately is that White is very likely to go back to starting at PF this year since Iowa struck out on JUCO players. I think that is huge. I'm guessing that the starting lineup is going to look like this....

Gesell - PG
Jok - SG
Uthoff - SF
White - PF
Woodbury - C

I went with Jok as the starter because part of me can't see the all cracker lineup and Fran has to know that Jok is going to be a huge part of what they do, but Oglesby is a Senior and played well last year and not to mention that Jok still is going to have a couple games of suspension for his DWI this summer.

Either way, i really like that lineup to start. Then you come of the bench with a shooter/scorer with either one of them, a quick PG with Dickerson, very good big man with Olaseni and athletic wing with Uhl. Throw in Clemmons somewhere and that is a damn good and deep team.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

I'll throw something out there that may be a little controversial and stir the pot a bit - I want to like Gesell more than I do. He's solid but I feel like we need someone more creative distributing. He's an average 2 stuck in a PG's body. I hope Sapp can figure it out.

 

[MikeyJoe]

I'll throw something out there that may be a little controversial and stir the pot a bit - I want to like Gesell more than I do.

Whoah, whoah, whoah. CALM DOWN there Frodo.