**2018-2019 Iowa Hawkeyes Basketball Season Thread**

Fletch

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KenPom doesn’t “reward you” for blowouts. It’s common sense that if you blow someone out you are probably playing efficient ball at least at one end.
Correct. It depends on what you want your ranking formula or model to do. He wrote an article about this. They talk about limiting the impact of blowouts in the NET. Which in some fashion I get, because I guess from a pure sportsmanship perspective you don't want people running up scores just to improve their chances of getting in the tournament.

But if you're trying to build a predictive model, why would you limit the impact of blowouts? Blowing out a team is hard. Blowing out a team indicates that you're probably a good team.
As they move more towards predictive modeling, it’ll be interesting to see if the number of upsets in the tournament goes down over time. Upsets are part of the charm, so hopefully they aren’t impacted too much.
 

Bovert

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I'm just sayin that if I didn't already know that Nobody was a chick, that awful post would've made me realize that she was a chick (or like Valp0)
 

douglasbader

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If Iowa wins on Saturday, they are very likely in a 3 way tie for 4th place as Wisconsin lost tonight and Maryland has to play @ Michigan on Saturday.

Wisconsin has a really easy schedule the rest of the way, but it is potentially setting up as that game @ Wisconsin on March 7th could be for a double bye.

Lot to happen until then, but a ton to play for at this point.
 

26.2

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If Iowa wins on Saturday, they are very likely in a 3 way tie for 4th place as Wisconsin lost tonight and Maryland has to play @ Michigan on Saturday.

Wisconsin has a really easy schedule the rest of the way, but it is potentially setting up as that game @ Wisconsin on March 7th could be for a double bye.

Lot to happen until then, but a ton to play for at this point.
I'm not getting my hopes up for a 4 seed. I would bet on a 6 in the big 10 tourney.
 

CamelTones

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Only team in the bottom half of the conference I’d want to avoid in the BTT is Illinois so I want whatever seed avoids them.
 

douglasbader

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Fran has gone from Iowa Fan wanting to fire him after the Purdue game to legit coach of the year candidate in the Big Ten.
 

HiawathaHawk

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4 seed will be tough. Likely requires getting to at least 13-7 and beating both of them for tiebreakers when you look at their schedules.
 

douglasbader

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Iowa up to #7 in the country in offense but down to #115 in defense.
 

Mo T

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Fran has gone from Iowa Fan wanting to fire him after the Purdue game to legit coach of the year candidate in the Big Ten.
That doesn't sound like Iowa fan at all. At least their football fans aren't as stupid.
 

Bob

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Iowa up to #7 in the country in offense but down to #115 in defense.
I dunno how to find week by week numbers but they finished 19th in offense and 242nd in defense last year so 115th is genuinely a big step up
 

Mo T

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Iowa's NET ranking keeps slipping. It will be interesting to see how the committee uses them with their seedings.
 

Bob

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They still have some potential Q1 wins left with Maryland, @OSU, @Nebrantska, and @Wisconsin. They're still in good position to get a 5 seed.
 

douglasbader

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Iowa's NET ranking keeps slipping. It will be interesting to see how the committee uses them with their seedings.
It hasn't really slipped much, they are still #25 in KenPom and NET.

The biggest thing will be if the committee simply slots teams in or if they use it as more of a guideline. For example, if the tournament was being selected today I have a hard time believing that the committee would give Iowa (19-5) and Marquette (20-4) a 7 seed and give Wisconsin and Louisville a 3 seed. Are they going to give 14-11 Texas a 7 seed? That is what the NET says, but can't see that happening.

I think Iowa is right on the 5/6 seed line as of today. They have a realistic opportunity to get up to a 4 seed if things go right.
 

MikeyJoe

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Iowa's NET ranking keeps slipping. It will be interesting to see how the committee uses them with their seedings.
It hasn't really slipped much, they are still #25 in KenPom and NET.

The biggest thing will be if the committee simply slots teams in or if they use it as more of a guideline. For example, if the tournament was being selected today I have a hard time believing that the committee would give Iowa (19-5) and Marquette (20-4) a 7 seed and give Wisconsin and Louisville a 3 seed. Are they going to give 14-11 Texas a 7 seed? That is what the NET says, but can't see that happening.

I think Iowa is right on the 5/6 seed line as of today. They have a realistic opportunity to get up to a 4 seed if things go right.
Is NET supposed to be a predictive rating or a resume rating? Because if it's a resume rating and they don't use it to seed, then even if it's a better system it's just as pointless as RPI.
 

MikeyJoe

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I answered my own question. It's a predictive model. In that case, yes, I hope they don't use it literally for seedings.

The NCAA Evaluation Tool, which will be known as the NET, relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. To make sense of team performance data, late-season games (including from the NCAA tournament) were used as test sets to develop a ranking model leveraging machine learning techniques. The model, which used team performance data to predict the outcome of games in test sets, was optimized until it was as accurate as possible. The resulting model is the one that will be used as the NET going forward.
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/division-i-men-s-basketball-committee-adopts-new-ranking-system

I still think the quadrant system is stupid.
 

douglasbader

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Iowa's NET ranking keeps slipping. It will be interesting to see how the committee uses them with their seedings.
It hasn't really slipped much, they are still #25 in KenPom and NET.
They're 29th in NET today.
It sounds like they are still going to use some measure of "eye test" and other factors for seeding, so as long as the NET rating isn't way far off I think Iowa is going to be fine for a decent seed.
 

Mo T

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I think Iowa is right on the 5/6 seed line as of today. They have a realistic opportunity to get up to a 4 seed if things go right.
I think a 7-0 finish gets them a 3 seed
6-1 4 seed
5-2 5 seed
4-3 7 seed
 

6deuce

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I'm kidding, but if they win out that would be what a 12 game win streak with a win over probably Michigan or MSU? Would that get them to a 2 seed?

@BBK get the fuck in here!
 

douglasbader

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I'm kidding, but if they win out that would be what a 12 game win streak with a win over probably Michigan or MSU? Would that get them to a 2 seed?

@BBK get the fuck in here!
2 seed.
 

BBK

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I'm kidding, but if they win out that would be what a 12 game win streak with a win over probably Michigan or MSU? Would that get them to a 2 seed?

@BBK get the fuck in here!
Yes, winning out would def be a 2 seed, fuck, maybe a 1. That aint happenin tho homes.
 

douglasbader

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BBK

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I think a 7-0 finish gets them a 3 seed
6-1 4 seed
5-2 5 seed
4-3 7 seed
I think 6-1 and 1 win in the BTT gets them a 3.
More likely a 4 seed but that would be at least a possibility.
Looking at the four 3 seeds from just last year, the above finish (6-1 with 1 BTT win) would give them a higher winning percentage (78.8%) than the combined winning percentage of four 3 seeds from last year (78.6%).

3 seed, mark it down!
 

Match34

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It is nice that bohannon made the shot Sunday so people are asking how many games Iowa has to win to be a 4 seed instead of how many games Iowa has to win to make the tournament.
 

Match34

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I think 6-1 and 1 win in the BTT gets them a 3.
More likely a 4 seed but that would be at least a possibility.
Looking at the four 3 seeds from just last year, the above finish (6-1 with 1 BTT win) would give them a higher winning percentage (78.8%) than the combined winning percentage of four 3 seeds from last year (78.6%).

3 seed, mark it down!
Scott Steiner: You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Samoa Joe and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!

So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.
 

douglasbader

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It is nice that bohannon made the shot Sunday so people are asking how many games Iowa has to win to be a 4 seed instead of how many games Iowa has to win to make the tournament.
This is very, very true.
 

MikeyJoe

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I still think the quadrant system is stupid.
Why? It's just a way to sort wins/losses and an improvement over top 50 or top 100 with no distinction on site.
Because if your ranking formula takes the relative difficulty of home, neutral, and road games into account, there's no need to double down and re-emphasize that portion of the ranking when using it to make a decision.
 

Mustangs989

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Probably a dumb question but are the seeds that Des Moines hosts predetermined already? I haven't looked at a ton of brackets but all the ones I've seen have Des Moines with 2 of the 2/15 and 7/10 games.
 
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I think 6-1 and 1 win in the BTT gets them a 3.
More likely a 4 seed but that would be at least a possibility.
Looking at the four 3 seeds from just last year, the above finish (6-1 with 1 BTT win) would give them a higher winning percentage (78.8%) than the combined winning percentage of four 3 seeds from last year (78.6%).

3 seed, mark it down!
Does it even matter?
 

wondergrape

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More likely a 4 seed but that would be at least a possibility.
Looking at the four 3 seeds from just last year, the above finish (6-1 with 1 BTT win) would give them a higher winning percentage (78.8%) than the combined winning percentage of four 3 seeds from last year (78.6%).

3 seed, mark it down!
Does it even matter?
what the fuck is wrong with your soul?

Yes. It matters a tremendous amount and its one of about a dozen or so actual reasons to live.
 

Mo T

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Probably a dumb question but are the seeds that Des Moines hosts predetermined already? I haven't looked at a ton of brackets but all the ones I've seen have Des Moines with 2 of the 2/15 and 7/10 games.
Lunardi had Iowa as a 6 in Des Moines I thought at one point.
 
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Looking at the four 3 seeds from just last year, the above finish (6-1 with 1 BTT win) would give them a higher winning percentage (78.8%) than the combined winning percentage of four 3 seeds from last year (78.6%).

3 seed, mark it down!
Does it even matter?
what the fuck is wrong with your soul?

Yes. It matters a tremendous amount and its one of about a dozen or so actual reasons to live.
Lol. Ya... no
 

JD720

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Probably a dumb question but are the seeds that Des Moines hosts predetermined already? I haven't looked at a ton of brackets but all the ones I've seen have Des Moines with 2 of the 2/15 and 7/10 games.
No, the top 4 seeds in each region are ranked 1-16 and get placed to the closest site in that order. If Iowa was a 1 seed (hypothetically), they would be in Des Moines. If Iowa ends up a 3 or 4, they could be in Des Moines if there is a spot left, but we would be competing with schools like Michigan, MSU, Marquette, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, etc. We'd have to hope we are ahead of them in the rankings or they get placed elsewhere.
 

JD720

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Probably a dumb question but are the seeds that Des Moines hosts predetermined already? I haven't looked at a ton of brackets but all the ones I've seen have Des Moines with 2 of the 2/15 and 7/10 games.
Lunardi had Iowa as a 6 in Des Moines I thought at one point.
I wouldn't put much stock into the locations on Lunardi's brackets outside of the top 4 seeds. I doubt the committee would make the 3 seed play Iowa in Des Moines in the second round. They did it to Duke a couple of years ago (they were a 2 and played 7 seed South Carolina in South Carolina), but that seems to be the exception, not the rule.
 

Mo T

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I was just answering the question as to whether seeds are locked into locations. Based on the various brackets I've seen, there has been a 6 in Des Moines and a 7 in Des Moines.

So, in other words, not much of an answer.
 

L. Wade Childress

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Not only are the top four seeds in each region given geographical preference, but just as important they will not put them at a geographical disadvantage either. That said there are a finite number of combinations so it’s possible that a lower seed like iowa ends up in Des Moines if they run out of space elsewhere. Remember that the four seeds (1,16,8,9 or 3,14,6,11) all have to be in the same pod and any one pod can have the two sets of the same seeds since sites no longer feed regionals.
 

HiawathaHawk

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I still think the quadrant system is stupid.
Why? It's just a way to sort wins/losses and an improvement over top 50 or top 100 with no distinction on site.
Because if your ranking formula takes the relative difficulty of home, neutral, and road games into account, there's no need to double down and re-emphasize that portion of the ranking when using it to make a decision.
I might not be following your argument but I think we're talking about two different applications. The Quads are just a sorting tool for resume. Iowa has a better resume than some teams ranked ahead of them in the NET.
 

ivan_drago

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Not only are the top four seeds in each region given geographical preference, but just as important they will not put them at a geographical disadvantage either. That said there are a finite number of combinations so it’s possible that a lower seed like iowa ends up in Des Moines if they run out of space elsewhere. Remember that the four seeds (1,16,8,9 or 3,14,6,11) all have to be in the same pod and any one pod can have the two sets of the same seeds since sites no longer feed regionals.
Duke had to play in South Carolina against South Carolina as a 2 seed in 2017, so it may be a guideline, but it surely isn't a rule.
 

L. Wade Childress

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Not only are the top four seeds in each region given geographical preference, but just as important they will not put them at a geographical disadvantage either. That said there are a finite number of combinations so it’s possible that a lower seed like iowa ends up in Des Moines if they run out of space elsewhere. Remember that the four seeds (1,16,8,9 or 3,14,6,11) all have to be in the same pod and any one pod can have the two sets of the same seeds since sites no longer feed regionals.
Duke had to play in South Carolina against South Carolina as a 2 seed in 2017, so it may be a guideline, but it surely isn't a rule.
The horror!
 

ivan_drago

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Not only are the top four seeds in each region given geographical preference, but just as important they will not put them at a geographical disadvantage either. That said there are a finite number of combinations so it’s possible that a lower seed like iowa ends up in Des Moines if they run out of space elsewhere. Remember that the four seeds (1,16,8,9 or 3,14,6,11) all have to be in the same pod and any one pod can have the two sets of the same seeds since sites no longer feed regionals.
Duke had to play in South Carolina against South Carolina as a 2 seed in 2017, so it may be a guideline, but it surely isn't a rule.
The horror!
Uh, ok?
 
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