Alright, I've been a bit hysterical in my criticism of Groce, so lest anyone think I've gone completely mental, let me more eloquently state why I believe he is poorly qualified for this job.
1. There is a misconception that Ohio is a difficult place to win. That's not the case, they are a historically good MAC program, and Groce was handed a fine (not great, but above .500) program from his predecessor Tim O'Shea, who left of his own accord to coach closer to his native New England at Bryant University. The program had had four straight winning records in conference and overall when Groce took over. There was no "rebuilding" period.
2. The head coaching track record is simply middling. The 34-30 number in the MAC has been repeated ad-nauseam, but you have to put that into context. Find other major-conference coaches who were mid-major guys first. Bruce Weber was 62-28 at SIU, Fran McCaffery was 68-22 at Siena, Thad Matta was 39-9 at Xavier, John Beilein was 56-23 at Richmond, Mike Brey was 60-30 at Delaware, Jay Wright was 76-47 after taking over a disaster at Hofstra, Mick Cronin was 42-10 at Murray State, John Thompson was 45-11 at Princeton, Self was 30-12 at Tulsa, Mark Gottfried was 40-12 at Murray State, Ben Howland was 44-28 after taking over a disaster at Northern Arizona, the list goes on and on. Quality coaches will dominate at the MAC level of play. Their major-conference qualities will reveal themselves even more strongly at that level. Groce hasn't done that. Even this year he came in 3rd at 11-5. If you're getting consistently beaten by Keith Dambrot and Geno Ford, what are Tom Izzo and Thad Matta going to do to you?
3. A sweet sixteen is nice. But 3 tournament wins get drowned out under the weight of the other evidence. It was three games against teams that didn't respect them, didn't see them coming, didn't have them thoroughly scouted, and were played at that frenetic, crazy tournament mental pace that isn't a good comparison to normal college basketball. It means far more whether Groce's teams can go win a conference road game, or recover after a deflating loss.
4. Groce's success at Ohio has been built largely around two players, Armon Bassett and Walter Offutt. Both were experienced transfers from major programs. We've just gotten rid of a coach who couldn't develop talented recruits, and we are getting a coach who hasn't shown the ability to develop his own big-time talent either. You can't rely on transfers schooled in the game by better coaches at Illinois.
5. Groce's reputation as a recruiter is almost entirely built around the Oden-Conley class at Ohio State. There are two giant holes to be blown in that feather in his cap, however. First of all, both Oden and Conley were coached in AAU by Groce's half-brother. This brother is no longer working as an AAU coach. Plus, the lead recruiter for that class was really Daequan Cook, who was as active as anyone in convincing Oden and Conley to jump aboard. Groce was in the right place at the right time.
6. I wish it weren't, but race is an issue here. If we were going to hire a Brad Stevens, a brand name, proven guy that would command immediate respect, that would be one thing. But to settle on a white guy with meager qualifications when you've got an arguably better qualified guy like Reggie Theus (not to mention, say, Bruiser Flint or something) seems like it's not giving any weight whatsoever to a desire for diversity. Somewhere in the media there will be a picture of Tim Beckman and John Groce's headshots side-by-side, and, through no fault of their own, they aren't just white, they are apple-cheeked, Norman Rockwell white. It will not look good, and we're wasting a golden chance to make a historic hire.
7. Groce's personality, while great for a feature story, and great for Paul Klee, is just not befitting of a Big Ten head coach. He's the classic energy-guy good cop that is great as an assistant, but lost as a head coach. His schtick will wear thin with major-conference level players, Illinois fans, recruits, coaches, everybody. Everyone complained about Weber's histrionics, but Groce is twice that bad. Every Division 1 college coach is a "hard worker", they are more than that really, it's about the toughest, most endless job you can imagine. When a coach gets the label of a "caffeine-junkie/gym rat/tireless work ethic guy" it's a schtick, and often because they just don't have any other positive qualities to define them.
8. There are just so many other better candidates, even among low-star-power mid-major types. Why has Scott Sutton's name not been brought up? Why hasn't Tim Cluess'? I could go on and on, Bob McKillop, Randy Bennett, Tony Bennett, Brad Brownell, Tony Barbee, Dave Leitao, Jeff Capel, Donnie Jones and those are just names I haven't heard. Chris Collins and Reggie Theus are also excellent candidates that would take the job. Billy Gillispie is also an interesting idea. What the hell happened to Gregg Marshall?
9. I want to respond specifically to the "well, tOSU fans want him to replace Matta" thing. First of all, talk is cheap in that regard, their program is dominant and stable with Matta at the helm, he's going nowhere, so of course their fans want one of "their guys" to replace him, that's just blind, unresearched loyalty with no sense of the risk involved. And secondly, think about it, if Jerrance Howard were to take over, say, Loyola, and perform relatively poorly but go on a fluky tournament run one time, we would be loving on him like white on rice. He's one of our guys, of course we would ignore the flaws and praise him. He is essentially the Jerrance of that program, and that's all it is.
10. Finally, unfortunately, the fan bases reaction to his candidacy. There are genuine concerns, but even if Groce were a great candidate, a coaching hire can sometimes be like an organ transplant, it can get rejected by the host body before you even get a chance to find out whether it works. Ask Ron Zook. We don't want that to happen.
So please, everyone, avoid the false dichotomy that "Well no big-time coaches want the job, the Illinois job sucks, we have to settle for John Groce." It looks like we will have to settle for our next coach, at least in the eyes of the market. But when this process started, my personal shortlist was Chris Collins, Gregg Marshall, Shaka Smart, Reggie Theus, Anthony Grant, in that order. Only #3 (and possibly #5, we aren't sure) have turned us down. This isn't the disaster it looks like, but it will become one if MT panics, grabs the "hot name" in hopes of saving face, and hires a guy who is not fit to be a Big Ten head coach in John Groce.
Now, it looks inevitable that he's the hire. Between that fact, my weariness with the whole subject of the coaching change, the fact that I've wanted to take some time away for awhile, and the old adage that "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all", this is going to be my last post for awhile, maybe for quite a long while, I don't know. ("Good riddance", says pretty much everyone) So I'll sign off just by saying this: If Bruce Weber was our Herb Sendek or Steve Alford, then John Groce is our Sidney Lowe or Todd The Criminal. But that only gets us closer to our Mark Gottfried or Fran McCaffery. Hang in there, Illini Nation.