***Official Iowa vs Minnesota Gophers basketball thread Sunday Feb 6 3:30 PM BTN***

[L. Wade Childress]

The two foul rule is a perfect counter to your stupid point, actually. Fran has a stricter two foul rule than basically every other coach in the country. There are ~300 other Division 1 coaches who would disagree with Fran on the extent to which he benches his best players. So there are two possibilities: 1) Iowa has the smartest, best coach in the country, or 2) "Fran is a coach and knows more than you" is an illogical blanket statement used in defense of particular decisions.

i think there’s an argument for #1 if you compare results to recruiting.

yesterday Michigan got roughly one million rebounds yesterday when Lisa left monika in with 3 fouls. There’s a reason Fran sits guys with 2 fouls. It’s not because he’s an idiot.

i would also say that arguing this on a relative basis is stupid. There is probably a quantifiable amount or percent of minutes, on an absolute basis, that Fran should play his guys with two fouls in the first half based on his style. Comparing him in relative terms to other coaches is stupid.

 

[Hawkstrat]

FFS

 

[WCFHawkeye]

Not a bad read, and doesn't really say which is right, but it is interesting.

Foul Trouble & The "Auto-Bench"

The math and nuance behind benching a player in foul trouble.

hoopvision.substack.com

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

The two foul rule is a perfect counter to your stupid point, actually. Fran has a stricter two foul rule than basically every other coach in the country. There are ~300 other Division 1 coaches who would disagree with Fran on the extent to which he benches his best players. So there are two possibilities: 1) Iowa has the smartest, best coach in the country, or 2) "Fran is a coach and knows more than you" is an illogical blanket statement used in defense of particular decisions.

Hey, at least somebody is addressing one of these issues Fran just doesn't understand. Great. Now where's your evidence that roughly 85% of D1 coaches disagree with Fran's 2 foul rule? And for the record I'm not sure where I stand on it.

 

[AZmessDAWG]

I just tell our kids to “BE SMART!” and point to my head when they pick up their 2nd foul. Works every time.

 

[MikeyJoe]

Hey, at least somebody is addressing one of these issues Fran just doesn't understand. Great. Now where's your evidence that roughly 85% of D1 coaches disagree with Fran's 2 foul rule? And for the record I'm not sure where I stand on it.

I said it in the post. Iowa's 2 foul participation rate consistently ranks in the 300s.

 

[Hawk_Kegmasters]

Try to keep up, Fritz. JFC.

 

[MikeyJoe]

I just actually looked it up and he's averaged 316th in the country in his time at Iowa in terms of two foul participation rate. Kenpom didn't start tracking it until 2010, but his last year at Sienna he was 342nd in the country. So yeah.

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

How does confidence in playing bench players factor in? Or does the answer automatically mean Fran also doesn't understand rotations? Is there also data on game outcomes?

 

[MikeyJoe]

It's okay to just say "Huh I didn't know that".

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

I can admit it. Can you admit it's a meaningless metric absent some damning evidence of outcome differences?

And what about all these other things Fran doesn't understand?

 

[L. Wade Childress]

Hey, at least somebody is addressing one of these issues Fran just doesn't understand. Great. Now where's your evidence that roughly 85% of D1 coaches disagree with Fran's 2 foul rule? And for the record I'm not sure where I stand on it.

100% of other college coaches could disagree with Fran’s philosophy, and 30 of them would still be ranked number 321 through 350.

 

[MikeyJoe]

I can admit it. Can you admit it's a meaningless metric absent some damning evidence of outcome differences?

And what about all these other things Fran doesn't understand?

You're not following, which is confusing because it was your argument. The point here was not to go down a specific rabbit hole about the efficacy of the two foul rule strategy. Your silly argument was that Frodo (and others) couldn't possibly be right in a disagreement with Fran because as a D1 basketball coach he clearly has more knowledge and experience than they. My simple counter argument is that Fran differs from other D1 basketball coaches on one of the specific things Frodo was complaining about, therefore your appeal to authority is a poor argument.

 

[WCFHawkeye]

I just actually looked it up and he's averaged 316th in the country in his time at Iowa in terms of two foul participation rate. Kenpom didn't start tracking it until 2010, but his last year at Sienna he was 342nd in the country. So yeah.

I am surprised there are that many below him, I don't recall anyone getting minutes with 2 fouls. Those bottom 30 or so all must be fractions of a minute in total.

 

[L. Wade Childress]

Mikey, champion of rational thought and statistics, is absolutely certain that all other college coaches are playing their guys the exact appropriate amount or minutes when they have 2 fouls in the first half. Therefore it’s logical to assess Fran on a relative basis vs other coaches.

because it feels like it, I guess.

 

[MikeyJoe]

I am surprised there are that many below him, I don't recall anyone getting minutes with 2 fouls. Those bottom 30 or so all must be fractions of a minute in total.

Oddly, 2015 and 2018 are outliers (239th and 223rd). Outside of those two years, he averages 333rd. Last year he was 344th with players with two fouls playing 1.6% of available minutes.

 

[MikeyJoe]

Mikey, champion of rational thought and statistics, is absolutely certain that all other college coaches are playing their guys the exact appropriate amount or minutes when they have 2 fouls in the first half. Therefore it’s logical to assess Fran on a relative basis vs other coaches.

because it feels like it, I guess.

 

[MikeyJoe]

Holy shit lol.

 

[Debit One]

Mikey is our Ross Douthat.

It is with great peril that one takes the other side of an argument with him.

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

You're not following, which is confusing because it was your argument. The point here was not to go down a specific rabbit hole about the efficacy of the two foul rule strategy. Your silly argument was that Frodo (and others) couldn't possibly be right in a disagreement with Fran because as a D1 basketball coach he clearly has more knowledge and experience than they. My simple counter argument is that Fran differs from other D1 basketball coaches on one of the specific things Frodo was complaining about, therefore your appeal to authority is a poor argument.

LOL that my "appeal to authority" is a poor argument because Fran goes against the grain on something that has zero statistical significance.

 

[Hawkstrat]

LOL that my "appeal to authority" is a poor argument because Fran goes against the grain on something that has zero statistical significance.

Show your work.

 

[TurdBurgler]

There is the mental impact of the 2 foul rule too that contributes to our typically pudding soft defense. Not only the 2 foul rule but Frans teams have been on the extreme low end of total team fouls too.

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

Show your work.

No offense, but you clearly don't understand how statistics work. The onus is on those proposing that two variables are correlated, not on those rejecting the claim that two variables are correlated.

Maybe there is a correlation, I don't know. But usually if the halo groupthink has convinced itself of something, the smart money is on the other side.

 

[TurdBurgler]

You didn't say you didn't know, you said zero statistical significance.

Reality is Keegan is far and away our best player and we have had 2 close losses where his minutes were limited because of this stupid rule.

 

[Hawkstrat]

No offense, but you clearly don't understand how statistics work. The onus is on those proposing that two variables are correlated, not on those rejecting the claim that two variables are correlated.

Maybe there is a correlation, I don't know. But usually if the halo groupthink has convinced itself of something, the smart money is on the other side.

Halo, and nearly every other coach.

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

Halo, and nearly every other coach.

you should keep talking about evidence/data/numbers.......you seem real smart that way

 

[AZmessDAWG]

Gettin chippy in here.

 

[Hawkstrat]

you should keep talking about evidence/data/numbers.......you seem real smart that way

I'm sure it will have little impact on your confidence, but I'm not the one over my skies here.

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

I'm sure it will have little impact on your confidence, but I'm not the one over my skies here.

You're the one in ski school doing whatever the beginner in front of you is doing because you have the safety of the group. I'm the one doing diamond moguls (like I do in real life too!).

 

[Brad Wesley]

 

[L. Wade Childress]

You didn't say you didn't know, you said zero statistical significance.

Reality is Keegan is far and away our best player and we have had 2 close losses where his minutes were limited because of this stupid rule.

Is keegan our best player if he lets the other team score while trying to avoid a 3rd foul? Maybe, which is why I think Fran needs to be flexible, but this isn’t cut and dry.

By the way, I think Fran’s sweet spot in terms of absolute two-foul participation is higher than where he is now. But I have nothing to prove that, and a peer ranking is stupid.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

Fritz knows basketball, guys. He played at a high level in high school.

 

[Hawk&Balls]

Is keegan our best player if he lets the other team score while trying to avoid a 3rd foul? Maybe, which is why I think Fran needs to be flexible, but this isn’t cut and dry.

By the way, I think Fran’s sweet spot in terms of absolute two-foul participation is higher than where he is now. But I have nothing to prove that, and a peer ranking is stupid.

Keegan's defense with two fouls 2 minutes in to the game is better than bohannon ever.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

Keegan's defense with two fouls 2 minutes in to the game is better than bohannon ever.

And pretty much anyone else on the team outside of Toussaint.

 

[TurdBurgler]

The strict 2 foul rule just makes players avoid fouls after the 1st and the 2nd. It just doesn't apply well to this team at all. Murray has an identical twin to take his place. Rebracca kinda sucks so who cares if he fouls out. The team plays 10-11 deep consistently.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

I'm just not sure anyone on halo understands the difficult concepts that fritz is presenting here. Things like the other team has to guard bohannon.

 

[Brad Wesley]

I’ve taken into consideration that bohannon sucks this year.

 

[KitKatApples]

Fritz knows basketball, guys. He played at a high level in high school.

Like.......Varsity?

 

[Shawneemicks]

Lol. Perfect

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

Like.......Varsity?

I'd have to confirm but yeah, I think so.

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

Fritz knows basketball, guys. He played at a high level in high school.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you the guy who chooses to live in Alabama?

 

[KitKatApples]

That's awfully impressive, is he old enough to have perhaps been honorable mention on an All-County team also?

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

Like.......Varsity?

Yes, two-time all conference in a historically tough conference!

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you the guy who chooses to live in Alabama?

Look over there! I actually live in Mississippi. Update your spreadsheet accordingly.

 

[KitKatApples]

Look over there! I actually live in Mississippi. Update your spreadsheet accordingly.

Do they have Varsity basketball there?

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

Do they have Varsity basketball there?

You know what, they do believe it or not. Not sure it can compete at the levels fritz was playing against however.

 

[Fritz Fequiere]

Look over there! I actually live in Mississippi. Update your spreadsheet accordingly.

My spreadsheet has a column named "shithole USA" so no changes will be needed.

 

[FrodoTBaggin]

My spreadsheet has a column named "shithole USA" so no changes will be needed.

That's racist, you racist asshole. Unreal.

 

[Hawk_Kegmasters]

My spreadsheet has a column named "shithole USA" so no changes will be needed.

Fritz, you’re missing some data on your spreadsheet that tells why your 2-time honorable mention all conference at a historically tough 1A conference pales in comparison to Frodo’s basketball experience.

 

[Hawkstrat]

Fritz is a troll, but the psuedo elitism that has blossomed on Halo has made the main board unreadable. Guys like FaB turning into a thought leader might be the worst thing to happen to this great country since 9/11.