**2018-2019 Iowa Hawkeyes Basketball Season Thread**

[Geese]

what’s a reasonable expectation for wins now?

wish our expectations coach hadn’t quit

26-5. Anything less and Fran needs to make some coaching changes.

 

[Geese]

 

[Geese]

 

[MikeyJoe]

what’s a reasonable expectation for wins now?

wish our expectations coach hadn’t quit

Should win: Indiana, Rutgers, @Rutgers
Tossup: Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Nebrantska
Should lose: @ Wisconsin

Good that the easier tossups are on the road the the tougher tossup is at home and both Nebrantska and Ohio State have struggled lately...Nebrantska is bordering on a should win. 6-1 is doable, but I still feel like a gut punch stupid loss is coming. Anything worse than 4-3 would be awful.

 

[douglasbader]

what’s a reasonable expectation for wins now?

wish our expectations coach hadn’t quit

Should win: Indiana, Rutgers, @Rutgers
Tossup: Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Nebrantska
Should lose: @ Wisconsin

Good that the easier tossups are on the road the the tougher tossup is at home and both Nebrantska and Ohio State have struggled lately...Nebrantska is bordering on a should win. 6-1 is doable, but I still feel like a gut punch stupid loss is coming. Anything worse than 4-3 would be awful.

I think Nebrantska is way closer to a should win than @Rutgers.

 

[hawkeyealum]

Rutgers has been better than expected.

 

[MikeyJoe]

what’s a reasonable expectation for wins now?

wish our expectations coach hadn’t quit

Should win: Indiana, Rutgers, @Rutgers
Tossup: Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Nebrantska
Should lose: @ Wisconsin

Good that the easier tossups are on the road the the tougher tossup is at home and both Nebrantska and Ohio State have struggled lately...Nebrantska is bordering on a should win. 6-1 is doable, but I still feel like a gut punch stupid loss is coming. Anything worse than 4-3 would be awful.

I think Nebrantska is way closer to a should win than @Rutgers.

Kenpom still has Iowa as 2 point dogs at Nebrantska, 4 point favorites at Rutgers. Nebrantska is tanking though and they're probably still getting some benefit in his projections from their earlier season performance. By that point, the wheels could be totally off for them.

 

[MikeyJoe]

Nebrantska

 

[Berzerkenpas]

23 wins. They'll drop a derp game.

I say they win 2 in the BTT. 5 seed in the dance.

 

[Shpadoinkle]

what’s a reasonable expectation for wins now?

wish our expectations coach hadn’t quit

Should win: Indiana, Rutgers, @Rutgers
Tossup: Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Nebrantska
Should lose: @ Wisconsin

Good that the easier tossups are on the road the the tougher tossup is at home and both Nebrantska and Ohio State have struggled lately...Nebrantska is bordering on a should win. 6-1 is doable, but I still feel like a gut punch stupid loss is coming. Anything worse than 4-3 would be awful.

I'm hoping the gut punch stupid loss was foiled last night.

They still haven't had a game this year where everybody has been clicking. That's coming at some point I think.

 

[Berzerkenpas]

They still haven't had a game this year where everybody has been clicking. That's coming at some point I think.

preferably in the round of 32

 

[6deuce]

what’s a reasonable expectation for wins now?

wish our expectations coach hadn’t quit

Should win: Indiana, Rutgers, @Rutgers
Tossup: Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Nebrantska
Should lose: @ Wisconsin

Good that the easier tossups are on the road the the tougher tossup is at home and both Nebrantska and Ohio State have struggled lately...Nebrantska is bordering on a should win. 6-1 is doable, but I still feel like a gut punch stupid loss is coming. Anything worse than 4-3 would be awful.

I'm hoping the gut punch stupid loss was foiled last night.

They still haven't had a game this year where everybody has been clicking. That's coming at some point I think.

Who wasn't clicking vs Illinois? That was pretty much a perfect offensive game.

 

[Herky823]

Should win: Indiana, Rutgers, @Rutgers
Tossup: Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Nebrantska
Should lose: @ Wisconsin

Good that the easier tossups are on the road the the tougher tossup is at home and both Nebrantska and Ohio State have struggled lately...Nebrantska is bordering on a should win. 6-1 is doable, but I still feel like a gut punch stupid loss is coming. Anything worse than 4-3 would be awful.

I'm hoping the gut punch stupid loss was foiled last night.

They still haven't had a game this year where everybody has been clicking. That's coming at some point I think.

Who wasn't clicking vs Illinois? That was pretty much a perfect offensive game.

Are we really going to count games that weren't against Division 1 level opponents?

 

[Shpadoinkle]

Should win: Indiana, Rutgers, @Rutgers
Tossup: Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Nebrantska
Should lose: @ Wisconsin

Good that the easier tossups are on the road the the tougher tossup is at home and both Nebrantska and Ohio State have struggled lately...Nebrantska is bordering on a should win. 6-1 is doable, but I still feel like a gut punch stupid loss is coming. Anything worse than 4-3 would be awful.

I'm hoping the gut punch stupid loss was foiled last night.

They still haven't had a game this year where everybody has been clicking. That's coming at some point I think.

Who wasn't clicking vs Illinois? That was pretty much a perfect offensive game.

Cook only had 7 in that one and bohannon only had 10.

 

[6deuce]

I'm hoping the gut punch stupid loss was foiled last night.

They still haven't had a game this year where everybody has been clicking. That's coming at some point I think.

Who wasn't clicking vs Illinois? That was pretty much a perfect offensive game.

Are we really going to count games that weren't against Division 1 level opponents?

I wouldn't want to play them at Illinois right now or in the BTT considering how historically awesome Iowa has been in the BTT.

 

[Herky823]

-1 spot in the AP poll, down to 21

https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll/2019/15

 

[Mo T]

-1 spot in the AP poll, down to 21

https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll/2019/15

It doesn't matter, but that's a joke

 

[6deuce]

I'm hoping the gut punch stupid loss was foiled last night.

They still haven't had a game this year where everybody has been clicking. That's coming at some point I think.

Who wasn't clicking vs Illinois? That was pretty much a perfect offensive game.

Cook only had 7 in that one and bohannon only had 10.

Big fucking deal. That doesn't mean they weren't clicking. Wasn't bohannon 3-4 for 3 in that game? They also won by 24 and fucked around for a lot of the 2nd half.

 

[douglasbader]

Should win: Indiana, Rutgers, @Rutgers
Tossup: Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Nebrantska
Should lose: @ Wisconsin

Good that the easier tossups are on the road the the tougher tossup is at home and both Nebrantska and Ohio State have struggled lately...Nebrantska is bordering on a should win. 6-1 is doable, but I still feel like a gut punch stupid loss is coming. Anything worse than 4-3 would be awful.

I think Nebrantska is way closer to a should win than @Rutgers.

Kenpom still has Iowa as 2 point dogs at Nebrantska, 4 point favorites at Rutgers. Nebrantska is tanking though and they're probably still getting some benefit in his projections from their earlier season performance. By that point, the wheels could be totally off for them.

This is where I think KenPom isn't nearly as useful when it comes to individual games because it is ranking teams and giving spreads based on the entire season.

As you pointed out, Nebrantska is getting credit for a great early part of the season, but the reality now is they are injured and have tanked almost completely. They aren't even close to the #36 team in the country in individual game situations at this point in the season.

Same thing on Rutgers, they are getting dinged a bit for their early part of the season but are much better lately.

If given 10 options top play somewhere at this point, I would pick Nebrantska every single time. That doesn't mean Iowa is a lock to win as anything fluky can happen and especially on Senior Day, but that team truly can't score.

 

[Berzerkenpas]

GFY AP

 

[Shpadoinkle]

Who wasn't clicking vs Illinois? That was pretty much a perfect offensive game.

Cook only had 7 in that one and bohannon only had 10.

Big fucking deal. That doesn't mean they weren't clicking. Wasn't bohannon 3-4 for 3 in that game? They also won by 24 and fucked around for a lot of the 2nd half.

OK. You win.

 

[Wanderer]

How does KenPom have our out of conference strength of schedule at 336 or almost the worst in the country? Only 2 P5 teams below us. I know some of them aren’t great, but we played 4 P5 teams in an 11-game non- conference schedule (all top 100), along with UNI, who, despite having a bad year, would play with half the teams in the country.

Just doesn’t seem right and is killing our rating in computer-based models.

 

[MikeyJoe]

How does KenPom have our out of conference strength of schedule at 336 or almost the worst in the country? Only 2 P5 teams below us. I know some of them aren’t great, but we played 4 P5 teams in an 11-game non- conference schedule (all top 100), along with UNI, who, despite having a bad year, would play with half the teams in the country.

Just doesn’t seem right and is killing our rating in computer-based models.

Because our cupcake games are against really fucking awful cupcakes.

 

[MikeyJoe]

I think Nebrantska is way closer to a should win than @Rutgers.

Kenpom still has Iowa as 2 point dogs at Nebrantska, 4 point favorites at Rutgers. Nebrantska is tanking though and they're probably still getting some benefit in his projections from their earlier season performance. By that point, the wheels could be totally off for them.

This is where I think KenPom isn't nearly as useful when it comes to individual games because it is ranking teams and giving spreads based on the entire season.

As you pointed out, Nebrantska is getting credit for a great early part of the season, but the reality now is they are injured and have tanked almost completely. They aren't even close to the #36 team in the country in individual game situations at this point in the season.

Same thing on Rutgers, they are getting dinged a bit for their early part of the season but are much better lately.

If given 10 options top play somewhere at this point, I would pick Nebrantska every single time. That doesn't mean Iowa is a lock to win as anything fluky can happen and especially on Senior Day, but that team truly can't score.

You're overstating it though - he does factor recency in a little. And his projections are usually pretty spot on with the Vegas lines, and obviously Vegas only cares about individual games.

 

[HiawathaHawk]

How does KenPom have our out of conference strength of schedule at 336 or almost the worst in the country? Only 2 P5 teams below us. I know some of them aren’t great, but we played 4 P5 teams in an 11-game non- conference schedule (all top 100), along with UNI, who, despite having a bad year, would play with half the teams in the country.

Just doesn’t seem right and is killing our rating in computer-based models.

We played # 15 at home, 55, 77 at home, 84, 214, 217, 244, 285, 316, 334 and 342.

The bad teams were really, really bad. UNI is like 70 spots lower than any season in the last 19 years.

 

[Wanderer]

How does KenPom have our out of conference strength of schedule at 336 or almost the worst in the country? Only 2 P5 teams below us. I know some of them aren’t great, but we played 4 P5 teams in an 11-game non- conference schedule (all top 100), along with UNI, who, despite having a bad year, would play with half the teams in the country.

Just doesn’t seem right and is killing our rating in computer-based models.

Because our cupcake games are against really fucking awful cupcakes.

I guess that's it. We've had the issue in other years. Tough to know how shitty teams are going to be and I would maintain that you're pretty bad at #180 or #300 and that teams shouldn't get penalized for that difference.

 

[MikeyJoe]

How does KenPom have our out of conference strength of schedule at 336 or almost the worst in the country? Only 2 P5 teams below us. I know some of them aren’t great, but we played 4 P5 teams in an 11-game non- conference schedule (all top 100), along with UNI, who, despite having a bad year, would play with half the teams in the country.

Just doesn’t seem right and is killing our rating in computer-based models.

Because our cupcake games are against really fucking awful cupcakes.

I guess that's it. We've had the issue in other years. Tough to know how shitty teams are going to be and I would maintain that you're pretty bad at #180 or #300 and that teams shouldn't get penalized for that difference.

There's some variability, but it's not that tough if you know what you're doing to schedule better. At this point, Fran has clearly indicated that he doesn't care about SOS and he'd rather schedule as shitty of teams as possible because he values the tune up more.

 

[Bob]

Yeah we have not really made an effort to game the computer rankings by scheduling cupcakes more in the 100-200 range rather than the 300s. It's kind of annoying I guess but shouldn't be a huge deal if we do what we should.

We've been bouncing around the lower part of the top 25 on KenPom for most of the season which feels about right and isn't terribly far off our position in the human polls. It doesn't hate us at all.

 

[Match34]

At this point, Fran has clearly indicated that he doesn't care about SOS and he'd rather schedule as shitty of teams as possible because he values the tune up more.

It's not worth winning if you can't win big!

 

[CamelTones]

This Rutgers game would scare me a lot more if it was on Wednesday or something after a win like last night. Now they have almost a week to get over it. That was my biggest worry going into last nights game was the emotional high of the Indiana game and the somewhat quick turn around.

Next week is going to be tough though. 3 games in 7 days. Indiana could be playing for a bid and Maryland seems like the worst match up for Iowa in the conference with their athleticism.

 

[Geese]

How in the fuck did we move down 1 in the AP

 

[Kamala]

How in the fuck did we move down 1 in the AP

The votes

 

[Geese]

Up to 17 in coaches

 

[Geese]

How in the fuck did we move down 1 in the AP

The votes

Oohhhhhhh

 

[Dr. Zaius]

Up to 15 in the CBS 25 and 1

 

[Berzerkenpas]

they do their homework

 

[Thomas Wolsey]

Up to 15 in the CBS 25 and 1

Gary Parrish does his homework

 

[Thomas Wolsey]

Up to 15 in the CBS 25 and 1

Gary Parrish does his homework

gfy

 

[Berzerkenpas]

Up to 15 in the CBS 25 and 1

Gary Parrish does his homework

gfy

I see the matter against me now it is framed

 

[douglasbader]

How does KenPom have our out of conference strength of schedule at 336 or almost the worst in the country? Only 2 P5 teams below us. I know some of them aren’t great, but we played 4 P5 teams in an 11-game non- conference schedule (all top 100), along with UNI, who, despite having a bad year, would play with half the teams in the country.

Just doesn’t seem right and is killing our rating in computer-based models.

We played # 15 at home, 55, 77 at home, 84, 214, 217, 244, 285, 316, 334 and 342.

The bad teams were really, really bad. UNI is like 70 spots lower than any season in the last 19 years.

This is also where KenPom and NET should make anything 200 and below the same rating formula. You're talking about a 15 point win vs. a 30 point win.

Too much weight given to if someone is #200 or #325

 

[HiawathaHawk]

To be clear, it isn't like RPI where our primary ranking is killed due to cupcakes. KenPom doesn't penalize you for playing bad teams, you just need to pound them like you should.

Our overall SOS on his site will end up top 25. It's just the non-confidence SOS listed that's horrible.

 

[eclone]

How does KenPom have our out of conference strength of schedule at 336 or almost the worst in the country? Only 2 P5 teams below us. I know some of them aren’t great, but we played 4 P5 teams in an 11-game non- conference schedule (all top 100), along with UNI, who, despite having a bad year, would play with half the teams in the country.

Just doesn’t seem right and is killing our rating in computer-based models.

We played # 15 at home, 55, 77 at home, 84, 214, 217, 244, 285, 316, 334 and 342.

The bad teams were really, really bad. UNI is like 70 spots lower than any season in the last 19 years.

This is also where KenPom and NET should make anything 200 and below the same rating formula. You're talking about a 15 point win vs. a 30 point win.

Too much weight given to if someone is #200 or #325

Agreed. The bottom 150 or so teams should be the same, and come with a severe penalty for losing to them.

 

[Thomas Wolsey]

We played # 15 at home, 55, 77 at home, 84, 214, 217, 244, 285, 316, 334 and 342.

The bad teams were really, really bad. UNI is like 70 spots lower than any season in the last 19 years.

This is also where KenPom and NET should make anything 200 and below the same rating formula. You're talking about a 15 point win vs. a 30 point win.

Too much weight given to if someone is #200 or #325

Agreed. The bottom 150 or so teams should be the same, and come with a severe penalty for losing to them.

If the NET limits the value of blowouts, there should be a SOS limit too (maybe they do). Kenpom is fine to me.

 

[MikeyJoe]

To be clear, it isn't like RPI where our primary ranking is killed due to cupcakes. KenPom doesn't penalize you for playing bad teams, you just need to pound them like you should.

Our overall SOS on his site will end up top 25. It's just the non-confidence SOS listed that's horrible.

Correct - the question was why is our SOS so bad. But the benefit to Kenpom is that if you kill your cupcakes your SOS won't hurt you.

 

[HiawathaHawk]

This is also where KenPom and NET should make anything 200 and below the same rating formula. You're talking about a 15 point win vs. a 30 point win.

Too much weight given to if someone is #200 or #325

Agreed. The bottom 150 or so teams should be the same, and come with a severe penalty for losing to them.

If the NET limits the value of blowouts, there should be a SOS limit too (maybe they do). Kenpom is fine to me.

It does but it doesn't. The NET caps margin of victory at 10 but it also incorporates efficiency margins (like KenPom) which reward you for blowouts.

They just need to use common sense. There was a reference with their Saturday top 16 to non-conference SOS and a couple analysts thought they may have used that with a couple of their picks. They want to reward NCSOS to encourage good games in November and December. But if you're a team like Iowa in the Big Ten and you have 20 games in the #1 league plus ISU and your exempt, it doesn't make sense to keep testing yourself in the 6 remaining games. So don't compare apples to oranges with a team that plays 16 league games or is in a weaker league. Overall SOS for Iowa will still be very high.

Also UNI can go to hell for being so bad. Drake is 80 spots higher. The one year it would have been beneficial to have played them instead.

 

[Bob]

The Bryant game probably did not do them a lot of favors but otherwise they hammered everyone else they should have.

 

[L. Wade Childress]

KenPom doesn’t “reward you” for blowouts. It’s common sense that if you blow someone out you are probably playing efficient ball at least at one end.

 

[Nobody]

 

[nolookpass]

 

[MikeyJoe]

KenPom doesn’t “reward you” for blowouts. It’s common sense that if you blow someone out you are probably playing efficient ball at least at one end.

Correct. It depends on what you want your ranking formula or model to do. He wrote an article about this. They talk about limiting the impact of blowouts in the NET. Which in some fashion I get, because I guess from a pure sportsmanship perspective you don't want people running up scores just to improve their chances of getting in the tournament.

But if you're trying to build a predictive model, why would you limit the impact of blowouts? Blowing out a team is hard. Blowing out a team indicates that you're probably a good team.